Football · Portugal Primeira Liga · 02/11, 21:15

Prediction: Gil Vicente vs Guimaraes

Team pages: Gil Vicente · Guimaraes

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.87Total

Gil Vicente0.97

Guimaraes0.9

1X2

36% 31% 33%

Gil Vicente Draw Guimaraes

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 57% Not both to score 53%

Most likely score

0-0 17%

Recent form · 10 last

Gil Vicente 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LWWDLLDWWL

Guimaraes 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LLLWLDLDLW

Head-to-head

Gil Vicente 1–1–4 Guimaraes (6 last)

Gil Vicente0-1Guimaraes
Guimaraes0-0Gil Vicente
Gil Vicente0-1Guimaraes
Guimaraes4-0Gil Vicente
Guimaraes3-1Gil Vicente
Gil Vicente1-0Guimaraes

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Gil Vicente 1494 · Guimaraes 1505

	Gil Vicente	Draw	Guimaraes
Our model	34%	35%	31%
Market	37%	29%	34%

Estimated total (ours) 1.87 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · -0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 71%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Guimaraes: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 9.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Gil Vicente	Guimaraes
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 1	1 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.5	0.2 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.2 / 3	2.6 / 5.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.2	5.4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.50

X3.25

22.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.82

2 (0)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.93

Under 2.251.93

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 04:23

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.50 → 2.80▲	Pinn 2.87
X	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
2	2.75 → 2.50▼	Pinn 2.61 ★

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 6.5% Pinnacle margin 4.9%

Time*	1	X	2
00:22 +6’	2.50	3.25	2.75
23:55 +27’	2.63▲	3.20▼	2.63▼
04:18 +5’	2.80▲	3.25▲	2.50▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:27	2.76	3.10	2.75
09:08 +10’	2.72▼	3.11▲	2.78▲
04:07 +16’	2.89▲	3.11	2.62▼
09:25 +1’	2.87▼	3.15▲	2.61▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Gil Vicente 1–1–4 Guimaraes

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/04/26 Portugal Primeira Liga	Gil Vicente	0-1 HT 0-0	Guimaraes
08/12/25 Portugal Primeira Liga	Guimaraes	0-0 HT 0-0	Gil Vicente
11/04/25 Portugal Primeira Liga	Gil Vicente	0-1 HT 0-0	Guimaraes
02/12/24 Portugal Primeira Liga	Guimaraes	4-0 HT 1-0	Gil Vicente
08/02/24 Portugal Cup	Guimaraes	3-1 HT 3-1	Gil Vicente
28/01/24 Portugal Primeira Liga	Gil Vicente	1-0 HT 0-0	Guimaraes

Standings · Portugal Primeira Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Porto	9	9	0	0	21	4	27
2	Benfica	9	7	1	1	26	8	22
3	Sporting	9	5	3	1	21	11	18
4	Santa Clara	9	5	3	1	13	6	18
5	Arouca	9	5	2	2	12	7	17
6	Academico Viseu	9	5	2	2	13	11	17
7	Gil Vicente	9	4	2	3	8	7	14
8	Alverca	9	3	2	4	13	13	11
9	Braga	9	3	2	4	9	11	11
10	Moreirense	9	3	2	4	11	16	11
11	Famalicao	9	2	4	3	14	11	10
12	Estrela	9	2	4	3	14	17	10
13	Guimaraes	9	2	2	5	10	10	8
14	Maritimo	9	2	2	5	9	19	8
15	Nacional	9	2	1	6	10	18	7
16	Casa Pia	9	2	1	6	5	17	7
17	Rio Ave	9	2	1	6	8	21	7
18	Estoril	9	0	2	7	5	15	2

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Gil Vicente	Guimaraes
Braga	2-1 W	0-1 L
Moreirense	1-0 W	1-1 D
Maritimo	1-1 D	5-0 W
Benfica	1-3 L	0-2 L
Academico Viseu	0-1 L	1-2 L
Casa Pia	2-0 W	0-0 D
Sporting	0-3 L	2-3 L
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 3 L	1 W 2 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Gil Vicente (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Gil Vicente

LWWDLLDWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	FC Porto Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	0-1	3	2	L
19/10	Braga Portugal Primeira Liga	0-1	2-1	1	6	W
09/10	Moreirense Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	1-0	3	7	W
19/09	Maritimo Portugal Primeira Liga	1-0	1-1	4	2	D
13/09	Benfica Portugal Primeira Liga	1-1	1-3	0	5	L
06/09	Academico Viseu Portugal Primeira Liga	0-1	0-1	7	2	L
30/08	Famalicao Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	0-0	3	6	D
24/08	Casa Pia Portugal Primeira Liga	2-0	2-0	3	2	W
09/08	Rio Ave Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	1-0	5	6	W
16/05	Sporting Portugal Primeira Liga	0-2	0-3	1	1	L

Guimaraes

LLLWLDLDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/10	Maritimo Portugal Primeira Liga	1-0	5-0	6	7	W
11/10	Benfica Portugal Primeira Liga	0-1	0-2	6	7	L
20/09	Moreirense Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	1-1	3	0	D
12/09	Academico Viseu Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	1-2	8	8	L
06/09	Casa Pia Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	0-0	17	4	D
31/08	Braga Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	0-1	2	5	L
23/08	Nacional Portugal Primeira Liga	1-0	1-0	4	3	W
14/08	Sporting Portugal Primeira Liga	0-3	2-3	1	8	L
08/08	Arouca Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	0-1	5	7	L
16/05	Nacional Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	0-2	6	7	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Gil Vicente vs Guimaraes?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Gil Vicente win (36%). Probabilities: Gil Vicente 36%, draw 31%, Guimaraes 33%.

How many goals are expected in Gil Vicente vs Guimaraes?

The model expects 1.87 goals (Gil Vicente 0.97 · Guimaraes 0.9), with a 57% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Gil Vicente vs Guimaraes?

The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.