Football · Scotland Premiership · 31/10, 16:00

Prediction: Kilmarnock vs St Johnstone

Team pages: Kilmarnock · St Johnstone

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.97Total

Kilmarnock1.41

St Johnstone1.56

1X2

33% 26% 40%

Kilmarnock Draw St Johnstone

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Kilmarnock 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LLLLDWDLWL

St Johnstone 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

WLLDWLDWDL

Head-to-head

Kilmarnock 3–3 St Johnstone (6 last)

St Johnstone4-3Kilmarnock
St Johnstone0-2Kilmarnock
Kilmarnock3-1St Johnstone
St Johnstone1-0Kilmarnock
Kilmarnock0-3St Johnstone
St Johnstone0-2Kilmarnock

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Kilmarnock 1448 · St Johnstone 1492

	Kilmarnock	Draw	St Johnstone
Our model	33%	27%	40%
Market	34%	26%	40%

Estimated total (ours) 2.97 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours St Johnstone (rating 1448 vs 1492).
Cards-heavy: 5.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Kilmarnock	St Johnstone
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 2.3	1.1 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 1.4	0.5 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.9	1.7 / 3.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0.2	2.4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.75

X3.50

22.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.80

2 (-0.25)2.05

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.88

Under 2.751.98

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:40

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.75 → 2.75	Bet365 2.75
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.4%

Time*	1	X	2
00:25 +15’	2.75	3.50	2.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Kilmarnock 3–0–3 St Johnstone

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/08/26 Scotland Premiership	St Johnstone	4-3 HT 1-1	Kilmarnock
03/05/25 Scotland Premiership	St Johnstone	0-2 HT 0-1	Kilmarnock
15/02/25 Scotland Premiership	Kilmarnock	3-1 HT 1-0	St Johnstone
23/11/24 Scotland Premiership	St Johnstone	1-0 HT 0-0	Kilmarnock
11/08/24 Scotland Premiership	Kilmarnock	0-3 HT 0-2	St Johnstone
13/04/24 Scotland Premiership	St Johnstone	0-2 HT 0-1	Kilmarnock

Standings · Scotland Premiership

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Celtic	10	9	0	1	25	6	27
2	Rangers	10	7	2	1	17	7	23
3	Hearts	10	6	1	3	22	15	19
4	Dundee Utd	10	4	3	3	14	14	15
5	Dundee	10	4	2	4	14	12	14
6	St Mirren	10	4	1	5	11	18	13
7	Falkirk	10	3	3	4	12	12	12
8	St Johnstone	10	3	3	4	11	15	12
9	Aberdeen	10	3	2	5	12	13	11
10	Motherwell	10	2	2	6	11	18	8
11	Kilmarnock	10	2	2	6	10	23	8
12	Hibernian	10	2	1	7	10	16	7

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Kilmarnock	St Johnstone
Falkirk	0-3 L	1-1 D
Rangers	1-3 L	0-4 L
Hearts	1-1 D	1-2 L
Hibernian	1-0 W	2-1 W
Aberdeen	0-0 D	1-0 W
St Mirren	0-1 L	0-1 L
Dundee Utd	0-4 L	1-1 D
Celtic	1-5 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 5 L	2 W 2 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: St Johnstone (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Kilmarnock

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Falkirk Scotland Premiership	0-2	0-3	7	2	L
17/10	Motherwell Scotland Premiership	1-1	3-2	5	1	W
10/10	Rangers Scotland Premiership	0-3	1-3	3	2	L
19/09	Hearts Scotland Premiership	1-0	1-1	2	4	D
15/09	Hibernian Scotland Premiership	1-0	1-0	7	3	W
05/09	Aberdeen Scotland Premiership	0-0	0-0	7	8	D
02/09	St Mirren Scotland Premiership	0-1	0-1	7	4	L
29/08	Dundee Utd Scotland Premiership	0-3	0-4	3	6	L
09/08	Celtic Scotland Premiership	0-3	1-5	5	1	L
02/08	St Johnstone Scotland Premiership	1-1	3-4	3	4	L

St Johnstone

WLLDWLDWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Rangers Scotland Premiership	0-1	0-4	2	3	L
17/10	Dundee Utd Scotland Premiership	1-0	1-1	4	6	D
11/10	Aberdeen Scotland Premiership	1-0	1-0	2	0	W
19/09	Falkirk Scotland Premiership	0-0	1-1	3	4	D
09/09	Celtic Scotland Premiership	0-0	0-1	2	4	L
06/09	Hibernian Scotland Premiership	2-1	2-1	2	1	W
02/09	Dundee Scotland Premiership	0-0	1-1	5	2	D
29/08	Hearts Scotland Premiership	0-2	1-2	4	0	L
08/08	St Mirren Scotland Premiership	0-0	0-1	2	2	L
02/08	Kilmarnock Scotland Premiership	1-1	4-3	6	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Kilmarnock vs St Johnstone?

According to our model, the most likely result is an St Johnstone win (40%). Probabilities: Kilmarnock 33%, draw 26%, St Johnstone 40%.

How many goals are expected in Kilmarnock vs St Johnstone?

The model expects 2.97 goals (Kilmarnock 1.41 · St Johnstone 1.56), with a 51% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Kilmarnock vs St Johnstone?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.