Football · Bulgaria Second League · 30/10, 16:30

Prediction: Pirin Blagoevgrad vs Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo

Team pages: Pirin Blagoevgrad · Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.26Total

Pirin Blagoevgrad1.11

Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo2.15

1X2

18% 22% 60%

Pirin Blagoevgrad Draw Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Pirin Blagoevgrad 0-1-9 (W-D-L)

LLLLLLLLDL

Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

WDLDLWLLWL

Head-to-head

Pirin Blagoevgrad 2–2–2 Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo (6 last)

Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo3-2Pirin Blagoevgrad
Pirin Blagoevgrad1-1Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo
Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo2-0Pirin Blagoevgrad
Pirin Blagoevgrad4-1Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo
Pirin Blagoevgrad2-2Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo
Pirin Blagoevgrad2-1Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Pirin Blagoevgrad 1375 · Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo 1476

	Pirin Blagoevgrad	Draw	Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo
Our model	18%	22%	60%
Market	18%	22%	60%

Estimated total (ours) 3.26 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo (rating 1375 vs 1476).
Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Pirin Blagoevgrad	Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo
Goals for / against (FT)	0.4 / 2.7	1.3 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 1.4	0.3 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/30/70%	20/20/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 3.9	2.6 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0.3	5.2 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

15.00

X4.10

21.48

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1)1.98

2 (-1)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 31.98

Under 31.82

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:10

	Bet365	Best now
1	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00
X	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10
2	1.48 → 1.48	Bet365 1.48

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
17:07 +3’	5.00	4.10	1.48

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Pirin Blagoevgrad 2–2–2 Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/04/26 Bulgaria Second League	Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo	3-2 HT 2-1	Pirin Blagoevgrad
26/10/25 Bulgaria Second League	Pirin Blagoevgrad	1-1 HT 0-0	Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo
06/03/25 Bulgaria Second League	Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo	2-0 HT 1-0	Pirin Blagoevgrad
27/08/24 Bulgaria Second League	Pirin Blagoevgrad	4-1 HT 2-0	Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo
17/05/24 Bulgaria First League	Pirin Blagoevgrad	2-2 HT 1-0	Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo
29/03/24 Bulgaria First League	Pirin Blagoevgrad	2-1 HT 1-1	Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo

Standings · Bulgaria Second League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CSKA Sofia II	13	7	4	2	26	12	25
2	Vihren Sandanski	13	7	4	2	26	13	25
3	Chernomorets Burgas	13	7	4	2	22	9	25
4	FK Fratria	12	6	4	2	17	10	22
5	Beroe	13	6	3	4	21	16	21
6	Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa	13	5	5	3	11	10	20
7	FC Hebar Pazardzhik	13	6	2	5	29	21	20
8	Yantra Gabrovo	13	6	2	5	16	14	20
9	Rilski Sportist	13	5	4	4	15	13	19
10	Marek Dupnitsa	13	5	3	5	15	15	18
11	Nesebar	13	5	3	5	21	19	18
12	Spartak Pleven	13	5	2	6	14	24	17
13	Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo	12	5	2	5	20	21	17
14	Ludogorets Razgrad II	11	4	3	4	12	12	15
15	Montana	12	3	2	7	15	26	11
16	Sportist Svoge	13	2	5	6	9	14	11
17	PFC Dobrudzha Dobrich	12	2	3	7	12	21	9
18	Pirin Blagoevgrad	13	0	1	12	5	36	1

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Pirin Blagoevgrad	Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo
Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa	0-2 L	1-2 L
Spartak Pleven	1-1 D	1-2 L
Rilski Sportist	0-1 L	1-1 D
FK Fratria	1-2 L	2-0 W
Marek Dupnitsa	0-3 L	1-0 W
Chernomorets Burgas	0-3 L	2-4 L
FC Hebar Pazardzhik	2-3 L	1-4 L
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 6 L	2 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Pirin Blagoevgrad

LLLLLLLLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/10	Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa Bulgaria Second League	0-1	0-2	2	3	L
10/10	Spartak Pleven Bulgaria Second League	0-0	1-1	6	5	D
26/09	Rilski Sportist Bulgaria Second League	0-1	0-1	2	2	L
20/09	FK Fratria Bulgaria Second League	1-2	1-2	–	–	L
13/09	Marek Dupnitsa Bulgaria Second League	0-3	0-3	4	2	L
07/09	Ludogorets Razgrad II Bulgaria Second League	0-2	0-3	3	4	L
02/09	Yantra Gabrovo Bulgaria Second League	0-0	0-2	–	–	L
29/08	Chernomorets Burgas Bulgaria Second League	0-2	0-3	–	–	L
23/08	Nesebar Bulgaria Second League	0-2	0-7	4	4	L
18/08	FC Hebar Pazardzhik Bulgaria Second League	1-1	2-3	6	4	L

Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo

WDLDLWLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/10	Spartak Pleven Bulgaria Second League	0-1	1-2	9	6	L
09/10	FK Fratria Bulgaria Second League	0-0	2-0	3	6	W
20/09	Chernomorets Burgas Bulgaria Second League	0-2	2-4	6	4	L
14/09	FC Hebar Pazardzhik Bulgaria Second League	0-2	1-4	3	5	L
06/09	CSKA Sofia II Bulgaria Second League	1-0	1-0	1	2	W
03/09	Vihren Sandanski Bulgaria Second League	0-2	1-4	4	6	L
29/08	Beroe Bulgaria Second League	1-2	2-2	7	8	D
21/08	Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa Bulgaria Second League	0-1	1-2	12	3	L
15/08	Rilski Sportist Bulgaria Second League	1-0	1-1	6	5	D
07/08	Marek Dupnitsa Bulgaria Second League	0-0	1-0	3	9	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Pirin Blagoevgrad vs Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo win (60%). Probabilities: Pirin Blagoevgrad 18%, draw 22%, Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo 60%.

How many goals are expected in Pirin Blagoevgrad vs Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo?

The model expects 3.26 goals (Pirin Blagoevgrad 1.11 · Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo 2.15), with a 50% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Pirin Blagoevgrad vs Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.