Football · Chile Liga de Primera · 01/11, 22:00

Prediction: Universidad Catolica vs Universidad de Chile

Team pages: Universidad Catolica · Universidad de Chile

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.09Total

Universidad Catolica1.58

Universidad de Chile1.5

1X2

38% 27% 35%

Universidad Catolica Draw Universidad de Chile

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Universidad Catolica 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WDLWLWWWWL

Universidad de Chile 8-0-2 (W-D-L)

WWWWLLWWWW

Head-to-head

Universidad Catolica 2–4 Universidad de Chile (6 last)

Universidad de Chile1-0Universidad Catolica
Universidad Catolica1-0Universidad de Chile
Universidad de Chile1-0Universidad Catolica
Universidad Catolica1-2Universidad de Chile
Universidad de Chile1-2Universidad Catolica
Universidad Catolica1-3Universidad de Chile

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Universidad Catolica 1512 · Universidad de Chile 1579

	Universidad Catolica	Draw	Universidad de Chile
Our model	39%	26%	35%
Market	38%	28%	34%

Estimated total (ours) 3.09 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Universidad de Chile (rating 1512 vs 1579).
H2H favours Universidad de Chile: 4-0-2.
High corners: 12 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Universidad Catolica	Universidad de Chile
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 1.7	2.8 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.7	0.9 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.8	2.9 / 7.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.3	3.8 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.45

X3.30

22.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.80

2 (0)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.85

Under 2.51.95

Diff.: 1.3 · xG: 3.8

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 14:54

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.35 → 2.45▲	Bet365 2.45
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	2.80 → 2.70▼	Bet365 2.70

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 8.2%

Time*	1	X	2
00:25 +1’	2.35	3.30	2.80
14:52 +2’	2.45▲	3.30	2.70▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Universidad Catolica 2–0–4 Universidad de Chile

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/04/26 Chile Liga de Primera	Universidad de Chile	1-0 HT 1-0	Universidad Catolica
26/10/25 Chile Liga de Primera	Universidad Catolica	1-0 HT 0-0	Universidad de Chile
03/05/25 Chile Liga de Primera	Universidad de Chile	1-0 HT 0-0	Universidad Catolica
19/10/24 Chile Liga de Primera	Universidad Catolica	1-2 HT 1-0	Universidad de Chile
18/05/24 Chile Liga de Primera	Universidad de Chile	1-2 HT 1-1	Universidad Catolica
28/01/24 Club Friendly List	Universidad Catolica	1-3 HT 1-2	Universidad de Chile

Standings · Chile Liga de Primera

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Colo Colo	25	17	4	4	51	28	55
2	Universidad de Chile	25	14	6	5	45	20	48
3	Universidad Catolica	24	13	3	8	51	36	42
4	Everton de Vina	25	11	6	8	41	31	39
5	Palestino	25	11	5	9	39	36	38
6	Deportes Limache	25	11	4	10	46	37	37
7	Huachipato	25	10	5	10	35	40	35
8	Nublense	25	9	8	8	30	38	35
9	La Serena	25	8	9	8	39	42	33
10	Coquimbo Unido	25	9	5	11	37	36	32
11	Deportes Concepcion	25	9	5	11	27	30	32
12	Audax Italiano	24	7	8	9	27	32	29
13	O'Higgins	25	8	4	13	29	39	28
14	Cobresal	25	7	5	13	36	46	26
15	Universidad de Concepcion	25	6	5	14	18	41	23
16	Union La Calera	25	5	6	14	23	42	21

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Universidad Catolica	Universidad de Chile
Palestino	3-2 W	2-1 W
Everton de Vina	1-0 W	4-1 W
Coquimbo Unido	2-1 W	4-2 W
Nublense	1-2 L	6-0 W
La Serena	3-3 D	3-0 W
Universidad de Concepcion	5-1 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 1 L	5 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Universidad de Chile (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Universidad Catolica

WDLWLWWWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	Union La Calera Chile Liga de Primera	1-1	1-3	3	5	L
13/09	Palestino Chile Liga de Primera	2-1	3-2	5	5	W
05/09	Everton de Vina Chile Liga de Primera	1-0	1-0	4	3	W
01/09	O'Higgins Chile Liga de Primera	2-1	3-2	7	6	W
27/08	Coquimbo Unido Chile Liga de Primera	0-1	2-1	2	3	W
23/08	Nublense Chile Liga de Primera	0-0	1-2	2	8	L
08/08	Cobresal Chile Liga de Primera	0-0	2-0	10	4	W
02/08	Deportes Concepcion Chile Liga de Primera	0-2	0-3	4	6	L
26/07	La Serena Chile Liga de Primera	2-0	3-3	6	2	D
14/06	Universidad de Concepcion Chile Liga de Primera	2-1	5-1	5	4	W

Universidad de Chile

WWWWLLWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/10	Everton de Vina Chile Liga de Primera	2-0	4-1	6	6	W
12/10	Nublense Chile Liga de Primera	2-0	6-0	7	2	W
13/09	La Serena Chile Liga de Primera	0-0	3-0	6	3	W
06/09	Coquimbo Unido Chile Liga de Primera	0-0	4-2	5	5	W
30/08	Universidad de Concepcion Chile Liga de Primera	0-2	1-2	15	7	L
23/08	Colo Colo Chile Liga de Primera	1-1	1-2	4	8	L
15/08	Deportes Limache Chile Liga de Primera	1-1	3-1	6	2	W
10/08	Palestino Chile Liga de Primera	2-0	2-1	5	2	W
02/08	Huachipato Chile Liga de Primera	0-0	2-0	13	3	W
26/07	Audax Italiano Chile Liga de Primera	1-0	2-1	5	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Universidad Catolica vs Universidad de Chile?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Universidad Catolica win (38%). Probabilities: Universidad Catolica 38%, draw 27%, Universidad de Chile 35%.

How many goals are expected in Universidad Catolica vs Universidad de Chile?

The model expects 3.09 goals (Universidad Catolica 1.58 · Universidad de Chile 1.5), with a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Universidad Catolica vs Universidad de Chile?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.