Football · Portugal Primeira Liga · 01/11, 16:30

Prediction: Arouca vs Nacional

Team pages: Arouca · Nacional

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.9Total

Arouca1.78

Nacional1.12

1X2

52% 26% 23%

Arouca Draw Nacional

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Arouca 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WWWLWDLDWW

Nacional 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

WDWLLLLLLW

Head-to-head

Arouca 4–1–1 Nacional (6 last)

Arouca3-0Nacional
Nacional1-2Arouca
Nacional1-2Arouca
Arouca1-0Nacional
Arouca0-1Nacional
Nacional2-2Arouca

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Arouca 1559 · Nacional 1430

	Arouca	Draw	Nacional
Our model	52%	26%	23%
Market	52%	26%	23%

Estimated total (ours) 2.9 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Arouca (rating 1559 vs 1430).
H2H favours Arouca: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 9.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Arouca	Nacional
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 0.8	1.2 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.5	0.5 / 1.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 3.3	2 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.1 / 0.4	4 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.80

X3.60

24.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.82

2 (+0.5)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.85

Under 2.52.00

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 13:33

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.80 → 1.80	Bet365 1.80
X	3.60 → 3.60	Pinn 3.80
2	4.20 → 4.10▼	Pinn 4.45 ★

See the full journey (4)

Bet365 margin 7.7% Pinnacle margin 5.3%

Time*	1	X	2
17:24 +4’	1.80	3.60	4.20
23:14 +6’	1.83▲	3.60	4.10▼
12:24 +5’	1.80▼	3.40▼	4.50▲
13:29 +4’	1.80	3.60▲	4.10▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
20:12 +250’	1.84	3.72	4.17
08:14 +3’	1.77▼	3.79▲	4.40▲
12:14 +15’	1.78▲	3.77▼	4.41▲
17:30 +4’	1.77▼	3.80▲	4.45▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Arouca 4–1–1 Nacional

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/02/26 Portugal Primeira Liga	Arouca	3-0 HT 0-0	Nacional
20/09/25 Portugal Primeira Liga	Nacional	1-2 HT 0-0	Arouca
01/02/25 Portugal Primeira Liga	Nacional	1-2 HT 1-2	Arouca
25/08/24 Portugal Primeira Liga	Arouca	1-0 HT 1-0	Nacional
06/05/18 Portugal Segunda Liga	Arouca	0-1 HT 0-1	Nacional
22/12/17 Portugal Segunda Liga	Nacional	2-2 HT 0-2	Arouca

Standings · Portugal Primeira Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Porto	9	9	0	0	21	4	27
2	Benfica	9	7	1	1	26	8	22
3	Sporting	9	5	3	1	21	11	18
4	Santa Clara	9	5	3	1	13	6	18
5	Arouca	9	5	2	2	12	7	17
6	Academico Viseu	9	5	2	2	13	11	17
7	Gil Vicente	9	4	2	3	8	7	14
8	Alverca	9	3	2	4	13	13	11
9	Braga	9	3	2	4	9	11	11
10	Moreirense	9	3	2	4	11	16	11
11	Famalicao	9	2	4	3	14	11	10
12	Estrela	9	2	4	3	14	17	10
13	Guimaraes	9	2	2	5	10	10	8
14	Maritimo	9	2	2	5	9	19	8
15	Nacional	9	2	1	6	10	18	7
16	Casa Pia	9	2	1	6	5	17	7
17	Rio Ave	9	2	1	6	8	21	7
18	Estoril	9	0	2	7	5	15	2

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Arouca	Nacional
Alverca	1-0 W	1-3 L
Estrela	1-0 W	2-3 L
Sporting	2-2 D	0-2 L
Santa Clara	1-2 L	2-2 D
Estoril	0-0 D	2-0 W
Guimaraes	1-0 W	0-1 L
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 1 L	1 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Arouca (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Arouca

WWWLWDLDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Alverca Portugal Primeira Liga	1-0	1-0	3	4	W
11/10	Estrela Portugal Primeira Liga	1-0	1-0	5	7	W
19/09	Sporting Portugal Primeira Liga	0-2	2-2	2	9	D
13/09	Santa Clara Portugal Primeira Liga	0-2	1-2	5	8	L
07/09	Estoril Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	0-0	2	5	D
29/08	Maritimo Portugal Primeira Liga	1-1	2-1	2	3	W
23/08	FC Porto Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	0-2	2	1	L
16/08	Moreirense Portugal Primeira Liga	3-0	4-0	5	7	W
08/08	Guimaraes Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	1-0	2	7	W
16/05	Tondela Portugal Primeira Liga	1-0	3-1	5	4	W

Nacional

WDWLLLLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	Braga Portugal Primeira Liga	1-0	1-0	4	4	W
11/10	Rio Ave Portugal Primeira Liga	1-1	2-3	8	4	L
19/09	Famalicao Portugal Primeira Liga	0-3	0-4	7	6	L
12/09	Alverca Portugal Primeira Liga	0-3	1-3	2	3	L
05/09	Sporting Portugal Primeira Liga	0-1	0-2	0	3	L
30/08	Estrela Portugal Primeira Liga	1-1	2-3	4	3	L
23/08	Guimaraes Portugal Primeira Liga	0-1	0-1	3	3	L
16/08	Estoril Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	2-0	7	6	W
10/08	Santa Clara Portugal Primeira Liga	2-2	2-2	4	4	D
16/05	Guimaraes Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	2-0	2	7	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Arouca vs Nacional?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Arouca win (52%). Probabilities: Arouca 52%, draw 26%, Nacional 23%.

How many goals are expected in Arouca vs Nacional?

The model expects 2.9 goals (Arouca 1.78 · Nacional 1.12), with a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Arouca vs Nacional?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.