Football · Bulgaria Second League · 27/10, 17:00

Prediction: FK Fratria vs Montana

Team pages: FK Fratria · Montana

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.14Total

FK Fratria2.35

Montana0.8

1X2

71% 19% 10%

FK Fratria Draw Montana

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

2-0 12%

Recent form · 10 last

FK Fratria 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

WWDWDDDWWL

Montana 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

LWLWDLLLLL

Head-to-head

FK Fratria 1–1 Montana (2 last)

Montana0-1FK Fratria
FK Fratria1-2Montana

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Fratria 1539 · Montana 1423

	FK Fratria	Draw	Montana
Our model	71%	19%	10%
Market	71%	19%	10%

Estimated total (ours) 3.14 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK Fratria (rating 1539 vs 1423).
Cards-heavy: 10.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Fratria	Montana
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 0.9	1 / 2.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.3	0.6 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/60/10%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 6	1.2 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.3 / 0	5.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.27

X4.75

29.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.80

2 (+1.5)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 31.93

Under 31.88

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:19

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.27 → 1.27	Bet365 1.27
X	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75
2	9.00 → 9.00	Bet365 9.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.9%

Time*	1	X	2
00:16 +3’	1.27	4.75	9.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Fratria 1–0–1 Montana

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
22/03/25 Bulgaria Second League	Montana	0-1 HT 0-0	FK Fratria
07/09/24 Bulgaria Second League	FK Fratria	1-2 HT 0-0	Montana

Standings · Bulgaria Second League

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CSKA Sofia II	12	7	3	2	23	9	24
2	Vihren Sandanski	12	7	3	2	25	12	24
3	Chernomorets Burgas	12	7	3	2	21	8	24
4	FK Fratria	12	6	4	2	17	10	22
5	Rilski Sportist	12	5	4	3	14	10	19
6	Yantra Gabrovo	12	6	1	5	13	11	19
7	Nesebar	12	5	3	4	20	17	18
8	Beroe	12	5	3	4	18	15	18
9	Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa	12	4	5	3	9	10	17
10	FC Hebar Pazardzhik	12	5	2	5	27	20	17
11	Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo	11	5	2	4	19	19	17
12	Marek Dupnitsa	12	5	2	5	14	14	17
13	Ludogorets Razgrad II	11	4	3	4	12	12	15
14	Spartak Pleven	12	4	2	6	12	23	14
15	Montana	12	3	2	7	15	26	11
16	Sportist Svoge	12	2	4	6	8	13	10
17	PFC Dobrudzha Dobrich	12	2	3	7	12	21	9
18	Pirin Blagoevgrad	12	0	1	11	5	34	1

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Fratria	Montana
Ludogorets Razgrad II	1-1 D	2-3 L
Chernomorets Burgas	2-2 D	0-2 L
FC Hebar Pazardzhik	1-1 D	0-5 L
CSKA Sofia II	1-0 W	0-4 L
Vihren Sandanski	2-2 D	1-4 L
Beroe	2-0 W	0-0 D
Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa	2-0 W	3-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 4 D 0 L	1 W 1 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: FK Fratria (6 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FK Fratria

WWDWDDDWWL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/10	Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo Bulgaria Second League	0-0	0-2	5	6	L
27/09	Spartak Pleven Bulgaria Second League	1-0	3-0	4	2	W
20/09	Pirin Blagoevgrad Bulgaria Second League	2-1	2-1	–	–	W
15/09	Ludogorets Razgrad II Bulgaria Second League	0-0	1-1	6	9	D
07/09	Chernomorets Burgas Bulgaria Second League	1-1	2-2	6	6	D
01/09	FC Hebar Pazardzhik Bulgaria Second League	0-0	1-1	7	3	D
29/08	CSKA Sofia II Bulgaria Second League	0-0	1-0	9	4	W
24/08	Vihren Sandanski Bulgaria Second League	0-1	2-2	7	5	D
14/08	Beroe Bulgaria Second League	0-0	2-0	6	7	W
09/08	Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa Bulgaria Second League	2-0	2-0	4	6	W

Montana

LWLWDLLLLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/10	Ludogorets Razgrad II Bulgaria Second League	2-1	2-3	1	9	L
27/09	Chernomorets Burgas Bulgaria Second League	0-1	0-2	0	4	L
21/09	FC Hebar Pazardzhik Bulgaria Second League	0-3	0-5	7	4	L
13/09	CSKA Sofia II Bulgaria Second League	0-1	0-4	7	7	L
08/09	Vihren Sandanski Bulgaria Second League	0-1	1-4	6	5	L
03/09	Beroe Bulgaria Second League	0-0	0-0	3	7	D
30/08	Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa Bulgaria Second League	1-0	3-0	2	5	W
22/08	Rilski Sportist Bulgaria Second League	1-1	1-2	7	5	L
16/08	Marek Dupnitsa Bulgaria Second League	0-0	1-0	4	6	W
11/08	Yantra Gabrovo Bulgaria Second League	2-2	2-3	4	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Fratria vs Montana?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FK Fratria win (71%). Probabilities: FK Fratria 71%, draw 19%, Montana 10%.

How many goals are expected in FK Fratria vs Montana?

The model expects 3.14 goals (FK Fratria 2.35 · Montana 0.8), with a 51% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Fratria vs Montana?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.