Football · England Northern Premier League · 21/10, 20:45

Prediction: Avro FC vs Ashton Utd

Team pages: Avro FC · Ashton Utd

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.32Total

Avro FC1.99

Ashton Utd1.33

1X2

52% 23% 25%

Avro FC Draw Ashton Utd

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Avro FC 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WWDWWWWLLL

Ashton Utd 1-5-4 (W-D-L)

WDDLLLDDDL

Head-to-head

Avro FC 0–1–0 Ashton Utd (1 last)

Ashton Utd0-0Avro FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Avro FC 1526 · Ashton Utd 1468

	Avro FC	Draw	Ashton Utd
Our model	52%	24%	25%
Market	52%	23%	25%

Estimated total (ours) 3.32 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Avro FC (rating 1526 vs 1468).
Cards-heavy: 6.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Avro FC	Ashton Utd
Goals for / against (FT)	2.6 / 2	1 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 1.1	0.3 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	14/71/14%	29/29/43%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 5	2.9 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.6 / 0	4.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.73

X3.90

23.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.85

2 (+0.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 31.95

Under 31.85

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 3.45

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 22:50

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.70 → 1.73▲	Pinn 1.80 ★
X	3.90 → 3.90	Pinn 4.06
2	3.75 → 3.60▼	Bet365 3.60

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.3% Pinnacle margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
14:08 +20’	1.70	3.90	3.75
22:41 +9’	1.73▲	3.90	3.60▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
21:23 +7’	1.86	3.83	3.24
21:37 +74’	1.74▼	4.18▲	3.42▲
10:56 +6’	1.75▲	4.15▼	3.42
12:00 +2’	1.77▲	3.96▼	3.40▼
12:56 +8’	1.74▼	4.14▲	3.40
14:51 +13’	1.80▲	4.06▼	3.22▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Avro FC 0–1–0 Ashton Utd

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/04/24 England Northern League Challenge Cup	Ashton Utd	0-0 HT 0-0	Avro FC

Standings · England Northern Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Redcar Athletic	15	10	4	1	33	13	34
2	Cleethorpes Town	14	9	3	2	31	9	30
3	Guiseley	13	9	1	3	27	12	28
4	Gainsborough	13	8	1	4	29	16	25
5	Avro FC	13	8	1	4	34	25	25
6	Workington	15	7	3	5	26	25	24
7	Warrington Town	13	6	5	2	24	19	23
8	Warrington Rylands	14	7	2	5	25	21	23
9	Curzon Ashton	13	7	1	5	24	17	22
10	Alfreton Town	15	6	2	7	21	17	20
11	Lancaster City	15	6	2	7	20	28	20
12	Bury	11	6	1	4	22	11	19
13	Whitby	14	6	1	7	20	33	19
14	Hyde Utd	15	4	3	8	15	29	15
15	Leek Town	13	3	5	5	26	26	14
16	Ashton Utd	13	3	5	5	15	15	14
17	Quorn	13	3	5	5	23	29	14
18	Emley AFC	14	3	5	6	15	26	14
19	Stockton Town	15	3	3	9	18	28	12
20	Bamber Bridge	14	2	4	8	17	34	10
21	Ilkeston	15	3	1	11	10	34	10
22	FC United of Manchester	12	1	4	7	15	23	7

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Avro FC	Ashton Utd
Ilkeston	0-2 L	1-1 D
Redcar Athletic	1-3 L	1-2 L
Gainsborough	2-0 W	1-2 L
Leek Town	4-4 D	2-2 D
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 2 L	0 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Ashton Utd (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Avro FC

WWDWWWWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Ilkeston England Northern Premier League	–	0-2	–	–	L
13/10	Redcar Athletic England Northern Premier League	0-2	1-3	2	3	L
10/10	Guiseley England Northern Premier League	0-0	0-1	4	6	L
07/10	Lancaster City England Northern Premier League	2-2	5-3	4	1	W
12/09	Gainsborough England Northern Premier League	0-0	2-0	5	4	W
31/08	FC United of Manchester England Northern Premier League	1-1	4-3	8	2	W
29/08	Stockton Town England Northern Premier League	3-1	5-3	6	2	W
26/08	Leek Town England Northern Premier League	2-2	4-4	6	0	D
22/08	Hyde Utd England Northern Premier League	–	1-0	–	–	W
19/08	Workington England Northern Premier League	–	4-1	–	–	W

Ashton Utd

WDDLLLDDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Redcar Athletic England Northern Premier League	0-2	1-2	7	3	L
13/10	Alfreton Town England Northern Premier League	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
10/10	Leek Town England Northern Premier League	–	2-2	–	–	D
06/10	Quorn England Northern Premier League	1-0	2-2	2	6	D
12/09	Cleethorpes Town England Northern Premier League	0-0	0-1	3	2	L
31/08	Curzon Ashton England Northern Premier League	0-2	0-2	5	5	L
28/08	Gainsborough England Northern Premier League	0-2	1-2	10	6	L
25/08	Ilkeston England Northern Premier League	1-0	1-1	5	4	D
22/08	Emley AFC England Northern Premier League	–	1-1	–	–	D
18/08	Whitby England Northern Premier League	–	2-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Avro FC vs Ashton Utd?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Avro FC win (52%). Probabilities: Avro FC 52%, draw 23%, Ashton Utd 25%.

How many goals are expected in Avro FC vs Ashton Utd?

The model expects 3.32 goals (Avro FC 1.99 · Ashton Utd 1.33), with a 51% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Avro FC vs Ashton Utd?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.