Football · England Northern Premier League · 24/10, 16:00

Prediction: Warrington Town vs Gainsborough

Team pages: Warrington Town · Gainsborough

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.51Total

Warrington Town1.63

Gainsborough1.88

1X2

33% 24% 43%

Warrington Town Draw Gainsborough

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Warrington Town 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

WWLDWLDDWD

Gainsborough 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WLDWLLWWWW

Head-to-head

Warrington Town 1–2–3 Gainsborough (6 last)

Warrington Town0-3Gainsborough
Gainsborough2-0Warrington Town
Gainsborough1-1Warrington Town
Warrington Town0-2Gainsborough
Gainsborough1-1Warrington Town
Warrington Town1-0Gainsborough

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Warrington Town 1521 · Gainsborough 1569

	Warrington Town	Draw	Gainsborough
Our model	33%	24%	43%
Market	33%	24%	43%

Estimated total (ours) 3.51 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Gainsborough (rating 1521 vs 1569).
H2H favours Gainsborough: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Warrington Town	Gainsborough
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.7	2.3 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.8	1.1 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	25/38/38%	43/57/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 3.8	2 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.9 / 0.3	2.1 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.75

X3.70

22.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.90

2 (-0.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 31.90

Under 31.90

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 3.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:20

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.75 → 2.75	Bet365 2.75
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11%

Time*	1	X	2
14:58 +22’	2.75	3.70	2.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Warrington Town 1–2–3 Gainsborough

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/12/25 England Northern Premier League	Warrington Town	0-3 HT 0-1	Gainsborough
06/09/25 England Northern Premier League	Gainsborough	2-0	Warrington Town
01/04/23 England Northern Premier League	Gainsborough	1-1	Warrington Town
11/10/22 England Northern Premier League	Warrington Town	0-2 HT 0-2	Gainsborough
11/12/21 England Northern Premier League	Gainsborough	1-1	Warrington Town
11/09/21 England Northern Premier League	Warrington Town	1-0 HT 0-1	Gainsborough

Standings · England Northern Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Redcar Athletic	15	10	4	1	33	13	34
2	Cleethorpes Town	14	9	3	2	31	9	30
3	Guiseley	13	9	1	3	27	12	28
4	Gainsborough	13	8	1	4	29	16	25
5	Avro FC	13	8	1	4	34	25	25
6	Workington	15	7	3	5	26	25	24
7	Warrington Town	13	6	5	2	24	19	23
8	Warrington Rylands	14	7	2	5	25	21	23
9	Curzon Ashton	13	7	1	5	24	17	22
10	Alfreton Town	15	6	2	7	21	17	20
11	Lancaster City	15	6	2	7	20	28	20
12	Bury	11	6	1	4	22	11	19
13	Whitby	14	6	1	7	20	33	19
14	Hyde Utd	15	4	3	8	15	29	15
15	Leek Town	13	3	5	5	26	26	14
16	Ashton Utd	13	3	5	5	15	15	14
17	Quorn	13	3	5	5	23	29	14
18	Emley AFC	14	3	5	6	15	26	14
19	Stockton Town	15	3	3	9	18	28	12
20	Bamber Bridge	14	2	4	8	17	34	10
21	Ilkeston	15	3	1	11	10	34	10
22	FC United of Manchester	12	1	4	7	15	23	7

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Warrington Town	Gainsborough
Emley AFC	2-2 D	2-1 W
Whitby	5-0 W	6-2 W
Ilkeston	2-1 W	3-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 0 L	3 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Gainsborough (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Warrington Town

WWLDWLDDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Alfreton Town England Northern Premier League	0-0	1-1	1	3	D
13/10	Bamber Bridge England Northern Premier League	1-0	1-0	1	4	W
10/10	Lancaster City England Northern Premier League	0-1	2-2	5	1	D
06/10	Workington England Northern Premier League	2-1	2-2	3	3	D
12/09	FC United of Manchester England Northern Premier League	0-1	1-4	2	5	L
01/09	Leek Town England Northern Premier League	1-1	2-1	8	3	W
29/08	Emley AFC England Northern Premier League	1-1	2-2	6	3	D
25/08	Curzon Ashton England Northern Premier League	0-1	0-4	4	3	L
22/08	Whitby England Northern Premier League	–	5-0	–	–	W
18/08	Ilkeston England Northern Premier League	–	2-1	–	–	W

Gainsborough

WLDWLLWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Hyde Utd England Northern Premier League	1-0	4-0	5	2	W
13/10	Ilkeston England Northern Premier League	1-1	3-1	4	1	W
10/10	Emley AFC England Northern Premier League	–	2-1	–	–	W
06/10	Whitby England Northern Premier League	3-0	6-2	10	0	W
12/09	Avro FC England Northern Premier League	0-0	0-2	3	4	L
31/08	Cleethorpes Town England Northern Premier League	0-0	0-3	3	2	L
28/08	Ashton Utd England Northern Premier League	2-0	2-1	0	6	W
25/08	Quorn England Northern Premier League	1-1	2-2	7	0	D
22/08	Bury England Northern Premier League	–	0-1	–	–	L
18/08	Stockton Town England Northern Premier League	–	4-1	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Warrington Town vs Gainsborough?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Gainsborough win (43%). Probabilities: Warrington Town 33%, draw 24%, Gainsborough 43%.

How many goals are expected in Warrington Town vs Gainsborough?

The model expects 3.51 goals (Warrington Town 1.63 · Gainsborough 1.88), with a 54% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Warrington Town vs Gainsborough?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.