Football · Scotland Premiership · 25/10, 13:00

Prediction: Hibernian vs Celtic

Team pages: Hibernian · Celtic

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.89Total

Hibernian1.05

Celtic1.84

1X2

21% 23% 56%

Hibernian Draw Celtic

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Hibernian 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

LLWWLLLDLL

Celtic 9-0-1 (W-D-L)

WWWWWWWLWW

Head-to-head

Hibernian 1–1–4 Celtic (6 last)

Hibernian1-2Celtic
Celtic1-2Hibernian
Hibernian1-2Celtic
Celtic0-0Hibernian
Celtic3-1Hibernian
Celtic2-0Hibernian

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Hibernian 1460 · Celtic 1558

	Hibernian	Draw	Celtic
Our model	20%	25%	55%
Market	22%	22%	56%

Estimated total (ours) 2.89 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Celtic (rating 1460 vs 1558).
H2H favours Celtic: 4-1-1.
High corners: 15.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Hibernian	Celtic
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.5	2.6 / 0.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 1.1	1.5 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/0/80%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 6.8	4.6 / 9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.4	3.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

14.33

X4.20

21.67

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)2.00

2 (-0.75)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 31.90

Under 31.95

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 08:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.20 → 4.33▲	Bet365 4.33
X	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
2	1.65 → 1.67▲	Bet365 1.67

See the full journey (4)

Bet365 margin 6.9%

Time*	1	X	2
00:15 +3’	4.20	4.20	1.65
07:09 +1’	3.80▼	4.10▼	1.73▲
04:09 +12’	4.00▲	4.20▲	1.67▼
08:10 +5’	4.33▲	4.20	1.67

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Hibernian 1–1–4 Celtic

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/05/26 Scotland Premiership	Hibernian	1-2 HT 1-1	Celtic
22/02/26 Scotland Premiership	Celtic	1-2 HT 1-1	Hibernian
30/11/25 Scotland Premiership	Hibernian	1-2 HT 0-2	Celtic
27/09/25 Scotland Premiership	Celtic	0-0 HT 0-0	Hibernian
10/05/25 Scotland Premiership	Celtic	3-1 HT 2-1	Hibernian
09/03/25 Scotland FA Cup	Celtic	2-0 HT 1-0	Hibernian

Standings · Scotland Premiership

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Celtic	9	8	0	1	23	5	24
2	Rangers	9	6	2	1	13	7	20
3	Hearts	9	5	1	3	20	15	16
4	Dundee	9	4	2	3	13	10	14
5	St Johnstone	9	3	3	3	11	11	12
6	Dundee Utd	9	3	3	3	11	12	12
7	Aberdeen	9	3	2	4	10	10	11
8	St Mirren	9	3	1	5	9	17	10
9	Falkirk	9	2	3	4	9	12	9
10	Motherwell	9	2	2	5	11	16	8
11	Kilmarnock	9	2	2	5	10	20	8
12	Hibernian	9	2	1	6	9	14	7

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Hibernian	Celtic
Falkirk	1-2 L	2-1 W
Aberdeen	1-1 D	3-0 W
Kilmarnock	0-1 L	5-1 W
St Johnstone	1-2 L	1-0 W
Hearts	1-3 L	7-1 W
Dundee	2-1 W	1-0 W
Rangers	2-1 W	0-1 L
Motherwell	1-2 L	2-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 5 L	7 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Celtic (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Hibernian

LLWWLLLDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Falkirk Scotland Premiership	1-2	1-2	6	4	L
10/10	Dundee Utd Scotland Premiership	0-1	0-1	3	7	L
19/09	Aberdeen Scotland Premiership	0-1	1-1	6	4	D
15/09	Kilmarnock Scotland Premiership	0-1	0-1	15	3	L
06/09	St Johnstone Scotland Premiership	1-2	1-2	7	1	L
03/09	Hearts Scotland Premiership	0-2	1-3	7	3	L
30/08	Dundee Scotland Premiership	1-0	2-1	5	2	W
09/08	Rangers Scotland Premiership	1-0	2-1	3	2	W
02/08	Motherwell Scotland Premiership	0-1	1-2	9	4	L
16/05	Motherwell Scotland Premiership	0-1	0-1	7	10	L

Celtic

WWWWWWWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Hearts Scotland Premiership	5-1	7-1	6	4	W
11/10	Motherwell Scotland Premiership	1-0	2-0	9	3	W
20/09	Rangers Scotland Premiership	0-1	0-1	8	5	L
09/09	St Johnstone Scotland Premiership	0-0	1-0	11	4	W
05/09	St Mirren Scotland Premiership	0-1	2-1	10	3	W
02/09	Aberdeen Scotland Premiership	3-0	3-0	15	2	W
29/08	Falkirk Scotland Premiership	2-0	2-1	6	5	W
09/08	Kilmarnock Scotland Premiership	3-0	5-1	7	1	W
03/08	Dundee Scotland Premiership	0-0	1-0	9	2	W
16/05	Hearts Scotland Premiership	1-1	3-1	9	9	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Hibernian vs Celtic?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Celtic win (56%). Probabilities: Hibernian 21%, draw 23%, Celtic 56%.

How many goals are expected in Hibernian vs Celtic?

The model expects 2.89 goals (Hibernian 1.05 · Celtic 1.84), with a 53% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Hibernian vs Celtic?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.