Football · Paraguay Division Profesional · 24/10, 22:00
Prediction: Nacional Asuncion vs Sportivo Trinidense
Team pages: Nacional Asuncion · Sportivo Trinidense
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.11Total
Nacional Asuncion1.18
Sportivo Trinidense0.93
1X2
Nacional Asuncion
Draw
Sportivo Trinidense
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 65%
Not both to score 51%
Most likely score
1-1 15%
Recent form · 10 last
Nacional Asuncion
7-2-1 (W-D-L)
Sportivo Trinidense
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Nacional Asuncion
2–4–0
Sportivo Trinidense
(6 last)
- Sportivo Trinidense1-1Nacional Asuncion
- Nacional Asuncion2-1Sportivo Trinidense
- Sportivo Trinidense1-1Nacional Asuncion
- Nacional Asuncion0-0Sportivo Trinidense
- Sportivo Trinidense0-0Nacional Asuncion
- Sportivo Trinidense0-2Nacional Asuncion
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Nacional Asuncion 1587 · Sportivo Trinidense 1511
| Nacional Asuncion | Draw | Sportivo Trinidense | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 40% | 32% | 27% |
| Market | 42% | 29% | 29% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.11 goals · Bet365 line 2.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 66%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Nacional Asuncion (rating 1587 vs 1511).
- H2H favours Nacional Asuncion: 2-4-0.
- High corners: 10.6 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Nacional Asuncion | Sportivo Trinidense | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.7 / 0.3 | 1.4 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0 | 0.5 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 60/40/0% | 30/50/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.7 / 5.1 | 2 / 5.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.2 / 0.3 | 4.3 / 0.5 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Nacional Asuncion 2–4–0 Sportivo Trinidense
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08/26 Paraguay Division Profesional | Sportivo Trinidense | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Nacional Asuncion |
| 10/05/26 Paraguay Division Profesional | Nacional Asuncion | 2-1 HT 0-1 | Sportivo Trinidense |
| 09/03/26 Paraguay Division Profesional | Sportivo Trinidense | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Nacional Asuncion |
| 01/11/25 Paraguay Division Profesional | Nacional Asuncion | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Sportivo Trinidense |
| 03/10/25 Paraguay Cup | Sportivo Trinidense | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Nacional Asuncion |
| 17/08/25 Paraguay Division Profesional | Sportivo Trinidense | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Nacional Asuncion |
Standings · Paraguay Division Profesional
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deportivo Recoleta | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Cerro Porteno | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Guarani Asuncion | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Olimpia Asuncion | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | 2 de Mayo | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Libertad Asuncion | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Nacional Asuncion | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Rubio Nu | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Sportivo San Lorenzo | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Sportivo Ameliano | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Sportivo Luqueno | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Sportivo Trinidense | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Common opponents 10 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Nacional Asuncion | Sportivo Trinidense |
|---|---|---|
| Guarani Asuncion | 2-0 W | 0-1 L |
| Deportivo Recoleta | 1-0 W | 3-1 W |
| Olimpia Asuncion | 1-1 D | 1-2 L |
| Sportivo Ameliano | 1-1 D | 3-0 W |
| 2 de Mayo | 3-0 W | 0-1 L |
| Rubio Nu | 1-0 W | 0-0 D |
| Cerro Porteno | 0-1 L | 2-1 W |
| Libertad Asuncion | 3-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Sportivo San Lorenzo | 3-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Sportivo Luqueno | 2-0 W | 3-2 W |
| Record vs common | 7 W 2 D 1 L | 5 W 2 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Nacional Asuncion (7 of 10 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Nacional Asuncion
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/10 | Guarani Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional |
0-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 13/10 | Deportivo Recoleta Paraguay Division Profesional |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 07/10 | Olimpia Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 26/09 | Sportivo Ameliano Paraguay Division Profesional |
1-0 | 1-1 | 13 | 2 | D |
| 18/09 | 2 de Mayo Paraguay Division Profesional |
2-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 13/09 | Rubio Nu Paraguay Division Profesional |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 07/09 | Cerro Porteno Paraguay Division Profesional |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 0 | L |
| 02/09 | Libertad Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional |
1-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 28/08 | Sportivo San Lorenzo Paraguay Division Profesional |
1-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 24/08 | Sportivo Luqueno Paraguay Division Profesional |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
Sportivo Trinidense
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/10 | Libertad Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 6 | W |
| 10/10 | Sportivo San Lorenzo Paraguay Division Profesional |
0-1 | 1-1 | 10 | 4 | D |
| 05/10 | Sportivo Luqueno Paraguay Division Profesional |
2-1 | 3-2 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 27/09 | Cerro Porteno Paraguay Division Profesional |
1-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 18/09 | Guarani Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 12/09 | Deportivo Recoleta Paraguay Division Profesional |
0-0 | 3-1 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 06/09 | Olimpia Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional |
0-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 02/09 | Sportivo Ameliano Paraguay Division Profesional |
1-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 29/08 | 2 de Mayo Paraguay Division Profesional |
0-0 | 0-1 | 8 | 4 | L |
| 21/08 | Rubio Nu Paraguay Division Profesional |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 7 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Nacional Asuncion vs Sportivo Trinidense?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Nacional Asuncion win (41%). Probabilities: Nacional Asuncion 41%, draw 30%, Sportivo Trinidense 28%.
How many goals are expected in Nacional Asuncion vs Sportivo Trinidense?
The model expects 2.11 goals (Nacional Asuncion 1.18 · Sportivo Trinidense 0.93), with a 54% chance of under 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Nacional Asuncion vs Sportivo Trinidense?
The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.