Football · England National League South · 07/11, 16:00

Prediction: Ebbsfleet United vs Chesham

Team pages: Ebbsfleet United · Chesham

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.12Total

Ebbsfleet United2.82

Chesham1.31

1X2

68% 18% 14%

Ebbsfleet United Draw Chesham

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

2-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

Ebbsfleet United 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

DWWWWDWWLW

Chesham 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

WDLLWLLLLD

Head-to-head

Ebbsfleet United 1–1 Chesham (2 last)

Chesham4-1Ebbsfleet United
Ebbsfleet United2-1Chesham

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Ebbsfleet United 1576 · Chesham 1448

	Ebbsfleet United	Draw	Chesham
Our model	68%	17%	15%
Market	67%	19%	14%

Estimated total (ours) 4.12 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.9

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 75%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ebbsfleet United (rating 1576 vs 1448).
High corners: 12.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Ebbsfleet United	Chesham
Goals for / against (FT)	3 / 0.8	1.6 / 2.5
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.1	0.7 / 1.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	30/10/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.1 / 6.2	2.4 / 5.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.3	3.4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.33

X4.75

26.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.93

2 (+1.5)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.82

Under 3.251.98

Diff.: 0.7 · xG: 3.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:19

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.33 → 1.33	Bet365 1.33
X	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75
2	6.50 → 6.50	Bet365 6.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
16:12 +7’	1.33	4.75	6.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Ebbsfleet United 1–0–1 Chesham

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
21/02/26 England National League South	Chesham	4-1 HT 0-1	Ebbsfleet United
22/11/25 England National League South	Ebbsfleet United	2-1 HT 1-1	Chesham

Standings · England National League South

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Ebbsfleet United	14	9	4	1	35	10	31
2	Truro City	14	9	3	2	27	12	30
3	Maidstone Utd	15	9	2	4	26	18	29
4	Salisbury FC	14	8	4	2	25	10	28
5	Dorking Wanderers	15	7	6	2	34	23	27
6	Farnham	15	8	2	5	29	19	26
7	Billericay Town	13	7	4	2	32	16	25
8	Tonbridge Angels	15	7	3	5	27	16	24
9	Dag & Red	15	7	3	5	13	11	24
10	Horsham	15	5	7	3	21	16	22
11	Dover	14	6	4	4	20	19	22
12	Chelmsford	14	4	9	1	21	14	21
13	Torquay	14	5	5	4	22	17	20
14	Folkestone Invicta	15	5	5	5	22	18	20
15	Weston Super Mare	14	5	3	6	21	21	18
16	Farnborough	15	5	2	8	12	31	17
17	Braintree Town	14	5	1	8	21	34	16
18	AFC Totton	15	5	1	9	14	27	16
19	Maidenhead Utd	15	3	6	6	14	19	15
20	Hemel Hempstead	15	3	6	6	14	22	15
21	Chesham	14	3	2	9	20	32	11
22	Hampton & Richmond	15	2	3	10	18	36	9
23	Walton & Hersham	14	2	2	10	10	33	8
24	Slough	15	1	1	13	15	39	4

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Ebbsfleet United	Chesham
Truro City	0-3 L	1-3 L
Maidenhead Utd	4-0 W	0-4 L
Horsham	2-2 D	4-1 W
AFC Totton	5-0 W	4-0 W
Folkestone Invicta	1-0 W	2-2 D
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 1 L	2 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Ebbsfleet United (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Ebbsfleet United

DWWWWDWWLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/11	Farnborough England National League South	3-0	6-0	4	2	W
31/10	Truro City England National League South	0-0	0-3	2	7	L
27/10	Maidstone Utd England National League South	1-0	3-1	6	7	W
24/10	Maidenhead Utd England National League South	2-0	4-0	5	4	W
20/10	Horsham England National League South	0-1	2-2	10	5	D
17/10	Weston Super Mare England National League South	4-0	6-1	10	5	W
13/10	AFC Totton England National League South	0-0	5-0	5	5	W
10/10	Hampton & Richmond England National League South	0-0	2-0	6	2	W
06/10	Folkestone Invicta England National League South	1-0	1-0	8	1	W
29/09	Slough England National League South	0-0	1-1	6	4	D

Chesham

WDLLWLLLLD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Folkestone Invicta England National League South	1-0	2-2	3	3	D
27/10	Farnham England National League South	1-2	2-4	7	1	L
24/10	Dag & Red England National League South	0-2	0-2	10	3	L
10/10	Chelmsford England National League South	0-5	0-5	3	3	L
26/09	Maidenhead Utd England National League South	0-1	0-4	5	5	L
12/09	Horsham England National League South	1-0	4-1	6	11	W
08/09	Billericay Town England National League South	0-2	1-2	9	3	L
05/09	Truro City England National League South	1-1	1-3	6	1	L
31/08	Dover England National League South	0-1	2-2	7	2	D
29/08	AFC Totton England National League South	3-0	4-0	3	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Ebbsfleet United vs Chesham?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Ebbsfleet United win (68%). Probabilities: Ebbsfleet United 68%, draw 18%, Chesham 14%.

How many goals are expected in Ebbsfleet United vs Chesham?

The model expects 4.12 goals (Ebbsfleet United 2.82 · Chesham 1.31), with a 58% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Ebbsfleet United vs Chesham?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.