Football · Scotland Premiership · 28/10, 20:45

Prediction: Dundee vs Kilmarnock

Team pages: Dundee · Kilmarnock

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.25Total

Dundee1.9

Kilmarnock1.35

1X2

49% 25% 26%

Dundee Draw Kilmarnock

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Dundee 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WLWWLDLWWD

Kilmarnock 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

WLLLLDWDLW

Head-to-head

Dundee 2–2–2 Kilmarnock (6 last)

Kilmarnock3-1Dundee
Kilmarnock2-2Dundee
Kilmarnock1-2Dundee
Dundee2-1Kilmarnock
Kilmarnock0-0Dundee
Kilmarnock3-2Dundee

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Dundee 1530 · Kilmarnock 1456

	Dundee	Draw	Kilmarnock
Our model	49%	24%	26%
Market	49%	26%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 3.25 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Dundee (rating 1530 vs 1456).
Cards-heavy: 6.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Dundee	Kilmarnock
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.2	1.4 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.6	0.6 / 1.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 5.1	2 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0.1	3.4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.90

X3.60

23.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.93

2 (+0.5)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.82

Under 2.752.02

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:27

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.90 → 1.90	Bet365 1.90
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.2%

Time*	1	X	2
00:17 +10’	1.90	3.60	3.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Dundee 2–2–2 Kilmarnock

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/05/26 Scotland Premiership	Kilmarnock	3-1 HT 0-0	Dundee
11/04/26 Scotland Premiership	Kilmarnock	2-2 HT 2-1	Dundee
17/01/26 Scotland FA Cup	Kilmarnock	1-2 HT 1-0	Dundee
30/12/25 Scotland Premiership	Dundee	2-1 HT 0-1	Kilmarnock
23/08/25 Scotland Premiership	Kilmarnock	0-0 HT 0-0	Dundee
10/05/25 Scotland Premiership	Kilmarnock	3-2 HT 1-0	Dundee

Standings · Scotland Premiership

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Celtic	9	8	0	1	23	5	24
2	Rangers	9	6	2	1	13	7	20
3	Hearts	9	5	1	3	20	15	16
4	Dundee	9	4	2	3	13	10	14
5	St Johnstone	9	3	3	3	11	11	12
6	Dundee Utd	9	3	3	3	11	12	12
7	Aberdeen	9	3	2	4	10	10	11
8	St Mirren	9	3	1	5	9	17	10
9	Falkirk	9	2	3	4	9	12	9
10	Motherwell	9	2	2	5	11	16	8
11	Kilmarnock	9	2	2	5	10	20	8
12	Hibernian	9	2	1	6	9	14	7

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Dundee	Kilmarnock
Rangers	2-2 D	1-3 L
Motherwell	2-1 W	3-2 W
Hearts	1-2 L	1-1 D
St Johnstone	1-1 D	3-4 L
Hibernian	1-2 L	1-0 W
Dundee Utd	2-0 W	0-4 L
Aberdeen	2-0 W	0-0 D
Celtic	0-1 L	1-5 L
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 3 L	2 W 2 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Dundee (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Dundee

WLWWLDLWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Rangers Scotland Premiership	1-1	2-2	3	4	D
10/10	Falkirk Scotland Premiership	0-1	2-1	10	0	W
19/09	Motherwell Scotland Premiership	2-1	2-1	9	2	W
06/09	Hearts Scotland Premiership	1-0	1-2	2	6	L
02/09	St Johnstone Scotland Premiership	0-0	1-1	2	2	D
30/08	Hibernian Scotland Premiership	0-1	1-2	3	2	L
22/08	Dundee Utd Scotland Premiership	1-0	2-0	6	7	W
08/08	Aberdeen Scotland Premiership	1-0	2-0	5	4	W
03/08	Celtic Scotland Premiership	0-0	0-1	4	2	L
17/05	Aberdeen Scotland Premiership	1-2	3-2	7	0	W

Kilmarnock

WLLLLDWDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Motherwell Scotland Premiership	1-1	3-2	5	1	W
10/10	Rangers Scotland Premiership	0-3	1-3	3	2	L
19/09	Hearts Scotland Premiership	1-0	1-1	2	4	D
15/09	Hibernian Scotland Premiership	1-0	1-0	7	3	W
05/09	Aberdeen Scotland Premiership	0-0	0-0	7	8	D
02/09	St Mirren Scotland Premiership	0-1	0-1	7	4	L
29/08	Dundee Utd Scotland Premiership	0-3	0-4	3	6	L
09/08	Celtic Scotland Premiership	0-3	1-5	5	1	L
02/08	St Johnstone Scotland Premiership	1-1	3-4	3	4	L
17/05	Livingston Scotland Premiership	2-1	4-1	1	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Dundee vs Kilmarnock?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Dundee win (49%). Probabilities: Dundee 49%, draw 25%, Kilmarnock 26%.

How many goals are expected in Dundee vs Kilmarnock?

The model expects 3.25 goals (Dundee 1.9 · Kilmarnock 1.35), with a 55% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Dundee vs Kilmarnock?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.