Prediction: Negelle Arsi vs Adama City
Team pages: Negelle Arsi · Adama City
See it on the live radar ↗- Adama City1-2Negelle Arsi
- Negelle Arsi2-1Adama City
| Negelle Arsi | Draw | Adama City | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 39% | 32% | 29% |
| Market | 40% | 31% | 30% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Negelle Arsi (rating 1539 vs 1489).
- H2H favours Negelle Arsi: 2-0-0.
- Cards-heavy: 9.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Negelle Arsi | Adama City | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.9 / 1 | 0.8 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.5 | 0.7 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/40/30% | 40/50/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.1 / 3.8 | 2.3 / 4.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.4 / 0.1 | 4.3 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Negelle Arsi 2–0–0 Adama City
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/04/26 Ethiopia Premier League | Adama City | 1-2 HT 0-0 | Negelle Arsi |
| 20/11/25 Ethiopia Premier League | Negelle Arsi | 2-1 HT 0-0 | Adama City |
Standings · Ethiopia Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ethiopia Nigd Bank | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 7 |
| 2 | Ethio Electric FC | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7 |
| 3 | Bahir Dar Kenema FC | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 6 |
| 4 | Mechal SC | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 6 |
| 5 | Negelle Arsi | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 5 |
| 6 | Halaba City | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 5 |
| 7 | Adama City | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 8 | Ethiopian Insurance FC | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| 9 | Shaggar City | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 10 | Fasil Kenema | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 11 | Ethiopian Coffee | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 3 |
| 12 | Kedus Giorgis | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 |
| 13 | Hawassa City FC | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| 14 | Hadiya Hossana | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| 15 | Wolaita Dicha | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 |
| 16 | Welwalo Adigrat | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 17 | Sidama Bunna | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 18 | Gamo Chencha | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Negelle Arsi | Adama City |
|---|---|---|
| Ethio Electric FC | 0-0 D | 1-0 W |
| Kedus Giorgis | 1-1 D | 1-1 D |
| Mekelle 70 Enderta FC | 0-3 L | 0-0 D |
| Ethiopia Nigd Bank | 2-0 W | 2-1 W |
| Sidama Bunna | 1-1 D | 0-1 L |
| Hawassa City FC | 2-1 W | 3-2 W |
| Wolaita Dicha | 0-0 D | 0-2 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 4 D 1 L | 3 W 2 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Negelle Arsi (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Negelle Arsi
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/10 | Ethiopian Coffee Ethiopia Premier League |
2-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 16/10 | Ethio Electric FC Ethiopia Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 10/10 | Kedus Giorgis Ethiopia Premier League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 01/07 | Mekelle 70 Enderta FC Ethiopia Premier League |
0-2 | 0-3 | 8 | 7 | L |
| 26/06 | Ethiopia Nigd Bank Ethiopia Premier League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 20/06 | Sidama Bunna Ethiopia Premier League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 7 | D |
| 15/06 | Hawassa City FC Ethiopia Premier League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 04/06 | Wolaita Dicha Ethiopia Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 3 | D |
| 21/05 | Shire Endaselassie FC Ethiopia Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 3 | D |
| 14/05 | Mechal SC Ethiopia Premier League |
0-2 | 0-4 | 5 | 8 | L |
Adama City
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/10 | Kedus Giorgis Ethiopia Premier League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 0 | 4 | D |
| 16/10 | Shaggar City Ethiopia Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 09/10 | Ethio Electric FC Ethiopia Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 4 | W |
| 02/07 | Hawassa City FC Ethiopia Premier League |
3-1 | 3-2 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 28/06 | Wolaita Dicha Ethiopia Premier League |
0-0 | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 21/06 | Mekelle 70 Enderta FC Ethiopia Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 15/06 | Ethiopia Nigd Bank Ethiopia Premier League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 30/05 | Sidama Bunna Ethiopia Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 21/05 | Welwalo Adigrat Ethiopia Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 5 | D |
| 16/05 | Fasil Kenema Ethiopia Premier League |
1-1 | 1-3 | 3 | 5 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Negelle Arsi vs Adama City?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Negelle Arsi win (39%). Probabilities: Negelle Arsi 39%, draw 31%, Adama City 29%.
How many goals are expected in Negelle Arsi vs Adama City?
The model expects 2.16 goals (Negelle Arsi 1.18 · Adama City 0.98), with a 51% chance of under 2 goals.
Will both teams score in Negelle Arsi vs Adama City?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.