Football · England Northern Premier League · 24/10, 16:00

Prediction: Emley AFC vs Lancaster City

Team pages: Emley AFC · Lancaster City

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.97Total

Emley AFC1.44

Lancaster City1.53

1X2

35% 25% 39%

Emley AFC Draw Lancaster City

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Emley AFC 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

DDDLLLLLDW

Lancaster City 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WWLLWWLDWL

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Emley AFC 1422 · Lancaster City 1495

	Emley AFC	Draw	Lancaster City
Our model	35%	27%	39%
Market	36%	24%	40%

Estimated total (ours) 2.97 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lancaster City (rating 1422 vs 1495).
Cards-heavy: 4.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Emley AFC	Lancaster City
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 2.2	1.4 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 1.1	0.8 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	29/29/43%	25/50/25%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 4.6	2.6 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.4 / 0	2.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.50

X3.70

22.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)2.00

2 (0)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 31.95

Under 31.85

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:21

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.50 → 2.50	Bet365 2.50
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
13:11 +10’	2.50	3.70	2.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · England Northern Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Redcar Athletic	15	10	4	1	33	13	34
2	Cleethorpes Town	14	9	3	2	31	9	30
3	Guiseley	13	9	1	3	27	12	28
4	Gainsborough	13	8	1	4	29	16	25
5	Avro FC	13	8	1	4	34	25	25
6	Workington	15	7	3	5	26	25	24
7	Warrington Town	13	6	5	2	24	19	23
8	Warrington Rylands	14	7	2	5	25	21	23
9	Curzon Ashton	13	7	1	5	24	17	22
10	Alfreton Town	15	6	2	7	21	17	20
11	Lancaster City	15	6	2	7	20	28	20
12	Bury	11	6	1	4	22	11	19
13	Whitby	14	6	1	7	20	33	19
14	Hyde Utd	15	4	3	8	15	29	15
15	Leek Town	13	3	5	5	26	26	14
16	Ashton Utd	13	3	5	5	15	15	14
17	Quorn	13	3	5	5	23	29	14
18	Emley AFC	14	3	5	6	15	26	14
19	Stockton Town	15	3	3	9	18	28	12
20	Bamber Bridge	14	2	4	8	17	34	10
21	Ilkeston	15	3	1	11	10	34	10
22	FC United of Manchester	12	1	4	7	15	23	7

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Emley AFC	Lancaster City
Stockton Town	3-1 W	1-0 W
Workington	1-3 L	0-3 L
Bury	0-4 L	1-0 W
Guiseley	0-4 L	2-1 W
Warrington Town	2-2 D	2-2 D
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 3 L	3 W 1 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Emley AFC

DDDLLLLLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Stockton Town England Northern Premier League	–	3-1	–	–	W
13/10	FC United of Manchester England Northern Premier League	1-0	1-1	3	0	D
10/10	Gainsborough England Northern Premier League	–	1-2	–	–	L
03/10	Warrington Rylands England Northern Premier League	0-2	1-4	4	2	L
29/09	Workington England Northern Premier League	1-0	1-3	6	4	L
12/09	Bury England Northern Premier League	0-3	0-4	3	1	L
31/08	Guiseley England Northern Premier League	0-2	0-4	4	5	L
29/08	Warrington Town England Northern Premier League	1-1	2-2	10	3	D
25/08	Redcar Athletic England Northern Premier League	0-0	0-0	2	2	D
22/08	Ashton Utd England Northern Premier League	–	1-1	–	–	D

Lancaster City

WWLLWWLDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Leek Town England Northern Premier League	1-2	1-2	7	2	L
13/10	Stockton Town England Northern Premier League	0-0	1-0	7	2	W
10/10	Warrington Town England Northern Premier League	1-0	2-2	3	1	D
07/10	Avro FC England Northern Premier League	2-2	3-5	3	1	L
03/10	Ilkeston England Northern Premier League	–	2-1	–	–	W
29/09	Whitby England Northern Premier League	1-1	2-1	8	4	W
12/09	Curzon Ashton England Northern Premier League	0-0	0-2	8	0	L
31/08	Workington England Northern Premier League	–	0-3	–	–	L
28/08	Guiseley England Northern Premier League	0-1	2-1	4	5	W
25/08	Bury England Northern Premier League	1-0	1-0	2	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Emley AFC vs Lancaster City?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Lancaster City win (39%). Probabilities: Emley AFC 35%, draw 25%, Lancaster City 39%.

How many goals are expected in Emley AFC vs Lancaster City?

The model expects 2.97 goals (Emley AFC 1.44 · Lancaster City 1.53), with a 53% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Emley AFC vs Lancaster City?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.