Football · Bulgaria Second League · 30/10, 16:30

Prediction: Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa vs Beroe

Team pages: Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa · Beroe

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.14Total

Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa1.18

Beroe0.96

1X2

40% 30% 29%

Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa Draw Beroe

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 64% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

WWLWDDWDDW

Beroe 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LWDDDWLWLW

Head-to-head

Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa 1–1–2 Beroe (4 last)

Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa0-1Beroe
Beroe2-3Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa
Beroe1-1Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa
Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa0-1Beroe

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa 1536 · Beroe 1522

	Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa	Draw	Beroe
Our model	39%	32%	29%
Market	41%	29%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 2.14 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Beroe: 2-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa	Beroe
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 0.5	1.7 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.1	0.7 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 4.2	2.7 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0.1	5.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.20

X3.10

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.98

2 (+0.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 21.77

Under 22.02

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:10

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.20 → 2.20	Bet365 2.20
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11%

Time*	1	X	2
17:04 +6’	2.20	3.10	3.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa 1–1–2 Beroe

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Date	Home	Score	Away
29/04/17 Bulgaria First League	Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa	0-1 HT 0-0	Beroe
08/04/17 Bulgaria First League	Beroe	2-3 HT 0-2	Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa
15/12/16 Bulgaria First League	Beroe	1-1 HT 0-0	Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa
12/09/16 Bulgaria First League	Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa	0-1 HT 0-0	Beroe

Standings · Bulgaria Second League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CSKA Sofia II	13	7	4	2	26	12	25
2	Vihren Sandanski	13	7	4	2	26	13	25
3	Chernomorets Burgas	13	7	4	2	22	9	25
4	FK Fratria	12	6	4	2	17	10	22
5	Beroe	13	6	3	4	21	16	21
6	Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa	13	5	5	3	11	10	20
7	FC Hebar Pazardzhik	13	6	2	5	29	21	20
8	Yantra Gabrovo	13	6	2	5	16	14	20
9	Rilski Sportist	13	5	4	4	15	13	19
10	Marek Dupnitsa	13	5	3	5	15	15	18
11	Nesebar	13	5	3	5	21	19	18
12	Spartak Pleven	13	5	2	6	14	24	17
13	Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo	12	5	2	5	20	21	17
14	Ludogorets Razgrad II	11	4	3	4	12	12	15
15	Montana	12	3	2	7	15	26	11
16	Sportist Svoge	13	2	5	6	9	14	11
17	PFC Dobrudzha Dobrich	12	2	3	7	12	21	9
18	Pirin Blagoevgrad	13	0	1	12	5	36	1

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa	Beroe
Rilski Sportist	0-0 D	3-1 W
Marek Dupnitsa	0-0 D	2-3 L
Yantra Gabrovo	1-0 W	1-0 W
Nesebar	1-1 D	3-4 L
Sportist Svoge	0-0 D	1-0 W
PFC Dobrudzha Dobrich	2-0 W	2-2 D
Montana	0-3 L	0-0 D
Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo	2-1 W	2-2 D
Spartak Pleven	1-0 W	3-0 W
Record vs common	4 W 4 D 1 L	4 W 3 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa

WWLWDDWDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/10	Pirin Blagoevgrad Bulgaria Second League	1-0	2-0	4	3	W
10/10	Rilski Sportist Bulgaria Second League	0-0	0-0	3	3	D
26/09	Marek Dupnitsa Bulgaria Second League	0-0	0-0	4	6	D
20/09	Yantra Gabrovo Bulgaria Second League	0-0	1-0	11	2	W
15/09	Nesebar Bulgaria Second League	0-0	1-1	1	2	D
07/09	Sportist Svoge Bulgaria Second League	0-0	0-0	7	1	D
03/09	PFC Dobrudzha Dobrich Bulgaria Second League	1-0	2-0	6	1	W
30/08	Montana Bulgaria Second League	0-1	0-3	2	5	L
21/08	Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo Bulgaria Second League	1-0	2-1	2	3	W
16/08	Spartak Pleven Bulgaria Second League	1-0	1-0	2	5	W

Beroe

LWDDDWLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/10	Rilski Sportist Bulgaria Second League	1-1	3-1	6	6	W
10/10	Marek Dupnitsa Bulgaria Second League	1-3	2-3	10	5	L
27/09	Yantra Gabrovo Bulgaria Second League	0-0	1-0	5	5	W
20/09	Nesebar Bulgaria Second League	0-2	3-4	5	6	L
13/09	Sportist Svoge Bulgaria Second League	1-0	1-0	7	5	W
06/09	PFC Dobrudzha Dobrich Bulgaria Second League	0-0	2-2	3	7	D
03/09	Montana Bulgaria Second League	0-0	0-0	3	7	D
29/08	Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo Bulgaria Second League	2-1	2-2	3	8	D
25/08	Spartak Pleven Bulgaria Second League	2-0	3-0	7	4	W
14/08	FK Fratria Bulgaria Second League	0-0	0-2	2	7	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa vs Beroe?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa win (40%). Probabilities: Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa 40%, draw 30%, Beroe 29%.

How many goals are expected in Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa vs Beroe?

The model expects 2.14 goals (Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa 1.18 · Beroe 0.96), with a 52% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa vs Beroe?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.