Football · Portugal Primeira Liga · 31/10, 16:30

Prediction: Moreirense vs Estrela

Team pages: Moreirense · Estrela

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.8Total

Moreirense1.32

Estrela1.48

1X2

32% 28% 39%

Moreirense Draw Estrela

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Moreirense 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DDLWLLWDLW

Estrela 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

DDDWDWDLLL

Head-to-head

Moreirense 2–3–1 Estrela (6 last)

Moreirense3-2Estrela
Estrela0-0Moreirense
Moreirense1-1Estrela
Estrela2-1Moreirense
Moreirense2-2Estrela
Estrela0-1Moreirense

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Moreirense 1485 · Estrela 1482

	Moreirense	Draw	Estrela
Our model	33%	28%	40%
Market	32%	29%	39%

Estimated total (ours) 2.8 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Moreirense: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Moreirense	Estrela
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.6	1.6 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.6	0.4 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	0/60/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 2.7	2.1 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0.1	4.5 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.90

X3.25

22.38

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.77

2 (-0.25)2.10

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.00

Under 2.51.85

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 17:29

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.80 → 2.90▲	Pinn 2.97
X	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
2	2.45 → 2.38▼	Pinn 2.49 ★

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 7.4% Pinnacle margin 4.6%

Time*	1	X	2
18:18 +4’	2.80	3.25	2.45
23:13 +2’	3.00▲	3.25	2.35▼
17:21 +8’	2.90▼	3.25	2.38▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
16:53 +18’	3.05	3.25	2.36
17:46 +64’	3.05	3.28▲	2.40▲
10:09 +3’	2.95▼	3.26▼	2.47▲
11:08 +6’	3.02▲	3.25▼	2.43▼
08:10 +3’	2.97▼	3.23▼	2.48▲
17:29	2.97	3.26▲	2.46▼
22:55	2.96▼	3.24▼	2.48▲
16:40 +35’	2.97▲	3.25▲	2.49▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Moreirense 2–3–1 Estrela

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
02/05/26 Portugal Primeira Liga	Moreirense	3-2 HT 1-2	Estrela
20/12/25 Portugal Primeira Liga	Estrela	0-0 HT 0-0	Moreirense
02/03/25 Portugal Primeira Liga	Moreirense	1-1 HT 0-0	Estrela
28/09/24 Portugal Primeira Liga	Estrela	2-1 HT 2-0	Moreirense
07/04/24 Portugal Primeira Liga	Moreirense	2-2 HT 2-0	Estrela
11/11/23 Portugal Primeira Liga	Estrela	0-1 HT 0-0	Moreirense

Standings · Portugal Primeira Liga

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Porto	9	9	0	0	21	4	27
2	Benfica	9	7	1	1	26	8	22
3	Sporting	9	5	3	1	21	11	18
4	Santa Clara	9	5	3	1	13	6	18
5	Arouca	9	5	2	2	12	7	17
6	Academico Viseu	9	5	2	2	13	11	17
7	Gil Vicente	9	4	2	3	8	7	14
8	Alverca	9	3	2	4	13	13	11
9	Braga	9	3	2	4	9	11	11
10	Moreirense	9	3	2	4	11	16	11
11	Famalicao	9	2	4	3	14	11	10
12	Estrela	9	2	4	3	14	17	10
13	Guimaraes	9	2	2	5	10	10	8
14	Maritimo	9	2	2	5	9	19	8
15	Nacional	9	2	1	6	10	18	7
16	Casa Pia	9	2	1	6	5	17	7
17	Rio Ave	9	2	1	6	8	21	7
18	Estoril	9	0	2	7	5	15	2

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Moreirense	Estrela
Casa Pia	1-0 W	0-2 L
Arouca	0-4 L	0-1 L
Braga	2-2 D	2-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Estrela (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Moreirense

DDLWLLWDLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	Estoril Portugal Primeira Liga	3-0	3-1	3	4	W
09/10	Gil Vicente Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	0-1	4	7	L
20/09	Guimaraes Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	1-1	0	0	D
14/09	Maritimo Portugal Primeira Liga	2-0	3-1	3	4	W
09/09	Benfica Portugal Primeira Liga	0-1	0-4	3	6	L
04/09	FC Porto Portugal Primeira Liga	1-1	1-2	1	4	L
30/08	Casa Pia Portugal Primeira Liga	1-0	1-0	1	3	W
16/08	Arouca Portugal Primeira Liga	0-3	0-4	3	7	L
09/08	Braga Portugal Primeira Liga	1-1	2-2	4	6	D
16/05	AVS Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	0-0	5	5	D

Estrela

DDDWDWDLLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Casa Pia Portugal Primeira Liga	0-1	0-2	7	3	L
11/10	Arouca Portugal Primeira Liga	0-1	0-1	6	7	L
20/09	Academico Viseu Portugal Primeira Liga	0-2	0-2	5	5	L
14/09	Rio Ave Portugal Primeira Liga	1-1	3-3	5	5	D
10/09	Braga Portugal Primeira Liga	1-1	2-1	5	3	W
05/09	Famalicao Portugal Primeira Liga	0-1	2-2	5	4	D
30/08	Nacional Portugal Primeira Liga	1-1	3-2	3	3	W
15/08	Alverca Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	2-2	0	7	D
08/08	Sporting Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	2-2	5	4	D
16/05	Braga Portugal Primeira Liga	1-1	2-2	1	6	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Moreirense vs Estrela?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Estrela win (39%). Probabilities: Moreirense 32%, draw 28%, Estrela 39%.

How many goals are expected in Moreirense vs Estrela?

The model expects 2.8 goals (Moreirense 1.32 · Estrela 1.48), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Moreirense vs Estrela?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.