Football · England National League South · 02/11, 20:45

Prediction: Chelmsford vs Farnham

Team pages: Chelmsford · Farnham

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.06Total

Chelmsford1.8

Farnham1.26

1X2

49% 24% 26%

Chelmsford Draw Farnham

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Chelmsford 4-6-0 (W-D-L)

WDDDDDWDWW

Farnham 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WWDWWDLWWL

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Chelmsford 1575 · Farnham 1533

	Chelmsford	Draw	Farnham
Our model	49%	25%	26%
Market	50%	24%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 3.06 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Chelmsford (rating 1575 vs 1533).
Cards-heavy: 6.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Chelmsford	Farnham
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1	2.3 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	1.5 / 0.3	1.2 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/40/0%	60/20/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 4.7	1.7 / 3.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.3	2.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.80

X3.75

23.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.88

2 (+0.5)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 3.252.00

Under 3.251.80

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 19:12

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.70 → 1.80▲	Pinn 1.91 ★
X	3.75 → 3.75	Pinn 3.91
2	3.90 → 3.40▼	Pinn 3.43

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.6% Pinnacle margin 7.1%

Time*	1	X	2
17:25 +16’	1.70	3.75	3.90
19:08 +3’	1.80▲	3.75	3.40▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
19:06 +6’	1.91	3.91	3.43

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · England National League South

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Truro City	14	9	3	2	27	12	30
2	Maidstone Utd	15	9	2	4	26	18	29
3	Ebbsfleet United	13	8	4	1	29	10	28
4	Salisbury FC	14	8	4	2	25	10	28
5	Billericay Town	13	7	4	2	32	16	25
6	Tonbridge Angels	15	7	3	5	27	16	24
7	Dorking Wanderers	14	6	6	2	31	21	24
8	Dag & Red	15	7	3	5	13	11	24
9	Farnham	14	7	2	5	27	19	23
10	Horsham	15	5	7	3	21	16	22
11	Dover	14	6	4	4	20	19	22
12	Chelmsford	13	4	9	0	21	12	21
13	Torquay	14	5	5	4	22	17	20
14	Folkestone Invicta	15	5	5	5	22	18	20
15	Weston Super Mare	14	5	3	6	21	21	18
16	Farnborough	14	5	2	7	12	25	17
17	Braintree Town	14	5	1	8	21	34	16
18	AFC Totton	15	5	1	9	14	27	16
19	Maidenhead Utd	15	3	6	6	14	19	15
20	Hemel Hempstead	15	3	6	6	14	22	15
21	Chesham	14	3	2	9	20	32	11
22	Hampton & Richmond	14	2	3	9	16	33	9
23	Walton & Hersham	14	2	2	10	10	33	8
24	Slough	15	1	1	13	15	39	4

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Chelmsford	Farnham
Dover	1-0 W	0-1 L
Chesham	5-0 W	4-2 W
Horsham	0-0 D	2-1 W
Salisbury FC	1-1 D	1-2 L
Weston Super Mare	1-1 D	3-2 W
Record vs common	2 W 3 D 0 L	3 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Chelmsford (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Chelmsford

WDDDDDWDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	AFC Totton England National League South	3-0	3-1	6	5	W
27/10	Dover England National League South	1-0	1-0	4	7	W
24/10	Tonbridge Angels England National League South	1-0	3-3	8	3	D
10/10	Chesham England National League South	5-0	5-0	2	3	W
26/09	Horsham England National League South	0-0	0-0	5	6	D
12/09	Hampton & Richmond England National League South	0-0	1-1	2	5	D
08/09	Dorking Wanderers England National League South	3-2	3-3	2	5	D
05/09	Salisbury FC England National League South	1-1	1-1	3	4	D
31/08	Weston Super Mare England National League South	0-0	1-1	5	3	D
29/08	Maidenhead Utd England National League South	1-0	1-0	10	3	W

Farnham

WWDWWDLWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Dover England National League South	0-1	0-1	5	3	L
27/10	Chesham England National League South	2-1	4-2	1	1	W
24/10	Braintree Town England National League South	2-0	6-0	6	3	W
10/10	Salisbury FC England National League South	1-0	1-2	5	3	L
06/10	Truro City England National League South	0-2	2-2	4	2	D
26/09	Weston Super Mare England National League South	3-1	3-2	0	3	W
12/09	Folkestone Invicta England National League South	1-0	2-1	2	1	W
05/09	Hemel Hempstead England National League South	1-1	1-1	6	3	D
31/08	Torquay England National League South	0-0	2-0	1	5	W
29/08	Horsham England National League South	2-1	2-1	2	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Chelmsford vs Farnham?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Chelmsford win (49%). Probabilities: Chelmsford 49%, draw 24%, Farnham 26%.

How many goals are expected in Chelmsford vs Farnham?

The model expects 3.06 goals (Chelmsford 1.8 · Farnham 1.26), with a 55% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Chelmsford vs Farnham?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.