Football · Chile Liga de Primera · 01/11, 22:00

Prediction: O'Higgins vs Nublense

Team pages: O'Higgins · Nublense

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.88Total

O'Higgins1.62

Nublense1.26

1X2

44% 28% 28%

O'Higgins Draw Nublense

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

O'Higgins 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LWLDLLWLLD

Nublense 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

DDWWLLLLLW

Head-to-head

O'Higgins 4–2 Nublense (6 last)

O'Higgins1-0Nublense
Nublense2-1O'Higgins
Nublense0-2O'Higgins
O'Higgins4-2Nublense
Nublense0-1O'Higgins
O'Higgins1-3Nublense

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · O'Higgins 1538 · Nublense 1459

	O'Higgins	Draw	Nublense
Our model	45%	27%	29%
Market	44%	28%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 2.88 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours O'Higgins (rating 1538 vs 1459).
H2H favours O'Higgins: 4-0-2.
High corners: 10.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	O'Higgins	Nublense
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.7	1.2 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.8	0.6 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/20/60%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 5.8	2.7 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.8 / 0.3	4.5 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.25

23.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.00

2 (+0.5)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.252.00

Under 2.251.80

Diff.: 0.75 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:25

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10
X	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
2	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.7%

Time*	1	X	2
00:25 +1’	2.10	3.25	3.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · O'Higgins 4–0–2 Nublense

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Date	Home	Score	Away
13/07/26 Chile Copa de la Liga	O'Higgins	1-0 HT 0-0	Nublense
10/07/26 Chile Copa de la Liga	Nublense	2-1 HT 1-1	O'Higgins
25/04/26 Chile Liga de Primera	Nublense	0-2 HT 0-2	O'Higgins
09/11/25 Chile Liga de Primera	O'Higgins	4-2 HT 1-1	Nublense
25/05/25 Chile Liga de Primera	Nublense	0-1 HT 0-0	O'Higgins
19/10/24 Chile Liga de Primera	O'Higgins	1-3 HT 0-1	Nublense

Standings · Chile Liga de Primera

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Colo Colo	25	17	4	4	51	28	55
2	Universidad de Chile	25	14	6	5	45	20	48
3	Universidad Catolica	24	13	3	8	51	36	42
4	Everton de Vina	25	11	6	8	41	31	39
5	Palestino	25	11	5	9	39	36	38
6	Deportes Limache	25	11	4	10	46	37	37
7	Huachipato	25	10	5	10	35	40	35
8	Nublense	25	9	8	8	30	38	35
9	La Serena	25	8	9	8	39	42	33
10	Coquimbo Unido	25	9	5	11	37	36	32
11	Deportes Concepcion	25	9	5	11	27	30	32
12	Audax Italiano	24	7	8	9	27	32	29
13	O'Higgins	25	8	4	13	29	39	28
14	Cobresal	25	7	5	13	36	46	26
15	Universidad de Concepcion	25	6	5	14	18	41	23
16	Union La Calera	25	5	6	14	23	42	21

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	O'Higgins	Nublense
Huachipato	0-2 L	2-2 D
Audax Italiano	0-1 L	2-2 D
Union La Calera	2-1 W	2-1 W
Universidad Catolica	2-3 L	2-1 W
Deportes Limache	1-3 L	0-2 L
La Serena	2-1 W	1-2 L
Deportes Concepcion	0-2 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 5 L	2 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Nublense (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

O'Higgins

LWLDLLWLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	Cobresal Chile Liga de Primera	1-0	1-1	10	4	D
10/10	Huachipato Chile Liga de Primera	0-1	0-2	3	4	L
14/09	Audax Italiano Chile Liga de Primera	0-1	0-1	9	8	L
06/09	Union La Calera Chile Liga de Primera	2-0	2-1	2	4	W
01/09	Universidad Catolica Chile Liga de Primera	1-2	2-3	10	6	L
24/08	Palestino Chile Liga de Primera	0-0	0-1	0	6	L
16/08	Colo Colo Chile Liga de Primera	0-0	2-2	4	4	D
09/08	Deportes Limache Chile Liga de Primera	0-2	1-3	9	6	L
02/08	La Serena Chile Liga de Primera	0-1	2-1	7	3	W
27/07	Deportes Concepcion Chile Liga de Primera	0-1	0-2	4	6	L

Nublense

DDWWLLLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	Coquimbo Unido Chile Liga de Primera	1-1	2-1	6	6	W
12/10	Universidad de Chile Chile Liga de Primera	0-2	0-6	3	2	L
12/09	Everton de Vina Chile Liga de Primera	0-1	1-3	4	6	L
06/09	La Serena Chile Liga de Primera	1-1	1-2	5	8	L
03/09	Deportes Limache Chile Liga de Primera	0-0	0-2	5	3	L
30/08	Deportes Concepcion Chile Liga de Primera	0-1	0-1	3	4	L
23/08	Universidad Catolica Chile Liga de Primera	0-0	2-1	2	8	W
16/08	Union La Calera Chile Liga de Primera	2-0	2-1	10	2	W
11/08	Audax Italiano Chile Liga de Primera	1-1	2-2	1	5	D
14/06	Huachipato Chile Liga de Primera	1-2	2-2	10	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in O'Higgins vs Nublense?

According to our model, the most likely result is a O'Higgins win (44%). Probabilities: O'Higgins 44%, draw 28%, Nublense 28%.

How many goals are expected in O'Higgins vs Nublense?

The model expects 2.88 goals (O'Higgins 1.62 · Nublense 1.26), with a 55% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in O'Higgins vs Nublense?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.