Football · Portugal Primeira Liga · 01/11, 21:30
Prediction: Braga vs Famalicao
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.56Total
Braga1.64
Famalicao0.92
1X2
Braga
Draw
Famalicao
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Braga
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Famalicao
3-4-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Braga
2–3–1
Famalicao
(6 last)
- Braga2-2Famalicao
- Famalicao1-2Braga
- Famalicao1-1Braga
- Braga3-3Famalicao
- Famalicao1-2Braga
- Braga1-2Famalicao
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Braga 1491 · Famalicao 1486
| Braga | Draw | Famalicao | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 53% | 27% | 20% |
| Market | 54% | 26% | 21% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.56 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Braga: 2-3-1.
- Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Braga | Famalicao | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 1.3 | 1.5 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.5 | 0.7 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/60/20% | 30/60/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.3 / 4.6 | 3.1 / 5.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.7 / 0.2 | 4.1 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Braga 2–3–1 Famalicao
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19/04/26 Portugal Primeira Liga | Braga | 2-2 HT 1-1 | Famalicao |
| 06/12/25 Portugal Primeira Liga | Famalicao | 1-2 HT 1-1 | Braga |
| 25/04/25 Portugal Primeira Liga | Famalicao | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Braga |
| 16/12/24 Portugal Primeira Liga | Braga | 3-3 HT 0-1 | Famalicao |
| 18/01/24 Portugal Primeira Liga | Famalicao | 1-2 HT 0-0 | Braga |
| 11/08/23 Portugal Primeira Liga | Braga | 1-2 HT 1-0 | Famalicao |
Standings · Portugal Primeira Liga
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 4 | 27 |
| 2 | Benfica | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 26 | 8 | 22 |
| 3 | Sporting | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 21 | 11 | 18 |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 6 | 18 |
| 5 | Arouca | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 7 | 17 |
| 6 | Academico Viseu | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 11 | 17 |
| 7 | Gil Vicente | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 7 | 14 |
| 8 | Alverca | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 13 | 11 |
| 9 | Braga | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 11 | 11 |
| 10 | Moreirense | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 16 | 11 |
| 11 | Famalicao | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 14 | 11 | 10 |
| 12 | Estrela | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 14 | 17 | 10 |
| 13 | Guimaraes | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 10 | 10 | 8 |
| 14 | Maritimo | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 19 | 8 |
| 15 | Nacional | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 10 | 18 | 7 |
| 16 | Casa Pia | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 17 | 7 |
| 17 | Rio Ave | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 8 | 21 | 7 |
| 18 | Estoril | 9 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 15 | 2 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Braga | Famalicao |
|---|---|---|
| Nacional | 0-1 L | 4-0 W |
| Gil Vicente | 1-2 L | 0-0 D |
| Sporting | 1-3 L | 1-1 D |
| Santa Clara | 0-0 D | 0-1 L |
| Estoril | 1-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Estrela | 1-2 L | 2-2 D |
| Alverca | 2-1 W | 1-4 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 4 L | 1 W 4 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Famalicao (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Braga
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/10 | Nacional Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 19/10 | Gil Vicente Portugal Primeira Liga |
1-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 09/10 | Sporting Portugal Primeira Liga |
1-0 | 1-3 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 20/09 | Santa Clara Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 7 | D |
| 14/09 | Estoril Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 10/09 | Estrela Portugal Primeira Liga |
1-1 | 1-2 | 9 | 3 | L |
| 05/09 | Alverca Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 31/08 | Guimaraes Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 09/08 | Moreirense Portugal Primeira Liga |
1-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 6 | D |
| 16/05 | Estrela Portugal Primeira Liga |
1-1 | 2-2 | 7 | 6 | D |
Famalicao
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/10 | Rio Ave Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-0 | 4-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 12/10 | Alverca Portugal Primeira Liga |
1-1 | 1-4 | 8 | 5 | L |
| 19/09 | Nacional Portugal Primeira Liga |
3-0 | 4-0 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 13/09 | Sporting Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 05/09 | Estrela Portugal Primeira Liga |
1-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 30/08 | Gil Vicente Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 6 | D |
| 23/08 | Santa Clara Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-1 | 0-1 | 9 | 4 | L |
| 16/08 | Maritimo Portugal Primeira Liga |
1-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 07/08 | Estoril Portugal Primeira Liga |
1-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 3 | D |
| 16/05 | Alverca Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Braga vs Famalicao?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Braga win (53%). Probabilities: Braga 53%, draw 26%, Famalicao 20%.
How many goals are expected in Braga vs Famalicao?
The model expects 2.56 goals (Braga 1.64 · Famalicao 0.92), with a 54% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Braga vs Famalicao?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.