Football · Scotland Premiership · 28/10, 21:00

Prediction: Hearts vs Rangers

Team pages: Hearts · Rangers

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.11Total

Hearts1.4

Rangers1.71

1X2

31% 26% 44%

Hearts Draw Rangers

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Hearts 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LLWWWWLDWL

Rangers 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

WDLWWWWWWD

Head-to-head

Hearts 3–3 Rangers (6 last)

Hearts2-1Rangers
Rangers4-2Hearts
Hearts2-1Rangers
Rangers0-2Hearts
Hearts1-3Rangers
Rangers1-0Hearts

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Hearts 1545 · Rangers 1599

	Hearts	Draw	Rangers
Our model	31%	26%	44%
Market	31%	26%	44%

Estimated total (ours) 3.11 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Rangers (rating 1545 vs 1599).
High corners: 13.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Hearts	Rangers
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 1.8	1.8 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 0.9	1 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/20/30%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.9 / 6.8	3 / 6.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.3	3.4 / 0

Odds Bet365

13.00

X3.60

22.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.98

2 (-0.25)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.98

Under 2.751.88

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 3.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:27

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.7%

Time*	1	X	2
00:23 +4’	3.00	3.60	2.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Hearts 3–0–3 Rangers

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/05/26 Scotland Premiership	Hearts	2-1 HT 0-1	Rangers
15/02/26 Scotland Premiership	Rangers	4-2 HT 2-2	Hearts
21/12/25 Scotland Premiership	Hearts	2-1 HT 2-0	Rangers
13/09/25 Scotland Premiership	Rangers	0-2 HT 0-1	Hearts
16/02/25 Scotland Premiership	Hearts	1-3 HT 0-1	Rangers
10/11/24 Scotland Premiership	Rangers	1-0 HT 1-0	Hearts

Standings · Scotland Premiership

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Celtic	9	8	0	1	23	5	24
2	Rangers	9	6	2	1	13	7	20
3	Hearts	9	5	1	3	20	15	16
4	Dundee	9	4	2	3	13	10	14
5	St Johnstone	9	3	3	3	11	11	12
6	Dundee Utd	9	3	3	3	11	12	12
7	Aberdeen	9	3	2	4	10	10	11
8	St Mirren	9	3	1	5	9	17	10
9	Falkirk	9	2	3	4	9	12	9
10	Motherwell	9	2	2	5	11	16	8
11	Kilmarnock	9	2	2	5	10	20	8
12	Hibernian	9	2	1	6	9	14	7

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Hearts	Rangers
Celtic	1-7 L	1-0 W
St Mirren	5-0 W	1-0 W
Kilmarnock	1-1 D	3-1 W
Falkirk	1-2 L	2-1 W
Dundee	2-1 W	2-2 D
Hibernian	3-1 W	1-2 L
Dundee Utd	4-0 W	1-1 D
Aberdeen	1-2 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 3 L	5 W 2 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Hearts

LLWWWWLDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Celtic Scotland Premiership	1-5	1-7	3	4	L
10/10	St Mirren Scotland Premiership	2-0	5-0	6	5	W
19/09	Kilmarnock Scotland Premiership	0-1	1-1	6	4	D
15/09	Falkirk Scotland Premiership	1-1	1-2	4	7	L
06/09	Dundee Scotland Premiership	0-1	2-1	14	6	W
03/09	Hibernian Scotland Premiership	2-0	3-1	8	3	W
29/08	St Johnstone Scotland Premiership	2-0	2-1	8	0	W
09/08	Dundee Utd Scotland Premiership	2-0	4-0	7	3	W
01/08	Aberdeen Scotland Premiership	1-0	1-2	6	6	L
16/05	Celtic Scotland Premiership	1-1	1-3	6	9	L

Rangers

WDLWWWWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Dundee Scotland Premiership	1-1	2-2	6	4	D
10/10	Kilmarnock Scotland Premiership	3-0	3-1	7	2	W
20/09	Celtic Scotland Premiership	1-0	1-0	4	5	W
09/09	St Mirren Scotland Premiership	0-0	1-0	12	2	W
05/09	Motherwell Scotland Premiership	1-0	1-0	7	0	W
02/09	Falkirk Scotland Premiership	1-1	2-1	6	3	W
30/08	Aberdeen Scotland Premiership	0-0	1-0	6	9	W
09/08	Hibernian Scotland Premiership	0-1	1-2	7	2	L
31/07	Dundee Utd Scotland Premiership	0-1	1-1	10	4	D
16/05	Falkirk Scotland Premiership	3-2	5-2	4	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Hearts vs Rangers?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Rangers win (44%). Probabilities: Hearts 31%, draw 26%, Rangers 44%.

How many goals are expected in Hearts vs Rangers?

The model expects 3.11 goals (Hearts 1.4 · Rangers 1.71), with a 51% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Hearts vs Rangers?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.