Football · Paraguay Division Profesional · 17/10, 22:00

Prediction: Guarani Asuncion vs Nacional Asuncion

Team pages: Guarani Asuncion · Nacional Asuncion

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2Total

Guarani Asuncion0.94

Nacional Asuncion1.05

1X2

31% 32% 37%

Guarani Asuncion Draw Nacional Asuncion

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 61% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

0-0 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Guarani Asuncion 3-6-1 (W-D-L)

LDDDWDWWDD

Nacional Asuncion 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

DDWWWLWWDD

Head-to-head

Guarani Asuncion 1–2–3 Nacional Asuncion (6 last)

Nacional Asuncion0-0Guarani Asuncion
Guarani Asuncion0-1Nacional Asuncion
Nacional Asuncion1-1Guarani Asuncion
Guarani Asuncion0-4Nacional Asuncion
Guarani Asuncion2-0Nacional Asuncion
Nacional Asuncion1-0Guarani Asuncion

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Guarani Asuncion 1507 · Nacional Asuncion 1591

	Guarani Asuncion	Draw	Nacional Asuncion
Our model	30%	34%	36%
Market	32%	30%	38%

Estimated total (ours) 2 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Nacional Asuncion (rating 1507 vs 1591).
H2H favours Nacional Asuncion: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Guarani Asuncion	Nacional Asuncion
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 0.9	1.5 / 0.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.4	0.8 / 0.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	60/40/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.4 / 5.5	2 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.1	3.4 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.80

X3.00

22.38

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)2.05

2 (0)1.75

Line ⓘ

Over 21.77

Under 22.02

Diff.: 0 · xG: 2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 23:19

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.80 → 2.80	Bet365 2.80
X	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
2	2.38 → 2.38	Bet365 2.38

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
23:14 +6’	2.80	3.00	2.38

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Guarani Asuncion 1–2–3 Nacional Asuncion

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/08/26 Paraguay Division Profesional	Nacional Asuncion	0-0 HT 0-0	Guarani Asuncion
04/05/26 Paraguay Division Profesional	Guarani Asuncion	0-1 HT 0-0	Nacional Asuncion
01/03/26 Paraguay Division Profesional	Nacional Asuncion	1-1 HT 0-0	Guarani Asuncion
14/11/25 Paraguay Cup	Guarani Asuncion	0-4 HT 0-2	Nacional Asuncion
21/09/25 Paraguay Division Profesional	Guarani Asuncion	2-0 HT 0-0	Nacional Asuncion
12/07/25 Paraguay Division Profesional	Nacional Asuncion	1-0 HT 0-0	Guarani Asuncion

Standings · Paraguay Division Profesional

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Deportivo Recoleta	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Cerro Porteno	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Guarani Asuncion	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Olimpia Asuncion	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	2 de Mayo	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Libertad Asuncion	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Nacional Asuncion	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Rubio Nu	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sportivo San Lorenzo	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sportivo Ameliano	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sportivo Luqueno	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sportivo Trinidense	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Guarani Asuncion	Nacional Asuncion
Libertad Asuncion	2-2 D	3-0 W
Sportivo San Lorenzo	1-1 D	3-0 W
Sportivo Luqueno	1-0 W	2-0 W
Sportivo Trinidense	1-0 W	1-1 D
Cerro Porteno	1-1 D	0-1 L
Olimpia Asuncion	1-1 D	1-1 D
Sportivo Ameliano	1-1 D	1-1 D
2 de Mayo	0-0 D	3-0 W
Rubio Nu	2-3 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 6 D 1 L	5 W 3 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Nacional Asuncion (5 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Guarani Asuncion

LDDDWDWWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/10	Libertad Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	1-1	2-2	5	5	D
03/10	Sportivo San Lorenzo Paraguay Division Profesional	1-0	1-1	5	6	D
25/09	Sportivo Luqueno Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	1-0	5	5	W
18/09	Sportivo Trinidense Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	1-0	7	3	W
12/09	Cerro Porteno Paraguay Division Profesional	1-1	1-1	6	4	D
07/09	Deportivo Recoleta Paraguay Division Profesional	1-0	2-0	5	0	W
02/09	Olimpia Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	1-0	1-1	3	5	D
30/08	Sportivo Ameliano Paraguay Division Profesional	0-1	1-1	9	3	D
25/08	2 de Mayo Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	0-0	7	1	D
15/08	Rubio Nu Paraguay Division Profesional	0-1	2-3	3	3	L

Nacional Asuncion

DDWWWLWWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/10	Olimpia Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	1-0	1-1	4	4	D
26/09	Sportivo Ameliano Paraguay Division Profesional	1-0	1-1	13	2	D
18/09	2 de Mayo Paraguay Division Profesional	2-0	3-0	3	7	W
13/09	Rubio Nu Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	1-0	2	5	W
07/09	Cerro Porteno Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	0-1	6	0	L
02/09	Libertad Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	1-0	3-0	3	3	W
28/08	Sportivo San Lorenzo Paraguay Division Profesional	1-0	3-0	4	2	W
24/08	Sportivo Luqueno Paraguay Division Profesional	1-0	2-0	4	3	W
15/08	Sportivo Trinidense Paraguay Division Profesional	1-1	1-1	4	6	D
09/08	Guarani Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	0-0	3	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Guarani Asuncion vs Nacional Asuncion?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Nacional Asuncion win (37%). Probabilities: Guarani Asuncion 31%, draw 32%, Nacional Asuncion 37%.

How many goals are expected in Guarani Asuncion vs Nacional Asuncion?

The model expects 2 goals (Guarani Asuncion 0.94 · Nacional Asuncion 1.05), with a 50% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Guarani Asuncion vs Nacional Asuncion?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.