Football · El Salvador Apertura · 25/10, 22:00

Prediction: Fuerte San Francisco vs Atlético Balboa

Team pages: Fuerte San Francisco · Atlético Balboa

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.53Total

Fuerte San Francisco1.34

Atlético Balboa1.19

1X2

39% 29% 32%

Fuerte San Francisco Draw Atlético Balboa

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Fuerte San Francisco 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

LLLLDDLDWL

Atlético Balboa 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

LLLWLDLLLD

Head-to-head

Fuerte San Francisco 3–3 Atlético Balboa (6 last)

Atlético Balboa1-0Fuerte San Francisco
Fuerte San Francisco0-1Atlético Balboa
Atlético Balboa0-1Fuerte San Francisco
Fuerte San Francisco1-0Atlético Balboa
Atlético Balboa2-0Fuerte San Francisco
Fuerte San Francisco3-1Atlético Balboa

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Fuerte San Francisco 1437 · Atlético Balboa 1434

	Fuerte San Francisco	Draw	Atlético Balboa
Our model	39%	29%	32%
Market	40%	28%	32%

Estimated total (ours) 2.53 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 9.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Fuerte San Francisco	Atlético Balboa
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.9	0.9 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.6	0.1 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/60/30%	0/60/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 3.1	1.4 / 3.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.2	4.5 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.25

X3.20

22.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.77

2 (0)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.90

Under 2.51.90

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 06:41

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.25	Pinn 2.43 ★
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	2.75 → 2.75	Pinn 2.85

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.1% Pinnacle margin 7.9%

Time*	1	X	2
06:37 +3’	2.25	3.20	2.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
06:38 +3’	2.46	2.98	2.86
19:51 +145’	2.41▼	3.12▲	2.81▼
20:05 +57’	2.43▲	3.16▲	2.85▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Fuerte San Francisco 3–0–3 Atlético Balboa

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/08/26 El Salvador Apertura	Atlético Balboa	1-0 HT 0-0	Fuerte San Francisco
20/05/23 El Salvador Liga de Ascenso	Fuerte San Francisco	0-1 HT 0-1	Atlético Balboa
13/05/23 El Salvador Liga de Ascenso	Atlético Balboa	0-1	Fuerte San Francisco
09/04/23 El Salvador Liga de Ascenso	Fuerte San Francisco	1-0	Atlético Balboa
19/02/23 El Salvador Liga de Ascenso	Atlético Balboa	2-0	Fuerte San Francisco
27/11/22 El Salvador Liga de Ascenso	Fuerte San Francisco	3-1 HT 2-0	Atlético Balboa

Standings · El Salvador Apertura

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CD Luis Angel Firpo	15	9	4	2	28	11	31
2	CD FAS	17	9	4	4	28	18	31
3	AD Isidro Metapan	17	9	3	5	23	18	30
4	CD Aguila	17	7	6	4	30	21	27
5	Internacional Santa Tecla	17	6	8	3	24	16	26
6	Alianza FC	16	5	8	3	23	21	23
7	CD Platense Zacatecoluca	16	6	4	6	22	22	22
8	Municipal Limeno	17	6	3	8	26	26	21
9	CD INCA Aruba	17	4	4	9	13	31	16
10	Atlético Balboa	16	3	5	8	17	25	14
11	CD Cacahuatique	17	2	7	8	18	29	13
12	Fuerte San Francisco	16	2	6	8	13	27	12

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Fuerte San Francisco	Atlético Balboa
AD Isidro Metapan	2-3 L	2-3 L
CD Cacahuatique	2-1 W	0-2 L
Internacional Santa Tecla	1-1 D	1-1 D
CD Luis Angel Firpo	0-3 L	1-3 L
CD Platense Zacatecoluca	0-0 D	3-1 W
Alianza FC	2-2 D	0-2 L
CD INCA Aruba	1-2 L	0-1 L
Municipal Limeno	0-2 L	0-2 L
CD FAS	0-1 L	0-1 L
CD Aguila	1-4 L	2-2 D
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 6 L	1 W 2 D 7 L

Better against common opponents: Atlético Balboa (3 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Fuerte San Francisco

LLLLDDLDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	AD Isidro Metapan El Salvador Apertura	1-1	2-3	3	4	L
10/10	CD Cacahuatique El Salvador Apertura	1-1	2-1	4	3	W
05/10	Internacional Santa Tecla El Salvador Apertura	0-0	1-1	3	7	D
01/10	CD Luis Angel Firpo El Salvador Apertura	0-1	0-3	1	4	L
27/09	CD Platense Zacatecoluca El Salvador Apertura	0-0	0-0	7	4	D
24/09	Alianza FC El Salvador Apertura	0-1	2-2	4	7	D
19/09	CD INCA Aruba El Salvador Apertura	1-0	1-2	4	9	L
13/09	Municipal Limeno El Salvador Apertura	0-1	0-2	2	3	L
05/09	CD FAS El Salvador Apertura	0-0	0-1	1	1	L
30/08	CD Aguila El Salvador Apertura	1-1	1-4	2	6	L

Atlético Balboa

LLLWLDLLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	CD Aguila El Salvador Apertura	0-1	2-2	6	3	D
11/10	CD FAS El Salvador Apertura	0-0	0-1	2	7	L
04/10	AD Isidro Metapan El Salvador Apertura	0-0	2-3	5	4	L
29/09	CD Cacahuatique El Salvador Apertura	0-1	0-2	2	6	L
27/09	Internacional Santa Tecla El Salvador Apertura	0-1	1-1	4	3	D
21/09	CD Luis Angel Firpo El Salvador Apertura	1-1	1-3	1	5	L
12/09	CD Platense Zacatecoluca El Salvador Apertura	0-1	3-1	4	5	W
09/09	CD INCA Aruba El Salvador Apertura	0-0	0-1	5	2	L
06/09	Municipal Limeno El Salvador Apertura	0-0	0-2	2	8	L
30/08	Alianza FC El Salvador Apertura	0-0	0-2	1	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Fuerte San Francisco vs Atlético Balboa?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Fuerte San Francisco win (39%). Probabilities: Fuerte San Francisco 39%, draw 29%, Atlético Balboa 32%.

How many goals are expected in Fuerte San Francisco vs Atlético Balboa?

The model expects 2.53 goals (Fuerte San Francisco 1.34 · Atlético Balboa 1.19), with a 52% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Fuerte San Francisco vs Atlético Balboa?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.