Football · Portugal Primeira Liga · 26/10, 19:45

Prediction: Santa Clara vs Benfica

Team pages: Santa Clara · Benfica

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.81Total

Santa Clara0.72

Benfica2.09

1X2

11% 21% 68%

Santa Clara Draw Benfica

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

0-2 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Santa Clara 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

WLDWWDWWDW

Benfica 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

DWDWWWWWLW

Head-to-head

Santa Clara 0–1–5 Benfica (6 last)

Santa Clara1-2Benfica
Benfica1-1Santa Clara
Santa Clara0-1Benfica
Benfica3-0Santa Clara
Benfica4-1Santa Clara
Benfica3-0Santa Clara

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Santa Clara 1563 · Benfica 1646

	Santa Clara	Draw	Benfica
Our model	11%	21%	68%
Market	10%	22%	68%

Estimated total (ours) 2.81 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Benfica (rating 1563 vs 1646).
H2H favours Benfica: 5-1-0.
High corners: 12.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Santa Clara	Benfica
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 0.5	2.9 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.2	1.1 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/50/0%	70/20/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4.2	4.6 / 7.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.2	4.9 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

19.00

X4.33

21.38

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.25)1.98

2 (-1.25)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.88

Under 2.51.98

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 22:15

	Bet365	Best now
1	8.50 → 9.00▲	Bet365 9.00
X	4.50 → 4.33▼	Pinn 5.01 ★
2	1.36 → 1.38▲	Bet365 1.38

See the full journey (4)

Bet365 margin 6.7% Pinnacle margin 5.7%

Time*	1	X	2
00:17 +2’	8.50	4.50	1.36
04:24 +4’	9.00▲	4.50	1.36
15:39 +3’	9.50▲	4.50	1.36
22:08 +8’	9.00▼	4.33▼	1.38▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
08:37 +5262’	7.84	4.66	1.40
14:58 +43’	8.38▲	4.91▲	1.36▼
17:17 +12’	8.70▲	5.01▲	1.35▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Santa Clara 0–1–5 Benfica

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Date	Home	Score	Away
13/02/26 Portugal Primeira Liga	Santa Clara	1-2 HT 0-2	Benfica
12/09/25 Portugal Primeira Liga	Benfica	1-1 HT 0-0	Santa Clara
15/02/25 Portugal Primeira Liga	Santa Clara	0-1 HT 0-0	Benfica
30/10/24 Portugal League Cup	Benfica	3-0 HT 0-0	Santa Clara
14/09/24 Portugal Primeira Liga	Benfica	4-1 HT 2-1	Santa Clara
27/05/23 Portugal Primeira Liga	Benfica	3-0 HT 2-0	Santa Clara

Standings · Portugal Primeira Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Porto	8	8	0	0	20	4	24
2	Benfica	8	6	1	1	24	7	19
3	Sporting	8	5	3	0	20	9	18
4	Santa Clara	8	5	3	0	12	4	18
5	Arouca	8	4	2	2	11	7	14
6	Gil Vicente	8	4	2	2	8	6	14
7	Academico Viseu	8	4	2	2	11	10	14
8	Braga	8	3	2	3	9	10	11
9	Alverca	8	3	2	3	13	12	11
10	Estrela	8	2	4	2	14	15	10
11	Moreirense	8	2	2	4	8	15	8
12	Maritimo	8	2	2	4	9	14	8
13	Famalicao	8	1	4	3	10	11	7
14	Rio Ave	8	2	1	5	8	17	7
15	Guimaraes	8	1	2	5	5	10	5
16	Nacional	8	1	1	6	9	18	4
17	Casa Pia	8	1	1	6	3	17	4
18	Estoril	8	0	2	6	4	12	2

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Santa Clara	Benfica
Casa Pia	1-0 W	7-0 W
Braga	0-0 D	2-2 D
Academico Viseu	1-0 W	2-2 D
FC Porto	0-1 L	1-3 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Santa Clara (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Santa Clara

WLDWWDWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Casa Pia Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	1-0	7	8	W
20/09	Braga Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	0-0	5	7	D
13/09	Arouca Portugal Primeira Liga	2-0	2-1	2	8	W
06/09	Rio Ave Portugal Primeira Liga	1-0	4-0	8	2	W
29/08	Alverca Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	1-1	4	3	D
23/08	Famalicao Portugal Primeira Liga	1-0	1-0	1	4	W
15/08	Academico Viseu Portugal Primeira Liga	1-0	1-0	2	4	W
10/08	Nacional Portugal Primeira Liga	2-2	2-2	4	4	D
16/05	FC Porto Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	0-1	5	0	L
11/05	Nacional Portugal Primeira Liga	1-0	2-0	4	3	W

Benfica

DWDWWWWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Guimaraes Portugal Primeira Liga	1-0	2-0	11	7	W
20/09	FC Porto Portugal Primeira Liga	0-1	1-3	3	8	L
13/09	Gil Vicente Portugal Primeira Liga	1-1	3-1	14	5	W
09/09	Moreirense Portugal Primeira Liga	1-0	4-0	7	6	W
05/09	Maritimo Portugal Primeira Liga	1-0	3-0	5	5	W
31/08	Estoril Portugal Primeira Liga	1-0	2-1	9	1	W
17/08	Casa Pia Portugal Primeira Liga	2-0	7-0	3	3	W
09/08	Academico Viseu Portugal Primeira Liga	1-0	2-2	10	6	D
16/05	Estoril Portugal Primeira Liga	3-0	3-1	9	5	W
11/05	Braga Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	2-2	8	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Santa Clara vs Benfica?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Benfica win (68%). Probabilities: Santa Clara 11%, draw 21%, Benfica 68%.

How many goals are expected in Santa Clara vs Benfica?

The model expects 2.81 goals (Santa Clara 0.72 · Benfica 2.09), with a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Santa Clara vs Benfica?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.