Football · Paraguay Division Profesional · 19/10, 00:20

Prediction: Sportivo Trinidense vs Libertad Asuncion

Team pages: Sportivo Trinidense · Libertad Asuncion

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.47Total

Sportivo Trinidense1.1

Libertad Asuncion1.37

1X2

29% 28% 42%

Sportivo Trinidense Draw Libertad Asuncion

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Sportivo Trinidense 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DDLWLWLWWD

Libertad Asuncion 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WWDLWWDLWD

Head-to-head

Sportivo Trinidense 1–3–2 Libertad Asuncion (6 last)

Libertad Asuncion2-1Sportivo Trinidense
Libertad Asuncion1-1Sportivo Trinidense
Sportivo Trinidense1-0Libertad Asuncion
Libertad Asuncion0-0Sportivo Trinidense
Sportivo Trinidense0-2Libertad Asuncion
Libertad Asuncion1-1Sportivo Trinidense

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sportivo Trinidense 1505 · Libertad Asuncion 1537

	Sportivo Trinidense	Draw	Libertad Asuncion
Our model	29%	29%	42%
Market	30%	28%	43%

Estimated total (ours) 2.47 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Libertad Asuncion: 2-3-1.
High corners: 12.4 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sportivo Trinidense	Libertad Asuncion
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1	1.5 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.5	0.7 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 6.1	3 / 6.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0.6	4.2 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

13.00

X3.25

22.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.90

2 (-0.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.00

Under 2.51.80

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 11:26

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.60 → 3.00▲	Pinn 3.24 ★
X	3.20 → 3.25▲	Pinn 3.35
2	2.40 → 2.10▼	Pinn 2.26

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.7% Pinnacle margin 5%

Time*	1	X	2
23:05 +21’	2.60	3.20	2.40
11:02 +24’	3.00▲	3.25▲	2.10▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
23:11 +14’	2.88	3.21	2.39
00:14 +7’	2.91▲	3.25▲	2.42▲
00:21 +59’	2.94▲	3.28▲	2.44▲
10:54 +32’	3.22▲	3.33▲	2.25▼
12:21 +10’	3.24▲	3.35▲	2.26▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Sportivo Trinidense 1–3–2 Libertad Asuncion

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/08/26 Paraguay Division Profesional	Libertad Asuncion	2-1 HT 1-1	Sportivo Trinidense
13/04/26 Paraguay Division Profesional	Libertad Asuncion	1-1 HT 0-0	Sportivo Trinidense
15/02/26 Paraguay Division Profesional	Sportivo Trinidense	1-0 HT 0-0	Libertad Asuncion
06/10/25 Paraguay Division Profesional	Libertad Asuncion	0-0 HT 0-0	Sportivo Trinidense
26/07/25 Paraguay Division Profesional	Sportivo Trinidense	0-2 HT 0-1	Libertad Asuncion
18/05/25 Paraguay Division Profesional	Libertad Asuncion	1-1 HT 0-0	Sportivo Trinidense

Standings · Paraguay Division Profesional

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Deportivo Recoleta	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Cerro Porteno	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Guarani Asuncion	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Olimpia Asuncion	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	2 de Mayo	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Libertad Asuncion	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Nacional Asuncion	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Rubio Nu	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sportivo San Lorenzo	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sportivo Ameliano	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sportivo Luqueno	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sportivo Trinidense	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sportivo Trinidense	Libertad Asuncion
Sportivo San Lorenzo	1-1 D	1-0 W
Sportivo Luqueno	3-2 W	2-1 W
Cerro Porteno	2-1 W	1-1 D
Guarani Asuncion	0-1 L	2-2 D
Deportivo Recoleta	3-1 W	2-1 W
Olimpia Asuncion	1-2 L	0-1 L
Sportivo Ameliano	3-0 W	1-1 D
2 de Mayo	0-1 L	2-0 W
Rubio Nu	0-0 D	4-2 W
Nacional Asuncion	1-1 D	0-3 L
Record vs common	4 W 3 D 3 L	5 W 3 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sportivo Trinidense

DDLWLWLWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Sportivo San Lorenzo Paraguay Division Profesional	0-1	1-1	10	4	D
05/10	Sportivo Luqueno Paraguay Division Profesional	2-1	3-2	5	4	W
27/09	Cerro Porteno Paraguay Division Profesional	1-1	2-1	3	3	W
18/09	Guarani Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	0-1	7	3	L
12/09	Deportivo Recoleta Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	3-1	5	7	W
06/09	Olimpia Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	0-1	1-2	6	6	L
02/09	Sportivo Ameliano Paraguay Division Profesional	1-0	3-0	5	4	W
29/08	2 de Mayo Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	0-1	8	4	L
21/08	Rubio Nu Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	0-0	5	7	D
15/08	Nacional Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	1-1	1-1	7	6	D

Libertad Asuncion

WWDLWWDLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/10	Guarani Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	1-1	2-2	4	5	D
05/10	Deportivo Recoleta Paraguay Division Profesional	1-1	2-1	5	4	W
29/09	Olimpia Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	0-1	0-1	3	9	L
19/09	Sportivo Ameliano Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	1-1	7	7	D
11/09	2 de Mayo Paraguay Division Profesional	1-0	2-0	3	6	W
06/09	Rubio Nu Paraguay Division Profesional	2-1	4-2	9	3	W
02/09	Nacional Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	0-1	0-3	7	3	L
30/08	Cerro Porteno Paraguay Division Profesional	1-1	1-1	9	2	D
24/08	Sportivo San Lorenzo Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	1-0	9	2	W
16/08	Sportivo Luqueno Paraguay Division Profesional	1-1	2-1	7	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sportivo Trinidense vs Libertad Asuncion?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Libertad Asuncion win (42%). Probabilities: Sportivo Trinidense 29%, draw 28%, Libertad Asuncion 42%.

How many goals are expected in Sportivo Trinidense vs Libertad Asuncion?

The model expects 2.47 goals (Sportivo Trinidense 1.1 · Libertad Asuncion 1.37), with a 54% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Sportivo Trinidense vs Libertad Asuncion?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.