Football · USA MLS Next Pro League · 19/10, 01:00
Prediction: Crown Legacy vs New York Red Bulls II
Team pages: Crown Legacy · New York Red Bulls II
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.89Total
Crown Legacy2.05
New York Red Bulls II1.84
1X2
Crown Legacy
Draw
New York Red Bulls II
Markets
Over 3.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 61%
Most likely score
1-1 8%
Recent form · 10 last
Crown Legacy
6-2-2 (W-D-L)
New York Red Bulls II
5-1-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Crown Legacy
3–2–1
New York Red Bulls II
(6 last)
- New York Red Bulls II0-3Crown Legacy
- Crown Legacy2-5New York Red Bulls II
- New York Red Bulls II1-4Crown Legacy
- Crown Legacy1-1New York Red Bulls II
- Crown Legacy1-1New York Red Bulls II
- New York Red Bulls II1-3Crown Legacy
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Crown Legacy 1555 · New York Red Bulls II 1507
| Crown Legacy | Draw | New York Red Bulls II | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 43% | 22% | 35% |
| Market | 43% | 23% | 34% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.89 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Crown Legacy (rating 1555 vs 1507).
- H2H favours Crown Legacy: 3-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 9.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Crown Legacy | New York Red Bulls II | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.3 / 1.2 | 2.1 / 2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 0.4 | 0.9 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/40/10% | 40/30/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.7 / 5.3 | 1.8 / 5.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.7 / 0.2 | 4.5 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Crown Legacy 3–2–1 New York Red Bulls II
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/07/26 USA MLS Next Pro League | New York Red Bulls II | 0-3 HT 0-0 | Crown Legacy |
| 05/06/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | Crown Legacy | 2-5 HT 2-2 | New York Red Bulls II |
| 26/08/24 USA MLS Next Pro League | New York Red Bulls II | 1-4 HT 1-0 | Crown Legacy |
| 10/09/23 USA MLS Next Pro League | Crown Legacy | 1-1 HT 0-0 | New York Red Bulls II |
| 18/06/23 USA MLS Next Pro League | Crown Legacy | 1-1 HT 0-0 | New York Red Bulls II |
| 10/04/23 USA MLS Next Pro League | New York Red Bulls II | 1-3 HT 1-0 | Crown Legacy |
Standings · USA MLS Next Pro League · MLS Next Pro 2026, Eastern Conference
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Crown Legacy | 28 | 15 | 8 | 5 | 67 | 39 | 58 |
| 2 | Chattanooga FC | 28 | 15 | 7 | 6 | 56 | 39 | 56 |
| 3 | Atlanta United II | 28 | 14 | 5 | 9 | 62 | 46 | 48 |
| 4 | Columbus Crew II | 28 | 12 | 7 | 9 | 49 | 43 | 48 |
| 5 | New England Revolution II | 28 | 12 | 8 | 8 | 47 | 42 | 48 |
| 6 | New York City FC II | 28 | 13 | 5 | 10 | 50 | 44 | 47 |
| 7 | CT United | 28 | 14 | 2 | 12 | 59 | 52 | 46 |
| 8 | New York Red Bulls II | 28 | 13 | 5 | 10 | 58 | 48 | 46 |
| 9 | Huntsville City | 28 | 12 | 6 | 10 | 49 | 47 | 44 |
| 10 | Orlando City II | 28 | 11 | 7 | 10 | 55 | 56 | 44 |
| 11 | Philadelphia Union II | 28 | 12 | 5 | 11 | 37 | 40 | 43 |
| 12 | Toronto FC II | 28 | 11 | 4 | 13 | 48 | 56 | 39 |
| 13 | Chicago Fire II | 28 | 10 | 6 | 12 | 50 | 48 | 39 |
| 14 | Carolina Core FC | 28 | 5 | 11 | 12 | 40 | 53 | 31 |
| 15 | FC Cincinnati II | 28 | 5 | 3 | 20 | 32 | 62 | 20 |
| 16 | Inter Miami CF II | 28 | 3 | 5 | 20 | 30 | 74 | 15 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Crown Legacy | New York Red Bulls II |
|---|---|---|
| FC Cincinnati II | 2-1 W | 1-1 D |
| CT United | 0-2 L | 4-2 W |
| Huntsville City | 2-2 D | 3-1 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 1 L | 2 W 1 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: New York Red Bulls II (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Crown Legacy
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/09 | FC Cincinnati II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 13/09 | Carolina Core FC USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-0 | 2-2 | 12 | 4 | D |
| 04/09 | Chicago Fire II USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-0 | 4-0 | 1 | 7 | W |
| 31/08 | Orlando City II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 2-3 | 7 | 2 | L |
| 24/08 | Chattanooga FC USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 3-1 | 1 | 7 | W |
| 20/08 | CT United USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 13/08 | Huntsville City USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 8 | D |
| 08/08 | Inter Miami CF II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 02/08 | Huntsville City USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 3-1 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 25/07 | New York Red Bulls II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
New York Red Bulls II
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10 | Huntsville City USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-1 | 3-1 | 1 | 5 | W |
| 20/09 | Huntsville City USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 1-2 | 9 | 6 | L |
| 14/09 | FC Cincinnati II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 8 | 4 | D |
| 08/09 | New York City FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 2-4 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 30/08 | CT United USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 4-2 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 24/08 | Toronto FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-1 | 5-1 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 14/08 | Atlanta United II USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 09/08 | Columbus Crew II USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 02/08 | New England Revolution II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-2 | 1-4 | 6 | 8 | L |
| 25/07 | Crown Legacy USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 0-3 | 6 | 3 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Crown Legacy vs New York Red Bulls II?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Crown Legacy win (43%). Probabilities: Crown Legacy 43%, draw 23%, New York Red Bulls II 34%.
How many goals are expected in Crown Legacy vs New York Red Bulls II?
The model expects 3.89 goals (Crown Legacy 2.05 · New York Red Bulls II 1.84), with a 53% chance of over 3.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Crown Legacy vs New York Red Bulls II?
The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.