Football · Ethiopia Premier League · 22/10, 14:00

Prediction: Kedus Giorgis vs Adama City

Team pages: Kedus Giorgis · Adama City

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.74Total

Kedus Giorgis1.06

Adama City0.68

1X2

44% 33% 23%

Kedus Giorgis Draw Adama City

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 53% Not both to score 55%

Most likely score

0-0 19%

Recent form · 10 last

Kedus Giorgis 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

WDWWWDWDDL

Adama City 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WLDLWDLWWD

Head-to-head

Kedus Giorgis 2–1–3 Adama City (6 last)

Kedus Giorgis1-0Adama City
Adama City1-0Kedus Giorgis
Kedus Giorgis0-1Adama City
Adama City1-2Kedus Giorgis
Adama City2-1Kedus Giorgis
Kedus Giorgis2-2Adama City

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Kedus Giorgis 1522 · Adama City 1514

	Kedus Giorgis	Draw	Adama City
Our model	43%	35%	22%
Market	45%	31%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 1.74 goals · Bet365 line 1.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 70%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Adama City: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 8.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Kedus Giorgis	Adama City
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 0.5	1.1 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.2	0.8 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/60/0%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 3.5	2.3 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0.5	4.7 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.00

X2.88

23.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.80

2 (+0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 1.751.95

Under 1.751.85

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 1.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 03:04

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00
X	2.88 → 2.88	Bet365 2.88
2	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
02:47 +16’	2.00	2.88	3.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Kedus Giorgis 2–1–3 Adama City

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/04/26 Ethiopia Premier League	Kedus Giorgis	1-0 HT 0-0	Adama City
06/12/25 Ethiopia Premier League	Adama City	1-0 HT 1-0	Kedus Giorgis
11/05/25 Ethiopia Premier League	Kedus Giorgis	0-1 HT 0-1	Adama City
09/01/25 Ethiopia Premier League	Adama City	1-2 HT 0-0	Kedus Giorgis
29/03/24 Ethiopia Premier League	Adama City	2-1 HT 1-0	Kedus Giorgis
27/10/23 Ethiopia Premier League	Kedus Giorgis	2-2 HT 0-1	Adama City

Standings · Ethiopia Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Ethiopia Nigd Bank	2	2	0	0	2	0	6
2	Ethiopian Insurance FC	2	1	1	0	3	1	4
3	Halaba City	2	1	1	0	2	1	4
4	Adama City	2	1	1	0	1	0	4
5	Ethio Electric FC	3	1	1	1	1	1	4
5	Shaggar City	3	1	1	1	1	1	4
7	Ethiopian Coffee	2	1	0	1	2	2	3
8	Bahir Dar Kenema FC	2	1	0	1	1	1	3
8	Mechal SC	2	1	0	1	1	1	3
10	Negelle Arsi	2	0	2	0	1	1	2
10	Wolaita Dicha	2	0	2	0	1	1	2
12	Welwalo Adigrat	1	0	1	0	1	1	1
13	Fasil Kenema	1	0	1	0	0	0	1
14	Kedus Giorgis	2	0	1	1	2	3	1
15	Hadiya Hossana	2	0	1	1	1	2	1
15	Hawassa City FC	2	0	1	1	1	2	1
17	Sidama Bunna	1	0	0	1	0	1	0
18	Gamo Chencha	1	0	0	1	0	2	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Kedus Giorgis	Adama City
Welwalo Adigrat	1-1 D	0-0 D
Fasil Kenema	1-0 W	1-3 L
Shire Endaselassie FC	0-0 D	4-0 W
Hawassa City FC	1-0 W	3-2 W
Wolaita Dicha	0-0 D	0-2 L
Mekelle 70 Enderta FC	1-0 W	0-0 D
Record vs common	3 W 3 D 0 L	2 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Kedus Giorgis (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Kedus Giorgis

WDWWWDWDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Ethiopian Coffee Ethiopia Premier League	0-0	1-2	7	7	L
10/10	Negelle Arsi Ethiopia Premier League	0-0	1-1	4	3	D
02/07	Welwalo Adigrat Ethiopia Premier League	1-1	1-1	2	4	D
26/06	Fasil Kenema Ethiopia Premier League	1-0	1-0	4	4	W
21/06	Shire Endaselassie FC Ethiopia Premier League	0-0	0-0	0	2	D
14/06	Mechal SC Ethiopia Premier League	1-0	3-0	4	7	W
28/05	Dire Dawa Ethiopia Premier League	2-1	2-1	3	5	W
20/05	Hawassa City FC Ethiopia Premier League	1-0	1-0	3	7	W
14/05	Wolaita Dicha Ethiopia Premier League	0-0	0-0	4	3	D
09/05	Mekelle 70 Enderta FC Ethiopia Premier League	0-0	1-0	4	5	W

Adama City

WLDLWDLWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/10	Shaggar City Ethiopia Premier League	0-0	0-0	3	5	D
09/10	Ethio Electric FC Ethiopia Premier League	1-0	1-0	8	4	W
02/07	Hawassa City FC Ethiopia Premier League	3-1	3-2	6	1	W
28/06	Wolaita Dicha Ethiopia Premier League	0-0	0-2	–	–	L
21/06	Mekelle 70 Enderta FC Ethiopia Premier League	0-0	0-0	4	6	D
15/06	Ethiopia Nigd Bank Ethiopia Premier League	1-0	2-1	3	6	W
30/05	Sidama Bunna Ethiopia Premier League	0-1	0-1	3	3	L
21/05	Welwalo Adigrat Ethiopia Premier League	0-0	0-0	8	5	D
16/05	Fasil Kenema Ethiopia Premier League	1-1	1-3	3	5	L
09/05	Shire Endaselassie FC Ethiopia Premier League	2-0	4-0	0	8	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Kedus Giorgis vs Adama City?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Kedus Giorgis win (44%). Probabilities: Kedus Giorgis 44%, draw 33%, Adama City 23%.

How many goals are expected in Kedus Giorgis vs Adama City?

The model expects 1.74 goals (Kedus Giorgis 1.06 · Adama City 0.68), with a 53% chance of under 1.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Kedus Giorgis vs Adama City?

The model gives a 55% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.