Football · Bulgaria Second League · 31/10, 13:30

Prediction: Nesebar vs Chernomorets Burgas

Team pages: Nesebar · Chernomorets Burgas

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.4Total

Nesebar1.1

Chernomorets Burgas1.3

1X2

31% 29% 40%

Nesebar Draw Chernomorets Burgas

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Nesebar 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WWDLWDWLDL

Chernomorets Burgas 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

LLWWDWWWWD

Head-to-head

Nesebar 2–2 Chernomorets Burgas (4 last)

Nesebar1-0Chernomorets Burgas
Chernomorets Burgas0-1Nesebar
Nesebar1-2Chernomorets Burgas
Nesebar1-2Chernomorets Burgas

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Nesebar 1511 · Chernomorets Burgas 1548

	Nesebar	Draw	Chernomorets Burgas
Our model	30%	30%	40%
Market	31%	28%	41%

Estimated total (ours) 2.4 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Nesebar	Chernomorets Burgas
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.1	1.9 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.3	0.9 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	60/30/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 4.3	2.1 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0.3	4.7 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.90

X3.20

22.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.82

2 (-0.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.80

Under 2.252.00

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:15

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	2.20 → 2.20	Bet365 2.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
17:12 +3’	2.90	3.20	2.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Nesebar 2–0–2 Chernomorets Burgas

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/05/23 Bulgaria Third League	Nesebar	1-0 HT 0-0	Chernomorets Burgas
26/10/22 Bulgaria Third League	Chernomorets Burgas	0-1 HT 0-1	Nesebar
21/04/21 Bulgaria Third League	Nesebar	1-2 HT 0-1	Chernomorets Burgas
23/01/19 World Club Friendlies	Nesebar	1-2 HT 0-2	Chernomorets Burgas

Standings · Bulgaria Second League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CSKA Sofia II	13	7	4	2	26	12	25
2	Vihren Sandanski	13	7	4	2	26	13	25
3	Chernomorets Burgas	13	7	4	2	22	9	25
4	FK Fratria	12	6	4	2	17	10	22
5	Beroe	13	6	3	4	21	16	21
6	Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa	13	5	5	3	11	10	20
7	FC Hebar Pazardzhik	13	6	2	5	29	21	20
8	Yantra Gabrovo	13	6	2	5	16	14	20
9	Rilski Sportist	13	5	4	4	15	13	19
10	Marek Dupnitsa	13	5	3	5	15	15	18
11	Nesebar	13	5	3	5	21	19	18
12	Spartak Pleven	13	5	2	6	14	24	17
13	Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo	12	5	2	5	20	21	17
14	Ludogorets Razgrad II	11	4	3	4	12	12	15
15	Montana	12	3	2	7	15	26	11
16	Sportist Svoge	13	2	5	6	9	14	11
17	PFC Dobrudzha Dobrich	12	2	3	7	12	21	9
18	Pirin Blagoevgrad	13	0	1	12	5	36	1

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Nesebar	Chernomorets Burgas
FC Hebar Pazardzhik	1-2 L	0-1 L
CSKA Sofia II	0-0 D	0-1 L
Pirin Blagoevgrad	7-0 W	3-0 W
Sportist Svoge	1-0 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Nesebar (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Nesebar

WWDLWDWLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/10	FC Hebar Pazardzhik Bulgaria Second League	0-1	1-2	4	3	L
10/10	CSKA Sofia II Bulgaria Second League	0-0	0-0	7	3	D
27/09	Vihren Sandanski Bulgaria Second League	0-0	0-2	6	3	L
20/09	Beroe Bulgaria Second League	2-0	4-3	4	6	W
15/09	Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa Bulgaria Second League	0-0	1-1	2	2	D
06/09	Rilski Sportist Bulgaria Second League	0-1	2-1	–	–	W
02/09	Marek Dupnitsa Bulgaria Second League	0-1	0-1	3	8	L
29/08	Yantra Gabrovo Bulgaria Second League	1-0	1-1	–	–	D
23/08	Pirin Blagoevgrad Bulgaria Second League	2-0	7-0	6	4	W
16/08	Sportist Svoge Bulgaria Second League	0-0	1-0	2	1	W

Chernomorets Burgas

LLWWDWWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/10	Sportist Svoge Bulgaria Second League	0-0	1-1	7	7	D
10/10	PFC Dobrudzha Dobrich Bulgaria Second League	1-0	3-0	1	3	W
27/09	Montana Bulgaria Second League	1-0	2-0	3	4	W
20/09	Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo Bulgaria Second League	2-0	4-2	0	4	W
13/09	Spartak Pleven Bulgaria Second League	1-0	3-0	6	2	W
07/09	FK Fratria Bulgaria Second League	1-1	2-2	8	6	D
02/09	Ludogorets Razgrad II Bulgaria Second League	1-0	1-0	5	7	W
29/08	Pirin Blagoevgrad Bulgaria Second League	2-0	3-0	–	–	W
23/08	FC Hebar Pazardzhik Bulgaria Second League	0-0	0-1	1	5	L
17/08	CSKA Sofia II Bulgaria Second League	0-1	0-1	4	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Nesebar vs Chernomorets Burgas?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Chernomorets Burgas win (40%). Probabilities: Nesebar 31%, draw 29%, Chernomorets Burgas 40%.

How many goals are expected in Nesebar vs Chernomorets Burgas?

The model expects 2.4 goals (Nesebar 1.1 · Chernomorets Burgas 1.3), with a 52% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Nesebar vs Chernomorets Burgas?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.