Football · Ethiopia Premier League · 27/10, 13:00

Prediction: Ethiopian Insurance FC vs Mechal SC

Team pages: Ethiopian Insurance FC · Mechal SC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.84Total

Ethiopian Insurance FC0.87

Mechal SC0.97

1X2

31% 33% 36%

Ethiopian Insurance FC Draw Mechal SC

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 56% Not both to score 53%

Most likely score

0-0 17%

Recent form · 10 last

Ethiopian Insurance FC 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

WDDDWLLLWD

Mechal SC 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WDLLWLDWLW

Head-to-head

Ethiopian Insurance FC 2–1–3 Mechal SC (6 last)

Mechal SC1-0Ethiopian Insurance FC
Ethiopian Insurance FC0-1Mechal SC
Ethiopian Insurance FC2-0Mechal SC
Mechal SC3-1Ethiopian Insurance FC
Mechal SC0-0Ethiopian Insurance FC
Mechal SC1-2Ethiopian Insurance FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Ethiopian Insurance FC 1490 · Mechal SC 1510

	Ethiopian Insurance FC	Draw	Mechal SC
Our model	30%	35%	35%
Market	31%	32%	37%

Estimated total (ours) 1.84 goals · Bet365 line 1.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 70%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Mechal SC: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Ethiopian Insurance FC	Mechal SC
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 0.9	0.9 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.3	0.3 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/60/10%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1 / 2.5	1.8 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.4	4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.88

X2.80

22.45

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)2.08

2 (0)1.73

Line ⓘ

Over 1.751.82

Under 1.751.98

Diff.: 0 · xG: 1.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:07

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.88 → 2.88	Pinn 3.21 ★
X	2.80 → 2.80	Bet365 2.80
2	2.45 → 2.45	Bet365 2.45

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3% Pinnacle margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
13:01 +6’	2.88	2.80	2.45

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
13:38 +25’	3.21	2.63	2.35

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Ethiopian Insurance FC 2–1–3 Mechal SC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/06/26 Ethiopia Premier League	Mechal SC	1-0 HT 0-0	Ethiopian Insurance FC
26/01/26 Ethiopia Premier League	Ethiopian Insurance FC	0-1 HT 0-1	Mechal SC
10/06/25 Ethiopia Premier League	Ethiopian Insurance FC	2-0 HT 1-0	Mechal SC
30/03/25 Ethiopia Cup	Mechal SC	3-1 HT 0-1	Ethiopian Insurance FC
11/12/24 Ethiopia Premier League	Mechal SC	0-0 HT 0-0	Ethiopian Insurance FC
13/04/24 Ethiopia Premier League	Mechal SC	1-2 HT 1-1	Ethiopian Insurance FC

Standings · Ethiopia Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Ethiopia Nigd Bank	3	2	1	0	3	1	7
2	Ethio Electric FC	4	2	1	1	2	1	7
3	Bahir Dar Kenema FC	3	2	0	1	4	2	6
4	Mechal SC	3	2	0	1	2	1	6
5	Negelle Arsi	3	1	2	0	4	1	5
6	Halaba City	3	1	2	0	3	2	5
7	Adama City	3	1	2	0	2	1	5
8	Ethiopian Insurance FC	2	1	1	0	3	1	4
9	Shaggar City	3	1	1	1	1	1	4
10	Fasil Kenema	3	0	3	0	1	1	3
11	Ethiopian Coffee	4	1	0	3	2	6	3
12	Kedus Giorgis	3	0	2	1	3	4	2
13	Hawassa City FC	3	0	2	1	2	3	2
14	Hadiya Hossana	3	0	2	1	1	2	2
15	Wolaita Dicha	3	0	2	1	2	4	2
16	Welwalo Adigrat	1	0	1	0	1	1	1
17	Sidama Bunna	1	0	0	1	0	1	0
18	Gamo Chencha	2	0	0	2	0	3	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Ethiopian Insurance FC	Mechal SC
Hawassa City FC	1-1 D	1-0 W
Gamo Chencha	2-0 W	1-0 W
Ethiopia Nigd Bank	2-1 W	0-1 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 0 L	2 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Ethiopian Insurance FC (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Ethiopian Insurance FC

WDDDWLLLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Hawassa City FC Ethiopia Premier League	1-0	1-1	2	7	D
11/10	Gamo Chencha Ethiopia Premier League	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
01/07	Fasil Kenema Ethiopia Premier League	0-0	0-1	2	3	L
27/06	Shire Endaselassie FC Ethiopia Premier League	0-2	0-3	2	2	L
21/06	Mechal SC Ethiopia Premier League	0-0	0-1	4	1	L
14/06	Dire Dawa Ethiopia Premier League	1-0	1-0	4	6	W
30/05	Welwalo Adigrat Ethiopia Premier League	1-1	1-1	–	–	D
19/05	Wolaita Dicha Ethiopia Premier League	0-0	0-0	2	3	D
15/05	Mekelle 70 Enderta FC Ethiopia Premier League	0-0	1-1	3	5	D
11/05	Ethiopia Nigd Bank Ethiopia Premier League	0-0	2-1	1	3	W

Mechal SC

WDLLWLDWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/10	Gamo Chencha Ethiopia Premier League	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
18/10	Ethiopia Nigd Bank Ethiopia Premier League	0-0	0-1	4	6	L
11/10	Hawassa City FC Ethiopia Premier League	0-0	1-0	5	2	W
03/07	Hadiya Hossana Ethiopia Premier League	0-0	0-0	9	2	D
28/06	Shaggar City Ethiopia Premier League	0-2	0-2	4	2	L
21/06	Ethiopian Insurance FC Ethiopia Premier League	0-0	1-0	5	1	W
14/06	Kedus Giorgis Ethiopia Premier League	0-1	0-3	8	7	L
28/05	Arba Minch Ethiopia Premier League	0-1	1-2	6	4	L
19/05	Bahir Dar Kenema FC Ethiopia Premier League	0-1	1-1	5	5	D
14/05	Negelle Arsi Ethiopia Premier League	2-0	4-0	3	8	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Ethiopian Insurance FC vs Mechal SC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Mechal SC win (36%). Probabilities: Ethiopian Insurance FC 31%, draw 33%, Mechal SC 36%.

How many goals are expected in Ethiopian Insurance FC vs Mechal SC?

The model expects 1.84 goals (Ethiopian Insurance FC 0.87 · Mechal SC 0.97), with a 50% chance of over 1.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Ethiopian Insurance FC vs Mechal SC?

The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.