Football · Ethiopia Premier League · 17/10, 14:00
Prediction: Kedus Giorgis vs Ethiopian Coffee
Team pages: Kedus Giorgis · Ethiopian Coffee
Prediction summary
Expected goals
1.72Total
Kedus Giorgis0.98
Ethiopian Coffee0.74
1X2
Kedus Giorgis
Draw
Ethiopian Coffee
Markets
Over 1.5 goals 52%
Not both to score 55%
Most likely score
0-0 19%
Recent form · 10 last
Kedus Giorgis
5-4-1 (W-D-L)
Ethiopian Coffee
2-4-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Kedus Giorgis
1–2–3
Ethiopian Coffee
(6 last)
- Kedus Giorgis1-3Ethiopian Coffee
- Ethiopian Coffee0-1Kedus Giorgis
- Ethiopian Coffee2-0Kedus Giorgis
- Kedus Giorgis0-0Ethiopian Coffee
- Kedus Giorgis1-1Ethiopian Coffee
- Ethiopian Coffee1-0Kedus Giorgis
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Kedus Giorgis 1526 · Ethiopian Coffee 1480
| Kedus Giorgis | Draw | Ethiopian Coffee | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 39% | 36% | 25% |
| Market | 41% | 32% | 27% |
Estimated total (ours)
1.72 goals · Bet365 line 1.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 69%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Kedus Giorgis (rating 1526 vs 1480).
- H2H favours Ethiopian Coffee: 3-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Kedus Giorgis | Ethiopian Coffee | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1 / 0.5 | 0.7 / 0.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.2 | 0.3 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/60/0% | 10/70/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.6 / 3.3 | 1.4 / 4.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.1 / 0.2 | 4.9 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Kedus Giorgis 1–2–3 Ethiopian Coffee
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/04/26 Ethiopia Premier League | Kedus Giorgis | 1-3 HT 1-1 | Ethiopian Coffee |
| 19/10/25 Ethiopia Premier League | Ethiopian Coffee | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Kedus Giorgis |
| 14/06/25 Ethiopia Premier League | Ethiopian Coffee | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Kedus Giorgis |
| 02/02/25 Ethiopia Premier League | Kedus Giorgis | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Ethiopian Coffee |
| 29/06/24 Ethiopia Premier League | Kedus Giorgis | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Ethiopian Coffee |
| 30/12/23 Ethiopia Premier League | Ethiopian Coffee | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Kedus Giorgis |
Standings · Ethiopia Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ethiopian Insurance FC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 2 | Adama City | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 2 | Bahir Dar Kenema FC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 2 | Mechal SC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 2 | Ethiopia Nigd Bank | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 2 | Shaggar City | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 7 | Halaba City | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 7 | Negelle Arsi | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 7 | Kedus Giorgis | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 7 | Welwalo Adigrat | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 11 | Fasil Kenema | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 11 | Wolaita Dicha | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 13 | Ethio Electric FC | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 13 | Ethiopian Coffee | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 13 | Hadiya Hossana | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 13 | Hawassa City FC | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 13 | Sidama Bunna | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 18 | Gamo Chencha | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Kedus Giorgis | Ethiopian Coffee |
|---|---|---|
| Fasil Kenema | 1-0 W | 2-1 W |
| Mechal SC | 3-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Dire Dawa | 2-1 W | 0-0 D |
| Hawassa City FC | 1-0 W | 0-1 L |
| Wolaita Dicha | 0-0 D | 0-0 D |
| Mekelle 70 Enderta FC | 1-0 W | 3-0 W |
| Ethiopia Nigd Bank | 0-2 L | 0-0 D |
| Sidama Bunna | 0-0 D | 1-2 L |
| Record vs common | 5 W 2 D 1 L | 2 W 4 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Kedus Giorgis (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Kedus Giorgis
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | Negelle Arsi Ethiopia Premier League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 02/07 | Welwalo Adigrat Ethiopia Premier League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 26/06 | Fasil Kenema Ethiopia Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 14/06 | Mechal SC Ethiopia Premier League |
1-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 28/05 | Dire Dawa Ethiopia Premier League |
2-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 20/05 | Hawassa City FC Ethiopia Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 14/05 | Wolaita Dicha Ethiopia Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 09/05 | Mekelle 70 Enderta FC Ethiopia Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 05/05 | Ethiopia Nigd Bank Ethiopia Premier League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 01/05 | Sidama Bunna Ethiopia Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | D |
Ethiopian Coffee
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10 | Shaggar City Ethiopia Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 03/07 | Wolaita Dicha Ethiopia Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 26/06 | Mekelle 70 Enderta FC Ethiopia Premier League |
1-0 | 3-0 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 20/06 | Ethiopia Nigd Bank Ethiopia Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 14/06 | Sidama Bunna Ethiopia Premier League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 28/05 | Hawassa City FC Ethiopia Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 20/05 | Fasil Kenema Ethiopia Premier League |
0-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 9 | W |
| 14/05 | Shire Endaselassie FC Ethiopia Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 09/05 | Mechal SC Ethiopia Premier League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 1 | 6 | D |
| 05/05 | Dire Dawa Ethiopia Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 5 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Kedus Giorgis vs Ethiopian Coffee?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Kedus Giorgis win (40%). Probabilities: Kedus Giorgis 40%, draw 34%, Ethiopian Coffee 27%.
How many goals are expected in Kedus Giorgis vs Ethiopian Coffee?
The model expects 1.72 goals (Kedus Giorgis 0.98 · Ethiopian Coffee 0.74), with a 53% chance of under 1.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Kedus Giorgis vs Ethiopian Coffee?
The model gives a 55% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.