Football · Paraguay Division Profesional · 23/10, 22:00

Prediction: Rubio Nu vs Guarani Asuncion

Team pages: Rubio Nu · Guarani Asuncion

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.35Total

Rubio Nu1.08

Guarani Asuncion1.27

1X2

31% 30% 40%

Rubio Nu Draw Guarani Asuncion

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Rubio Nu 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

DLWLLLDWDL

Guarani Asuncion 3-6-1 (W-D-L)

DDDWDWWDDL

Head-to-head

Rubio Nu 2–4 Guarani Asuncion (6 last)

Guarani Asuncion2-3Rubio Nu
Rubio Nu0-2Guarani Asuncion
Guarani Asuncion4-0Rubio Nu
Guarani Asuncion0-1Rubio Nu
Rubio Nu0-1Guarani Asuncion
Guarani Asuncion2-1Rubio Nu

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Rubio Nu 1452 · Guarani Asuncion 1522

	Rubio Nu	Draw	Guarani Asuncion
Our model	30%	30%	39%
Market	31%	29%	40%

Estimated total (ours) 2.35 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Guarani Asuncion (rating 1452 vs 1522).
H2H favours Guarani Asuncion: 4-0-2.
High corners: 10.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Rubio Nu	Guarani Asuncion
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.3	1 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.6	0.5 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/60/30%	30/60/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4.5	3.6 / 6.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.9 / 0.4	3.4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.90

X3.10

22.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.80

2 (-0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.252.00

Under 2.251.80

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 21:47

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.90 → 2.90	Pinn 3.12 ★
X	3.10 → 3.10	Pinn 3.15
2	2.25 → 2.25	Pinn 2.40

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2% Pinnacle margin 5.5%

Time*	1	X	2
21:43 +4’	2.90	3.10	2.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
16:12 +245’	3.09	3.11	2.38
22:09 +25’	3.12▲	3.15▲	2.40▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Rubio Nu 2–0–4 Guarani Asuncion

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/08/26 Paraguay Division Profesional	Guarani Asuncion	2-3 HT 0-1	Rubio Nu
01/04/26 Paraguay Division Profesional	Rubio Nu	0-2 HT 0-0	Guarani Asuncion
02/02/26 Paraguay Division Profesional	Guarani Asuncion	4-0 HT 1-0	Rubio Nu
13/11/17 Paraguay Division Profesional	Guarani Asuncion	0-1 HT 0-1	Rubio Nu
01/09/17 Paraguay Division Profesional	Rubio Nu	0-1 HT 0-0	Guarani Asuncion
18/06/17 Paraguay Division Profesional	Guarani Asuncion	2-1 HT 1-0	Rubio Nu

Standings · Paraguay Division Profesional

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Deportivo Recoleta	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Cerro Porteno	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Guarani Asuncion	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Olimpia Asuncion	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	2 de Mayo	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Libertad Asuncion	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Nacional Asuncion	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Rubio Nu	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sportivo San Lorenzo	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sportivo Ameliano	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sportivo Luqueno	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sportivo Trinidense	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Rubio Nu	Guarani Asuncion
Deportivo Recoleta	0-1 L	2-0 W
Olimpia Asuncion	0-0 D	1-1 D
Sportivo Ameliano	2-1 W	1-1 D
2 de Mayo	2-2 D	0-0 D
Cerro Porteno	0-1 L	1-1 D
Nacional Asuncion	0-1 L	0-2 L
Libertad Asuncion	2-4 L	2-2 D
Sportivo San Lorenzo	3-1 W	1-1 D
Sportivo Luqueno	1-2 L	1-0 W
Sportivo Trinidense	0-0 D	1-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 3 D 5 L	3 W 6 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Guarani Asuncion (5 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Rubio Nu

DLWLLLDWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Deportivo Recoleta Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	0-1	4	7	L
11/10	Olimpia Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	0-0	6	4	D
06/10	Sportivo Ameliano Paraguay Division Profesional	1-0	2-1	5	7	W
26/09	2 de Mayo Paraguay Division Profesional	1-1	2-2	3	3	D
19/09	Cerro Porteno Paraguay Division Profesional	0-1	0-1	5	5	L
13/09	Nacional Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	0-1	3	5	L
06/09	Libertad Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	1-2	2-4	5	3	L
01/09	Sportivo San Lorenzo Paraguay Division Profesional	1-1	3-1	5	7	W
28/08	Sportivo Luqueno Paraguay Division Profesional	0-1	1-2	5	5	L
21/08	Sportivo Trinidense Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	0-0	4	7	D

Guarani Asuncion

DDDWDWWDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Nacional Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	0-2	10	3	L
12/10	Libertad Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	1-1	2-2	5	5	D
03/10	Sportivo San Lorenzo Paraguay Division Profesional	1-0	1-1	5	6	D
25/09	Sportivo Luqueno Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	1-0	5	5	W
18/09	Sportivo Trinidense Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	1-0	7	3	W
12/09	Cerro Porteno Paraguay Division Profesional	1-1	1-1	6	4	D
07/09	Deportivo Recoleta Paraguay Division Profesional	1-0	2-0	5	0	W
02/09	Olimpia Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	1-0	1-1	3	5	D
30/08	Sportivo Ameliano Paraguay Division Profesional	0-1	1-1	9	3	D
25/08	2 de Mayo Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	0-0	7	1	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Rubio Nu vs Guarani Asuncion?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Guarani Asuncion win (40%). Probabilities: Rubio Nu 31%, draw 30%, Guarani Asuncion 40%.

How many goals are expected in Rubio Nu vs Guarani Asuncion?

The model expects 2.35 goals (Rubio Nu 1.08 · Guarani Asuncion 1.27), with a 52% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Rubio Nu vs Guarani Asuncion?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.