Football · Paraguay Division Profesional · 24/10, 00:30
Prediction: Libertad Asuncion vs Sportivo Luqueno
Team pages: Libertad Asuncion · Sportivo Luqueno
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.95Total
Libertad Asuncion2.04
Sportivo Luqueno0.92
1X2
Libertad Asuncion
Draw
Sportivo Luqueno
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 57%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
2-0 11%
Recent form · 10 last
Libertad Asuncion
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Sportivo Luqueno
3-1-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Libertad Asuncion
4–2
Sportivo Luqueno
(6 last)
- Sportivo Luqueno1-2Libertad Asuncion
- Sportivo Luqueno2-3Libertad Asuncion
- Libertad Asuncion1-0Sportivo Luqueno
- Sportivo Luqueno1-4Libertad Asuncion
- Libertad Asuncion0-1Sportivo Luqueno
- Sportivo Luqueno1-0Libertad Asuncion
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Libertad Asuncion 1537 · Sportivo Luqueno 1433
| Libertad Asuncion | Draw | Sportivo Luqueno | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 62% | 23% | 15% |
| Market | 62% | 23% | 15% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.95 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Libertad Asuncion (rating 1537 vs 1433).
- H2H favours Libertad Asuncion: 4-0-2.
- High corners: 11.2 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Libertad Asuncion | Sportivo Luqueno | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 1.2 | 1.1 / 1.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.7 | 0.4 / 1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/50/30% | 20/20/60% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.8 / 5.7 | 3.1 / 5.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.5 / 0.2 | 3.9 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Libertad Asuncion 4–0–2 Sportivo Luqueno
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08/26 Paraguay Division Profesional | Sportivo Luqueno | 1-2 HT 1-1 | Libertad Asuncion |
| 11/05/26 Paraguay Division Profesional | Sportivo Luqueno | 2-3 HT 1-1 | Libertad Asuncion |
| 08/03/26 Paraguay Division Profesional | Libertad Asuncion | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Sportivo Luqueno |
| 14/09/25 Paraguay Division Profesional | Sportivo Luqueno | 1-4 HT 1-1 | Libertad Asuncion |
| 05/07/25 Paraguay Division Profesional | Libertad Asuncion | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Sportivo Luqueno |
| 12/05/25 Paraguay Division Profesional | Sportivo Luqueno | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Libertad Asuncion |
Standings · Paraguay Division Profesional
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deportivo Recoleta | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Cerro Porteno | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Guarani Asuncion | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Olimpia Asuncion | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | 2 de Mayo | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Libertad Asuncion | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Nacional Asuncion | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Rubio Nu | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Sportivo San Lorenzo | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Sportivo Ameliano | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Sportivo Luqueno | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Sportivo Trinidense | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Common opponents 10 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Libertad Asuncion | Sportivo Luqueno |
|---|---|---|
| Sportivo Trinidense | 0-1 L | 2-3 L |
| Guarani Asuncion | 2-2 D | 0-1 L |
| Deportivo Recoleta | 2-1 W | 1-0 W |
| Olimpia Asuncion | 0-1 L | 0-3 L |
| Sportivo Ameliano | 1-1 D | 1-2 L |
| 2 de Mayo | 2-0 W | 2-2 D |
| Rubio Nu | 4-2 W | 2-1 W |
| Nacional Asuncion | 0-3 L | 0-2 L |
| Cerro Porteno | 1-1 D | 0-3 L |
| Sportivo San Lorenzo | 1-0 W | 3-2 W |
| Record vs common | 4 W 3 D 3 L | 3 W 1 D 6 L |
Better against common opponents: Libertad Asuncion (6 of 10 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Libertad Asuncion
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/10 | Sportivo Trinidense Paraguay Division Profesional |
0-1 | 0-1 | 1 | 6 | L |
| 12/10 | Guarani Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional |
1-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 05/10 | Deportivo Recoleta Paraguay Division Profesional |
1-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 29/09 | Olimpia Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 9 | L |
| 19/09 | Sportivo Ameliano Paraguay Division Profesional |
0-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 7 | D |
| 11/09 | 2 de Mayo Paraguay Division Profesional |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 06/09 | Rubio Nu Paraguay Division Profesional |
2-1 | 4-2 | 9 | 3 | W |
| 02/09 | Nacional Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional |
0-1 | 0-3 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 30/08 | Cerro Porteno Paraguay Division Profesional |
1-1 | 1-1 | 9 | 2 | D |
| 24/08 | Sportivo San Lorenzo Paraguay Division Profesional |
0-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 2 | W |
Sportivo Luqueno
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/10 | Sportivo San Lorenzo Paraguay Division Profesional |
1-2 | 3-2 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 11/10 | Cerro Porteno Paraguay Division Profesional |
0-2 | 0-3 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 05/10 | Sportivo Trinidense Paraguay Division Profesional |
1-2 | 2-3 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 25/09 | Guarani Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 20/09 | Deportivo Recoleta Paraguay Division Profesional |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 13/09 | Olimpia Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional |
0-2 | 0-3 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 06/09 | Sportivo Ameliano Paraguay Division Profesional |
0-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 01/09 | 2 de Mayo Paraguay Division Profesional |
1-0 | 2-2 | 8 | 5 | D |
| 28/08 | Rubio Nu Paraguay Division Profesional |
1-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 24/08 | Nacional Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional |
0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 3 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Libertad Asuncion vs Sportivo Luqueno?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Libertad Asuncion win (62%). Probabilities: Libertad Asuncion 62%, draw 23%, Sportivo Luqueno 15%.
How many goals are expected in Libertad Asuncion vs Sportivo Luqueno?
The model expects 2.95 goals (Libertad Asuncion 2.04 · Sportivo Luqueno 0.92), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Libertad Asuncion vs Sportivo Luqueno?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.