Football · Chile Liga de Primera · 24/10, 17:30
Prediction: La Serena vs Deportes Concepcion
Team pages: La Serena · Deportes Concepcion
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.75Total
La Serena1.49
Deportes Concepcion1.26
1X2
La Serena
Draw
Deportes Concepcion
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 50%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
La Serena
3-4-3 (W-D-L)
Deportes Concepcion
6-3-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
La Serena
1–2–2
Deportes Concepcion
(5 last)
- Deportes Concepcion3-3La Serena
- Deportes Concepcion4-0La Serena
- La Serena3-2Deportes Concepcion
- Deportes Concepcion4-2La Serena
- La Serena0-0Deportes Concepcion
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · La Serena 1491 · Deportes Concepcion 1543
| La Serena | Draw | Deportes Concepcion | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 41% | 28% | 31% |
| Market | 41% | 28% | 31% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.75 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Deportes Concepcion (rating 1491 vs 1543).
- H2H favours Deportes Concepcion: 2-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 9.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| La Serena | Deportes Concepcion | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 1.7 | 1.5 / 0.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.5 | 0.8 / 0.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/60/10% | 70/10/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.8 / 3.5 | 1.9 / 4.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.7 / 0.3 | 4.9 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · La Serena 1–2–2 Deportes Concepcion
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19/04/26 Chile Liga de Primera | Deportes Concepcion | 3-3 HT 1-3 | La Serena |
| 23/04/16 Chile Primera B | Deportes Concepcion | 4-0 HT 1-0 | La Serena |
| 22/11/15 Chile Primera B | La Serena | 3-2 HT 1-0 | Deportes Concepcion |
| 10/05/15 Chile Primera B | Deportes Concepcion | 4-2 HT 2-0 | La Serena |
| 13/12/14 Chile Primera B | La Serena | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Deportes Concepcion |
Standings · Chile Liga de Primera
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Colo Colo | 24 | 17 | 3 | 4 | 50 | 27 | 54 |
| 2 | Universidad de Chile | 24 | 13 | 6 | 5 | 41 | 19 | 45 |
| 3 | Universidad Catolica | 23 | 13 | 3 | 7 | 50 | 33 | 42 |
| 4 | Everton de Vina | 24 | 11 | 6 | 7 | 40 | 27 | 39 |
| 5 | Palestino | 24 | 11 | 4 | 9 | 38 | 35 | 37 |
| 6 | Deportes Limache | 24 | 10 | 4 | 10 | 45 | 37 | 34 |
| 7 | Huachipato | 24 | 10 | 4 | 10 | 34 | 39 | 34 |
| 8 | Coquimbo Unido | 24 | 9 | 5 | 10 | 36 | 34 | 32 |
| 9 | Deportes Concepcion | 24 | 9 | 5 | 10 | 26 | 27 | 32 |
| 10 | Nublense | 24 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 28 | 37 | 32 |
| 11 | La Serena | 24 | 7 | 9 | 8 | 36 | 41 | 30 |
| 12 | Audax Italiano | 23 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 26 | 31 | 28 |
| 13 | O'Higgins | 24 | 8 | 3 | 13 | 28 | 38 | 27 |
| 14 | Cobresal | 24 | 7 | 4 | 13 | 35 | 45 | 25 |
| 15 | Universidad de Concepcion | 24 | 6 | 5 | 13 | 18 | 40 | 23 |
| 16 | Union La Calera | 24 | 4 | 6 | 14 | 20 | 41 | 18 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | La Serena | Deportes Concepcion |
|---|---|---|
| Nublense | 2-1 W | 1-0 W |
| Union La Calera | 1-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Cobresal | 3-3 D | 2-0 W |
| Universidad de Concepcion | 2-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Coquimbo Unido | 1-1 D | 1-1 D |
| O'Higgins | 1-2 L | 2-0 W |
| Universidad Catolica | 3-3 D | 3-0 W |
| Audax Italiano | 1-1 D | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 3 W 4 D 1 L | 5 W 2 D 1 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
La Serena
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10 | Everton de Vina Chile Liga de Primera |
1-1 | 2-3 | 1 | 8 | L |
| 13/09 | Universidad de Chile Chile Liga de Primera |
0-0 | 0-3 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 06/09 | Nublense Chile Liga de Primera |
1-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 8 | W |
| 01/09 | Union La Calera Chile Liga de Primera |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 23/08 | Cobresal Chile Liga de Primera |
1-1 | 3-3 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 15/08 | Universidad de Concepcion Chile Liga de Primera |
1-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 08/08 | Coquimbo Unido Chile Liga de Primera |
0-0 | 1-1 | 0 | 8 | D |
| 02/08 | O'Higgins Chile Liga de Primera |
1-0 | 1-2 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 26/07 | Universidad Catolica Chile Liga de Primera |
0-2 | 3-3 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 13/06 | Audax Italiano Chile Liga de Primera |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 4 | D |
Deportes Concepcion
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10 | Union La Calera Chile Liga de Primera |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 13/09 | Colo Colo Chile Liga de Primera |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 05/09 | Audax Italiano Chile Liga de Primera |
0-1 | 0-1 | 9 | 5 | L |
| 30/08 | Nublense Chile Liga de Primera |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 23/08 | Coquimbo Unido Chile Liga de Primera |
0-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 7 | D |
| 16/08 | Cobresal Chile Liga de Primera |
1-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 09/08 | Universidad de Concepcion Chile Liga de Primera |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 8 | W |
| 02/08 | Universidad Catolica Chile Liga de Primera |
2-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 27/07 | O'Higgins Chile Liga de Primera |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 14/06 | Deportes Limache Chile Liga de Primera |
1-0 | 3-2 | 7 | 1 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in La Serena vs Deportes Concepcion?
According to our model, the most likely result is a La Serena win (41%). Probabilities: La Serena 41%, draw 28%, Deportes Concepcion 31%.
How many goals are expected in La Serena vs Deportes Concepcion?
The model expects 2.75 goals (La Serena 1.49 · Deportes Concepcion 1.26), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in La Serena vs Deportes Concepcion?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.