Football · England Northern Premier League · 20/10, 20:45

Prediction: Guiseley vs Cleethorpes Town

Team pages: Guiseley · Cleethorpes Town

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.66Total

Guiseley1.47

Cleethorpes Town1.19

1X2

43% 26% 31%

Guiseley Draw Cleethorpes Town

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Guiseley 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

DWWWLWWLWW

Cleethorpes Town 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

WWWLWWDDWW

Head-to-head

Guiseley 1–2–1 Cleethorpes Town (4 last)

Cleethorpes Town2-1Guiseley
Guiseley1-1Cleethorpes Town
Guiseley2-1Cleethorpes Town
Cleethorpes Town2-2Guiseley

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Guiseley 1632 · Cleethorpes Town 1583

	Guiseley	Draw	Cleethorpes Town
Our model	42%	28%	30%
Market	44%	24%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 2.66 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Guiseley (rating 1632 vs 1583).
Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Guiseley	Cleethorpes Town
Goals for / against (FT)	2.2 / 0.9	2.2 / 0.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.2	0.6 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	67/17/17%	38/38/25%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.2 / 5.3	2.4 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5 / 0	2.8 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.05

X3.70

22.88

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.85

2 (+0.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.93

Under 2.51.88

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 14:03

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.35 → 2.05▼	Bet365 2.05
X	3.60 → 3.70▲	Bet365 3.70
2	2.45 → 2.88▲	Pinn 3.10 ★

See the full journey (4)

Bet365 margin 10.6% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
14:04 +20’	2.35	3.60	2.45
17:53 +6’	2.20▼	3.60	2.63▲
22:03 +2’	2.15▼	3.60	2.75▲
13:43 +20’	2.05▼	3.70▲	2.88▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
21:11 +53’	2.00	3.60	3.05
18:48 +16’	2.01▲	3.68▲	3.10▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Guiseley 1–2–1 Cleethorpes Town

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/03/26 England Northern Premier League	Cleethorpes Town	2-1 HT 1-0	Guiseley
15/11/25 England Northern Premier League	Guiseley	1-1 HT 1-0	Cleethorpes Town
09/10/18 England FA Cup Qualification	Guiseley	2-1 HT 0-0	Cleethorpes Town
06/10/18 England FA Cup Qualification	Cleethorpes Town	2-2 HT 0-0	Guiseley

Standings · England Northern Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Redcar Athletic	15	10	4	1	33	13	34
2	Cleethorpes Town	13	9	3	1	30	7	30
3	Guiseley	12	8	1	3	25	11	25
4	Gainsborough	13	8	1	4	29	16	25
5	Avro FC	13	8	1	4	34	25	25
6	Workington	15	7	3	5	26	25	24
7	Warrington Town	13	6	5	2	24	19	23
8	Warrington Rylands	14	7	2	5	25	21	23
9	Curzon Ashton	13	7	1	5	24	17	22
10	Alfreton Town	15	6	2	7	21	17	20
11	Lancaster City	15	6	2	7	20	28	20
12	Bury	11	6	1	4	22	11	19
13	Whitby	14	6	1	7	20	33	19
14	Hyde Utd	15	4	3	8	15	29	15
15	Leek Town	13	3	5	5	26	26	14
16	Ashton Utd	13	3	5	5	15	15	14
17	Quorn	13	3	5	5	23	29	14
18	Emley AFC	14	3	5	6	15	26	14
19	Stockton Town	15	3	3	9	18	28	12
20	Bamber Bridge	14	2	4	8	17	34	10
21	Ilkeston	15	3	1	11	10	34	10
22	FC United of Manchester	12	1	4	7	15	23	7

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Guiseley	Cleethorpes Town
Ilkeston	2-0 W	3-0 W
Alfreton Town	0-1 L	2-1 W
Curzon Ashton	2-1 W	1-3 L
Workington	2-2 D	1-1 D
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 1 L	2 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Cleethorpes Town (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Guiseley

DWWWLWWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Avro FC England Northern Premier League	0-0	1-0	2	6	W
06/10	Ilkeston England Northern Premier League	1-0	2-0	7	7	W
29/09	Alfreton Town England Northern Premier League	0-1	0-1	6	6	L
12/09	Quorn England Northern Premier League	–	4-1	–	–	W
31/08	Emley AFC England Northern Premier League	2-0	4-0	4	5	W
28/08	Lancaster City England Northern Premier League	1-0	1-2	3	5	L
25/08	Stockton Town England Northern Premier League	1-0	3-0	10	1	W
22/08	Curzon Ashton England Northern Premier League	–	2-1	–	–	W
18/08	Bury England Northern Premier League	–	3-2	–	–	W
15/08	Workington England Northern Premier League	–	2-2	–	–	D

Cleethorpes Town

WWWLWWDDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Warrington Rylands England Northern Premier League	1-0	3-0	7	6	W
06/10	Hyde Utd England Northern Premier League	1-0	1-0	3	2	W
03/10	Workington England Northern Premier League	0-0	1-1	2	5	D
22/09	Redcar Athletic England Northern Premier League	0-1	1-1	7	2	D
12/09	Ashton Utd England Northern Premier League	0-0	1-0	4	2	W
31/08	Gainsborough England Northern Premier League	0-0	3-0	3	2	W
28/08	Curzon Ashton England Northern Premier League	0-1	1-3	6	2	L
25/08	Whitby England Northern Premier League	3-0	6-0	6	2	W
22/08	Ilkeston England Northern Premier League	–	3-0	–	–	W
18/08	Alfreton Town England Northern Premier League	–	2-1	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Guiseley vs Cleethorpes Town?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Guiseley win (43%). Probabilities: Guiseley 43%, draw 26%, Cleethorpes Town 31%.

How many goals are expected in Guiseley vs Cleethorpes Town?

The model expects 2.66 goals (Guiseley 1.47 · Cleethorpes Town 1.19), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Guiseley vs Cleethorpes Town?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.