Football · Ethiopia Premier League · 22/10, 14:00

Prediction: Hawassa City FC vs Ethiopia Nigd Bank

Team pages: Hawassa City FC · Ethiopia Nigd Bank

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.13Total

Hawassa City FC1.11

Ethiopia Nigd Bank1.02

1X2

36% 33% 31%

Hawassa City FC Draw Ethiopia Nigd Bank

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 64% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Hawassa City FC 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

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Ethiopia Nigd Bank 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Hawassa City FC 1–1–4 Ethiopia Nigd Bank (6 last)

Ethiopia Nigd Bank4-2Hawassa City FC
Hawassa City FC1-1Ethiopia Nigd Bank
Hawassa City FC2-1Ethiopia Nigd Bank
Ethiopia Nigd Bank2-0Hawassa City FC
Ethiopia Nigd Bank2-1Hawassa City FC
Hawassa City FC0-3Ethiopia Nigd Bank

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Hawassa City FC 1441 · Ethiopia Nigd Bank 1529

	Hawassa City FC	Draw	Ethiopia Nigd Bank
Our model	36%	32%	31%
Market	36%	33%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 2.13 goals · Bet365 line 1.75 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ethiopia Nigd Bank (rating 1441 vs 1529).
H2H favours Ethiopia Nigd Bank: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 9.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Hawassa City FC	Ethiopia Nigd Bank
Goals for / against (FT)	0.6 / 1	1 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.1 / 0.7	0.4 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/50/50%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1 / 3.9	0.7 / 2.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.4	4.7 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.50

X2.70

22.88

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.77

2 (0)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 1.751.90

Under 1.751.90

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 1.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 04:04

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.50 → 2.50	Bet365 2.50
X	2.70 → 2.70	Bet365 2.70
2	2.88 → 2.88	Bet365 2.88

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
03:47 +17’	2.50	2.70	2.88

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Hawassa City FC 1–1–4 Ethiopia Nigd Bank

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/03/26 Ethiopia Premier League	Ethiopia Nigd Bank	4-2 HT 2-1	Hawassa City FC
09/11/25 Ethiopia Premier League	Hawassa City FC	1-1 HT 1-1	Ethiopia Nigd Bank
22/04/25 Ethiopia Premier League	Hawassa City FC	2-1 HT 1-1	Ethiopia Nigd Bank
05/02/25 Ethiopia Premier League	Ethiopia Nigd Bank	2-0 HT 1-0	Hawassa City FC
11/04/24 Ethiopia Premier League	Ethiopia Nigd Bank	2-1 HT 0-1	Hawassa City FC
03/12/23 Ethiopia Premier League	Hawassa City FC	0-3 HT 0-3	Ethiopia Nigd Bank

Standings · Ethiopia Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Ethiopia Nigd Bank	2	2	0	0	2	0	6
2	Ethiopian Insurance FC	2	1	1	0	3	1	4
3	Halaba City	2	1	1	0	2	1	4
4	Adama City	2	1	1	0	1	0	4
5	Ethio Electric FC	3	1	1	1	1	1	4
5	Shaggar City	3	1	1	1	1	1	4
7	Ethiopian Coffee	2	1	0	1	2	2	3
8	Bahir Dar Kenema FC	2	1	0	1	1	1	3
8	Mechal SC	2	1	0	1	1	1	3
10	Negelle Arsi	2	0	2	0	1	1	2
10	Wolaita Dicha	2	0	2	0	1	1	2
12	Welwalo Adigrat	1	0	1	0	1	1	1
13	Fasil Kenema	1	0	1	0	0	0	1
14	Kedus Giorgis	2	0	1	1	2	3	1
15	Hadiya Hossana	2	0	1	1	1	2	1
15	Hawassa City FC	2	0	1	1	1	2	1
17	Sidama Bunna	1	0	0	1	0	1	0
18	Gamo Chencha	1	0	0	1	0	2	0

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Hawassa City FC	Ethiopia Nigd Bank
Ethiopian Insurance FC	1-1 D	1-2 L
Mechal SC	0-1 L	1-0 W
Adama City	2-3 L	1-2 L
Ethio Electric FC	1-1 D	2-1 W
Bahir Dar Kenema FC	0-0 D	2-2 D
Negelle Arsi	1-2 L	0-2 L
Ethiopian Coffee	1-0 W	0-0 D
Hadiya Hossana	0-1 L	0-0 D
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 4 L	2 W 3 D 3 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Hawassa City FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Ethiopian Insurance FC Ethiopia Premier League	0-1	1-1	5	7	D
11/10	Mechal SC Ethiopia Premier League	0-0	0-1	1	2	L
02/07	Adama City Ethiopia Premier League	1-3	2-3	4	1	L
28/06	Ethio Electric FC Ethiopia Premier League	0-1	1-1	–	–	D
21/06	Bahir Dar Kenema FC Ethiopia Premier League	0-0	0-0	2	6	D
15/06	Negelle Arsi Ethiopia Premier League	0-1	1-2	7	5	L
28/05	Ethiopian Coffee Ethiopia Premier League	0-0	1-0	0	5	W
20/05	Kedus Giorgis Ethiopia Premier League	0-1	0-1	5	7	L
16/05	Arba Minch Ethiopia Premier League	0-0	0-0	5	6	D
09/05	Hadiya Hossana Ethiopia Premier League	0-0	0-1	6	5	L

Ethiopia Nigd Bank

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Mechal SC Ethiopia Premier League	0-0	1-0	0	6	W
11/10	Sidama Bunna Ethiopia Premier League	1-0	1-0	2	8	W
03/07	Bahir Dar Kenema FC Ethiopia Premier League	1-0	2-2	7	4	D
26/06	Negelle Arsi Ethiopia Premier League	0-1	0-2	3	7	L
20/06	Ethiopian Coffee Ethiopia Premier League	0-0	0-0	4	5	D
15/06	Adama City Ethiopia Premier League	0-1	1-2	2	6	L
29/05	Ethio Electric FC Ethiopia Premier League	1-0	2-1	0	2	W
19/05	Hadiya Hossana Ethiopia Premier League	0-0	0-0	3	3	D
15/05	Shaggar City Ethiopia Premier League	1-0	2-1	0	3	W
11/05	Ethiopian Insurance FC Ethiopia Premier League	0-0	1-2	5	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Hawassa City FC vs Ethiopia Nigd Bank?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Hawassa City FC win (36%). Probabilities: Hawassa City FC 36%, draw 33%, Ethiopia Nigd Bank 31%.

How many goals are expected in Hawassa City FC vs Ethiopia Nigd Bank?

The model expects 2.13 goals (Hawassa City FC 1.11 · Ethiopia Nigd Bank 1.02), with a 53% chance of over 1.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Hawassa City FC vs Ethiopia Nigd Bank?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.