Football · Panama LPF · 18/10, 01:15

Prediction: CA Independiente de la Chorrera vs Veraguas CD

Team pages: CA Independiente de la Chorrera · Veraguas CD

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.66Total

CA Independiente de la Chorrera1.37

Veraguas CD1.29

1X2

38% 28% 34%

CA Independiente de la Chorrera Draw Veraguas CD

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

CA Independiente de la Chorrera 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

DDLWLLDWLD

Veraguas CD 4-5-1 (W-D-L)

WWDDDLWDDW

Head-to-head

CA Independiente de la Chorrera 2–1–3 Veraguas CD (6 last)

Veraguas CD1-1CA Independiente de la Chorrera
Veraguas CD1-0CA Independiente de la Chorrera
CA Independiente de la Chorrera1-0Veraguas CD
CA Independiente de la Chorrera3-0Veraguas CD
Veraguas CD1-0CA Independiente de la Chorrera
CA Independiente de la Chorrera2-3Veraguas CD

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · CA Independiente de la Chorrera 1481 · Veraguas CD 1523

	CA Independiente de la Chorrera	Draw	Veraguas CD
Our model	38%	29%	34%
Market	38%	28%	34%

Estimated total (ours) 2.66 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Veraguas CD (rating 1481 vs 1523).
H2H favours Veraguas CD: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 11.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	CA Independiente de la Chorrera	Veraguas CD
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.6	1.6 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.6	0.6 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	10/30/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4.6	2.8 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.3 / 0.1	6.6 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.35

X3.20

22.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.80

2 (0)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.95

Under 2.51.85

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 21:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.35 → 2.35	Bet365 2.35
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	2.60 → 2.60	Bet365 2.60

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.3%

Time*	1	X	2
20:54 +22’	2.35	3.20	2.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · CA Independiente de la Chorrera 2–1–3 Veraguas CD

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Date	Home	Score	Away
27/07/26 Panama LPF	Veraguas CD	1-1 HT 1-0	CA Independiente de la Chorrera
02/05/26 Panama LPF	Veraguas CD	1-0 HT 1-0	CA Independiente de la Chorrera
13/02/26 Panama LPF	CA Independiente de la Chorrera	1-0 HT 0-0	Veraguas CD
27/10/25 Panama LPF	CA Independiente de la Chorrera	3-0 HT 0-0	Veraguas CD
12/08/25 Panama LPF	Veraguas CD	1-0 HT 1-0	CA Independiente de la Chorrera
13/04/25 Panama LPF	CA Independiente de la Chorrera	2-3 HT 2-0	Veraguas CD

Standings · Panama LPF · Apertura, West

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	San Francisco FC	12	7	2	3	23	14	23
2	Veraguas CD	11	4	6	1	17	15	18
3	CA Independiente de la Chorrera	11	2	5	4	15	17	11
4	CD Universitario	12	2	5	5	10	13	11
5	Herrera FC	11	2	2	7	9	24	8
6	Union Cocle	11	1	2	8	8	21	5

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	CA Independiente de la Chorrera	Veraguas CD
CD Arabe Unido	1-1 D	1-3 L
Alianza FC Panama	0-2 L	2-1 W
Sporting San Miguelito	4-3 W	1-1 D
Plaza Amador	2-2 D	1-1 D
UMECIT	0-2 L	1-1 D
Tauro FC	1-2 L	2-1 W
Union Cocle	3-0 W	1-0 W
San Francisco FC	1-2 L	3-3 D
CD Universitario	2-2 D	2-1 W
Herrera FC	0-0 D	2-2 D
Record vs common	2 W 4 D 4 L	4 W 5 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Veraguas CD (5 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

CA Independiente de la Chorrera

DDLWLLDWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/10	CD Arabe Unido Panama LPF	1-1	1-1	4	9	D
29/09	Alianza FC Panama Panama LPF	0-0	0-2	10	6	L
21/09	Sporting San Miguelito Panama LPF	2-0	4-3	4	4	W
13/09	Plaza Amador Panama LPF	1-1	2-2	5	2	D
08/09	UMECIT Panama LPF	0-0	0-2	4	5	L
29/08	Tauro FC Panama LPF	0-1	1-2	6	10	L
23/08	Union Cocle Panama LPF	1-0	3-0	4	5	W
15/08	San Francisco FC Panama LPF	1-1	1-2	2	4	L
11/08	CD Universitario Panama LPF	0-2	2-2	2	6	D
04/08	Herrera FC Panama LPF	0-0	0-0	5	3	D

Veraguas CD

WWDDDLWDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/10	Tauro FC Panama LPF	2-0	2-1	7	13	W
28/09	Sporting San Miguelito Panama LPF	0-1	1-1	–	–	D
20/09	Plaza Amador Panama LPF	0-1	1-1	1	9	D
14/09	Alianza FC Panama Panama LPF	1-1	2-1	3	5	W
05/09	CD Arabe Unido Panama LPF	0-2	1-3	2	7	L
01/09	UMECIT Panama LPF	0-1	1-1	5	6	D
23/08	San Francisco FC Panama LPF	1-2	3-3	5	3	D
16/08	Herrera FC Panama LPF	2-2	2-2	7	6	D
09/08	Union Cocle Panama LPF	0-0	1-0	3	5	W
03/08	CD Universitario Panama LPF	0-1	2-1	5	8	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in CA Independiente de la Chorrera vs Veraguas CD?

According to our model, the most likely result is a CA Independiente de la Chorrera win (38%). Probabilities: CA Independiente de la Chorrera 38%, draw 28%, Veraguas CD 34%.

How many goals are expected in CA Independiente de la Chorrera vs Veraguas CD?

The model expects 2.66 goals (CA Independiente de la Chorrera 1.37 · Veraguas CD 1.29), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in CA Independiente de la Chorrera vs Veraguas CD?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.