Football · Scotland Premiership · 28/10, 20:45

Prediction: Aberdeen vs Falkirk

Team pages: Aberdeen · Falkirk

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.49Total

Aberdeen1.48

Falkirk1.01

1X2

48% 27% 25%

Aberdeen Draw Falkirk

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Aberdeen 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LWLLLDWDLW

Falkirk 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LLDLLDWDLW

Head-to-head

Aberdeen 1–1–2 Falkirk (4 last)

Aberdeen1-1Falkirk
Falkirk1-0Aberdeen
Aberdeen0-1Falkirk
Aberdeen1-0Falkirk

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Aberdeen 1518 · Falkirk 1508

	Aberdeen	Draw	Falkirk
Our model	47%	29%	24%
Market	48%	26%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 2.49 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Falkirk: 2-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Aberdeen	Falkirk
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.3	1.1 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.8	0.8 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 5.3	2.5 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.2	3.8 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.91

X3.50

23.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.98

2 (+0.5)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.88

Under 2.51.98

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:27

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.91 → 1.91	Bet365 1.91
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.7%

Time*	1	X	2
00:21 +6’	1.91	3.50	3.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Aberdeen 1–1–2 Falkirk

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/03/26 Scotland Premiership	Aberdeen	1-1 HT 0-0	Falkirk
03/01/26 Scotland Premiership	Falkirk	1-0 HT 0-0	Aberdeen
31/08/25 Scotland Premiership	Aberdeen	0-1 HT 0-0	Falkirk
04/07/18 Club Friendly List	Aberdeen	1-0 HT 0-0	Falkirk

Standings · Scotland Premiership

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Celtic	9	8	0	1	23	5	24
2	Rangers	9	6	2	1	13	7	20
3	Hearts	9	5	1	3	20	15	16
4	Dundee	9	4	2	3	13	10	14
5	St Johnstone	9	3	3	3	11	11	12
6	Dundee Utd	9	3	3	3	11	12	12
7	Aberdeen	9	3	2	4	10	10	11
8	St Mirren	9	3	1	5	9	17	10
9	Falkirk	9	2	3	4	9	12	9
10	Motherwell	9	2	2	5	11	16	8
11	Kilmarnock	9	2	2	5	10	20	8
12	Hibernian	9	2	1	6	9	14	7

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Aberdeen	Falkirk
St Mirren	3-1 W	0-2 L
St Johnstone	0-1 L	1-1 D
Hibernian	1-1 D	2-1 W
Motherwell	4-0 W	0-0 D
Celtic	0-3 L	1-2 L
Rangers	0-1 L	1-2 L
Dundee	0-2 L	1-2 L
Hearts	2-1 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 4 L	2 W 2 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Falkirk (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Aberdeen

LWLLLDWDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	St Mirren Scotland Premiership	1-1	3-1	2	3	W
11/10	St Johnstone Scotland Premiership	0-1	0-1	13	0	L
19/09	Hibernian Scotland Premiership	1-0	1-1	9	4	D
15/09	Motherwell Scotland Premiership	1-0	4-0	2	5	W
05/09	Kilmarnock Scotland Premiership	0-0	0-0	6	8	D
02/09	Celtic Scotland Premiership	0-3	0-3	5	2	L
30/08	Rangers Scotland Premiership	0-0	0-1	6	9	L
08/08	Dundee Scotland Premiership	0-1	0-2	4	4	L
01/08	Hearts Scotland Premiership	0-1	2-1	4	6	W
17/05	Dundee Scotland Premiership	2-1	2-3	2	0	L

Falkirk

LLDLLDWDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Hibernian Scotland Premiership	2-1	2-1	3	4	W
10/10	Dundee Scotland Premiership	1-0	1-2	3	0	L
19/09	St Johnstone Scotland Premiership	0-0	1-1	8	4	D
15/09	Hearts Scotland Premiership	1-1	2-1	3	7	W
05/09	Dundee Utd Scotland Premiership	1-0	1-1	5	5	D
02/09	Rangers Scotland Premiership	1-1	1-2	5	3	L
29/08	Celtic Scotland Premiership	0-2	1-2	3	5	L
09/08	Motherwell Scotland Premiership	0-0	0-0	2	4	D
01/08	St Mirren Scotland Premiership	0-1	0-2	7	4	L
16/05	Rangers Scotland Premiership	2-3	2-5	7	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Aberdeen vs Falkirk?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Aberdeen win (48%). Probabilities: Aberdeen 48%, draw 27%, Falkirk 25%.

How many goals are expected in Aberdeen vs Falkirk?

The model expects 2.49 goals (Aberdeen 1.48 · Falkirk 1.01), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Aberdeen vs Falkirk?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.