Football · El Salvador Apertura · 24/10, 02:00

Prediction: CD INCA Aruba vs Internacional Santa Tecla

Team pages: CD INCA Aruba · Internacional Santa Tecla

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.85Total

CD INCA Aruba1.07

Internacional Santa Tecla1.78

1X2

22% 24% 53%

CD INCA Aruba Draw Internacional Santa Tecla

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

CD INCA Aruba 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DWWLWDWDLL

Internacional Santa Tecla 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

WLWDDDLDDL

Head-to-head

CD INCA Aruba 0–1 Internacional Santa Tecla (1 last)

Internacional Santa Tecla4-1CD INCA Aruba

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · CD INCA Aruba 1489 · Internacional Santa Tecla 1497

	CD INCA Aruba	Draw	Internacional Santa Tecla
Our model	22%	25%	53%
Market	22%	24%	54%

Estimated total (ours) 2.85 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	CD INCA Aruba	Internacional Santa Tecla
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.4	1.3 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 1	0.4 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/20/60%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 3.5	3.1 / 5.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.3	4.2 / 0.6

Odds Bet365

14.00

X3.80

21.67

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.95

2 (-0.75)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.752.00

Under 2.751.80

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:07

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.00 → 4.00	Pinn 4.51 ★
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	1.67 → 1.67	Pinn 1.70

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
00:02 +5’	4.00	3.80	1.67

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
02:23 +45’	4.51	3.55	1.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · CD INCA Aruba 0–0–1 Internacional Santa Tecla

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/08/26 El Salvador Apertura	Internacional Santa Tecla	4-1 HT 0-0	CD INCA Aruba

Standings · El Salvador Apertura

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CD Luis Angel Firpo	15	9	4	2	28	11	31
2	CD FAS	16	9	4	3	27	15	31
3	AD Isidro Metapan	16	9	3	4	23	17	30
4	CD Aguila	16	6	6	4	27	20	24
5	Internacional Santa Tecla	16	5	8	3	22	16	23
6	CD Platense Zacatecoluca	16	6	4	6	22	22	22
7	Alianza FC	15	4	8	3	22	21	20
8	Municipal Limeno	16	6	2	8	23	23	20
9	CD INCA Aruba	16	4	4	8	13	29	16
10	Atlético Balboa	16	3	5	8	17	25	14
11	CD Cacahuatique	16	2	6	8	15	26	12
12	Fuerte San Francisco	16	2	6	8	13	27	12

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	CD INCA Aruba	Internacional Santa Tecla
CD Luis Angel Firpo	0-2 L	0-3 L
CD Platense Zacatecoluca	1-4 L	3-0 W
CD FAS	1-1 D	2-2 D
Municipal Limeno	2-1 W	1-2 L
Alianza FC	1-1 D	2-2 D
Fuerte San Francisco	2-1 W	1-1 D
CD Aguila	1-3 L	1-2 L
Atlético Balboa	1-0 W	1-1 D
AD Isidro Metapan	1-0 W	0-0 D
CD Cacahuatique	1-1 D	2-0 W
Record vs common	4 W 3 D 3 L	2 W 5 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: CD INCA Aruba (5 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

CD INCA Aruba

DWWLWDWDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/10	CD Luis Angel Firpo El Salvador Apertura	0-2	0-2	2	3	L
10/10	CD Platense Zacatecoluca El Salvador Apertura	1-3	1-4	4	7	L
05/10	CD FAS El Salvador Apertura	0-1	1-1	4	7	D
02/10	Municipal Limeno El Salvador Apertura	2-1	2-1	2	6	W
27/09	Alianza FC El Salvador Apertura	0-1	1-1	6	2	D
19/09	Fuerte San Francisco El Salvador Apertura	0-1	2-1	6	9	W
12/09	CD Aguila El Salvador Apertura	0-1	1-3	3	0	L
09/09	Atlético Balboa El Salvador Apertura	0-0	1-0	6	2	W
06/09	AD Isidro Metapan El Salvador Apertura	1-0	1-0	2	6	W
29/08	CD Cacahuatique El Salvador Apertura	0-0	1-1	0	4	D

Internacional Santa Tecla

WLWDDDLDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Municipal Limeno El Salvador Apertura	1-1	1-2	4	3	L
12/10	Alianza FC El Salvador Apertura	0-1	2-2	6	8	D
05/10	Fuerte San Francisco El Salvador Apertura	0-0	1-1	8	7	D
30/09	CD Aguila El Salvador Apertura	0-0	1-2	3	1	L
27/09	Atlético Balboa El Salvador Apertura	1-0	1-1	12	3	D
20/09	AD Isidro Metapan El Salvador Apertura	0-0	0-0	4	5	D
17/09	CD FAS El Salvador Apertura	1-2	2-2	8	6	D
13/09	CD Cacahuatique El Salvador Apertura	1-0	2-0	4	2	W
07/09	CD Luis Angel Firpo El Salvador Apertura	0-3	0-3	1	5	L
29/08	CD Platense Zacatecoluca El Salvador Apertura	0-0	3-0	5	8	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in CD INCA Aruba vs Internacional Santa Tecla?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Internacional Santa Tecla win (53%). Probabilities: CD INCA Aruba 22%, draw 24%, Internacional Santa Tecla 53%.

How many goals are expected in CD INCA Aruba vs Internacional Santa Tecla?

The model expects 2.85 goals (CD INCA Aruba 1.07 · Internacional Santa Tecla 1.78), with a 52% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in CD INCA Aruba vs Internacional Santa Tecla?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.