Football · Chile Liga de Primera · 25/10, 16:30
Prediction: Nublense vs Coquimbo Unido
Team pages: Nublense · Coquimbo Unido
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.84Total
Nublense1.33
Coquimbo Unido1.51
1X2
Nublense
Draw
Coquimbo Unido
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 50%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Nublense
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Coquimbo Unido
3-4-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Nublense
1–3–2
Coquimbo Unido
(6 last)
- Coquimbo Unido1-1Nublense
- Coquimbo Unido2-1Nublense
- Nublense0-0Coquimbo Unido
- Coquimbo Unido1-0Nublense
- Nublense0-0Coquimbo Unido
- Coquimbo Unido1-3Nublense
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Nublense 1465 · Coquimbo Unido 1530
| Nublense | Draw | Coquimbo Unido | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 32% | 27% | 40% |
| Market | 31% | 30% | 39% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.84 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Coquimbo Unido (rating 1465 vs 1530).
- H2H favours Coquimbo Unido: 2-3-1.
- High corners: 11.5 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 9.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Nublense | Coquimbo Unido | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 2 | 1.7 / 1.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.8 | 0.7 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/40/40% | 30/70/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3 / 4.7 | 3.2 / 6.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.4 / 0.4 | 5 / 0.5 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Nublense 1–3–2 Coquimbo Unido
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19/04/26 Chile Liga de Primera | Coquimbo Unido | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Nublense |
| 12/09/25 Chile Liga de Primera | Coquimbo Unido | 2-1 HT 0-0 | Nublense |
| 21/04/25 Chile Liga de Primera | Nublense | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Coquimbo Unido |
| 20/07/24 Chile Liga de Primera | Coquimbo Unido | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Nublense |
| 17/02/24 Chile Liga de Primera | Nublense | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Coquimbo Unido |
| 30/09/23 Chile Liga de Primera | Coquimbo Unido | 1-3 HT 0-0 | Nublense |
Standings · Chile Liga de Primera
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Colo Colo | 24 | 17 | 3 | 4 | 50 | 27 | 54 |
| 2 | Universidad de Chile | 24 | 13 | 6 | 5 | 41 | 19 | 45 |
| 3 | Universidad Catolica | 23 | 13 | 3 | 7 | 50 | 33 | 42 |
| 4 | Everton de Vina | 24 | 11 | 6 | 7 | 40 | 27 | 39 |
| 5 | Palestino | 24 | 11 | 4 | 9 | 38 | 35 | 37 |
| 6 | Deportes Limache | 24 | 10 | 4 | 10 | 45 | 37 | 34 |
| 7 | Huachipato | 24 | 10 | 4 | 10 | 34 | 39 | 34 |
| 8 | Coquimbo Unido | 24 | 9 | 5 | 10 | 36 | 34 | 32 |
| 9 | Deportes Concepcion | 24 | 9 | 5 | 10 | 26 | 27 | 32 |
| 10 | Nublense | 24 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 28 | 37 | 32 |
| 11 | La Serena | 24 | 7 | 9 | 8 | 36 | 41 | 30 |
| 12 | Audax Italiano | 23 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 26 | 31 | 28 |
| 13 | O'Higgins | 24 | 8 | 3 | 13 | 28 | 38 | 27 |
| 14 | Cobresal | 24 | 7 | 4 | 13 | 35 | 45 | 25 |
| 15 | Universidad de Concepcion | 24 | 6 | 5 | 13 | 18 | 40 | 23 |
| 16 | Union La Calera | 24 | 4 | 6 | 14 | 20 | 41 | 18 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Nublense | Coquimbo Unido |
|---|---|---|
| Universidad de Chile | 0-6 L | 2-4 L |
| Everton de Vina | 1-3 L | 1-1 D |
| La Serena | 1-2 L | 1-1 D |
| Deportes Limache | 0-2 L | 3-2 W |
| Deportes Concepcion | 0-1 L | 1-1 D |
| Universidad Catolica | 2-1 W | 1-2 L |
| Cobresal | 1-0 W | 2-3 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 0 D 5 L | 1 W 3 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Coquimbo Unido (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Nublense
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/10 | Universidad de Chile Chile Liga de Primera |
0-2 | 0-6 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 12/09 | Everton de Vina Chile Liga de Primera |
0-1 | 1-3 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 06/09 | La Serena Chile Liga de Primera |
1-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 8 | L |
| 03/09 | Deportes Limache Chile Liga de Primera |
0-0 | 0-2 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 30/08 | Deportes Concepcion Chile Liga de Primera |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 23/08 | Universidad Catolica Chile Liga de Primera |
0-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 8 | W |
| 16/08 | Union La Calera Chile Liga de Primera |
2-0 | 2-1 | 10 | 2 | W |
| 11/08 | Audax Italiano Chile Liga de Primera |
1-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 5 | D |
| 14/06 | Huachipato Chile Liga de Primera |
1-2 | 2-2 | 10 | 5 | D |
| 30/05 | Cobresal Chile Liga de Primera |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
Coquimbo Unido
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10 | Colo Colo Chile Liga de Primera |
3-1 | 5-2 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 12/09 | Cobresal Chile Liga de Primera |
1-1 | 2-3 | 9 | 4 | L |
| 06/09 | Universidad de Chile Chile Liga de Primera |
0-0 | 2-4 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 03/09 | Universidad de Concepcion Chile Liga de Primera |
0-0 | 1-0 | 12 | 4 | W |
| 27/08 | Universidad Catolica Chile Liga de Primera |
1-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 23/08 | Deportes Concepcion Chile Liga de Primera |
1-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 7 | D |
| 08/08 | La Serena Chile Liga de Primera |
0-0 | 1-1 | 12 | 8 | D |
| 13/06 | O'Higgins Chile Liga de Primera |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 5 | D |
| 31/05 | Deportes Limache Chile Liga de Primera |
1-1 | 3-2 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 22/05 | Everton de Vina Chile Liga de Primera |
0-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 8 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Nublense vs Coquimbo Unido?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Coquimbo Unido win (40%). Probabilities: Nublense 32%, draw 29%, Coquimbo Unido 40%.
How many goals are expected in Nublense vs Coquimbo Unido?
The model expects 2.84 goals (Nublense 1.33 · Coquimbo Unido 1.51), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Nublense vs Coquimbo Unido?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.