Prediction: Benfica vs Alverca
- Benfica2-1Alverca
- Alverca1-2Benfica
| Benfica | Draw | Alverca | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 79% | 15% | 7% |
| Market | 80% | 12% | 7% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Benfica (rating 1648 vs 1485).
- H2H favours Benfica: 2-0-0.
- High corners: 12 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 9.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Benfica | Alverca | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.9 / 0.9 | 1.3 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.1 / 0.3 | 0.6 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 70/10/20% | 30/40/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 4.4 / 7.4 | 2 / 4.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.3 / 0.2 | 4.1 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Benfica 2–0–0 Alverca
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/02/26 Portugal Primeira Liga | Benfica | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Alverca |
| 31/08/25 Portugal Primeira Liga | Alverca | 1-2 HT 0-2 | Benfica |
Standings · Portugal Primeira Liga
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 4 | 27 |
| 2 | Benfica | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 26 | 8 | 22 |
| 3 | Sporting | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 21 | 11 | 18 |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 6 | 18 |
| 5 | Arouca | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 7 | 17 |
| 6 | Academico Viseu | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 11 | 17 |
| 7 | Gil Vicente | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 7 | 14 |
| 8 | Alverca | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 13 | 11 |
| 9 | Braga | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 11 | 11 |
| 10 | Moreirense | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 16 | 11 |
| 11 | Famalicao | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 14 | 11 | 10 |
| 12 | Estrela | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 14 | 17 | 10 |
| 13 | Guimaraes | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 10 | 10 | 8 |
| 14 | Maritimo | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 19 | 8 |
| 15 | Nacional | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 10 | 18 | 7 |
| 16 | Casa Pia | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 17 | 7 |
| 17 | Rio Ave | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 8 | 21 | 7 |
| 18 | Estoril | 9 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 15 | 2 |
Common opponents 2 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Benfica | Alverca |
|---|---|---|
| Santa Clara | 2-1 W | 1-1 D |
| FC Porto | 1-3 L | 0-2 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 0 D 1 L | 0 W 1 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Benfica (1 of 2 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Benfica
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/10 | Santa Clara Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 9 | W |
| 11/10 | Guimaraes Portugal Primeira Liga |
1-0 | 2-0 | 11 | 7 | W |
| 20/09 | FC Porto Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-1 | 1-3 | 3 | 8 | L |
| 13/09 | Gil Vicente Portugal Primeira Liga |
1-1 | 3-1 | 14 | 5 | W |
| 09/09 | Moreirense Portugal Primeira Liga |
1-0 | 4-0 | 7 | 6 | W |
| 05/09 | Maritimo Portugal Primeira Liga |
1-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 31/08 | Estoril Portugal Primeira Liga |
1-0 | 2-1 | 9 | 1 | W |
| 17/08 | Casa Pia Portugal Primeira Liga |
2-0 | 7-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 09/08 | Academico Viseu Portugal Primeira Liga |
1-0 | 2-2 | 10 | 6 | D |
| 16/05 | Estoril Portugal Primeira Liga |
3-0 | 3-1 | 9 | 5 | W |
Alverca
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/10 | Arouca Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 12/10 | Famalicao Portugal Primeira Liga |
1-1 | 4-1 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 19/09 | Rio Ave Portugal Primeira Liga |
1-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 4 | W |
| 12/09 | Nacional Portugal Primeira Liga |
3-0 | 3-1 | 0 | 3 | W |
| 05/09 | Braga Portugal Primeira Liga |
1-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 29/08 | Santa Clara Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-0 | 1-1 | 10 | 3 | D |
| 22/08 | Sporting Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-1 | 1-3 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 15/08 | Estrela Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 7 | D |
| 09/08 | FC Porto Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-2 | 0-2 | 9 | 4 | L |
| 16/05 | Famalicao Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 3 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Benfica vs Alverca?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Benfica win (80%). Probabilities: Benfica 80%, draw 13%, Alverca 7%.
How many goals are expected in Benfica vs Alverca?
The model expects 3.4 goals (Benfica 2.7 · Alverca 0.7), with a 52% chance of over 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Benfica vs Alverca?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.