Football · Scotland Premiership · 31/10, 16:00

Prediction: Motherwell vs St Mirren

Team pages: Motherwell · St Mirren

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.2Total

Motherwell1.92

St Mirren1.28

1X2

51% 24% 24%

Motherwell Draw St Mirren

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Motherwell 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

WDDWLLLLLL

St Mirren 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

WWDWLLLLLW

Head-to-head

Motherwell 2–3–1 St Mirren (6 last)

St Mirren3-3Motherwell
St Mirren0-5Motherwell
Motherwell2-0St Mirren
Motherwell1-4St Mirren
St Mirren0-0Motherwell
Motherwell2-2St Mirren

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Motherwell 1426 · St Mirren 1440

	Motherwell	Draw	St Mirren
Our model	51%	24%	24%
Market	51%	24%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 3.2 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Motherwell: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Motherwell	St Mirren
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.8	1.1 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 1	0.8 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/20/60%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 5	2.3 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0.1	3.5 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.80

X3.80

23.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)2.02

2 (+0.75)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 31.98

Under 31.88

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:40

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.80 → 1.80	Bet365 1.80
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.2%

Time*	1	X	2
00:34 +6’	1.80	3.80	3.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Motherwell 2–3–1 St Mirren

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Date	Home	Score	Away
30/08/26 Scotland Premiership	St Mirren	3-3 HT 3-2	Motherwell
21/02/26 Scotland Premiership	St Mirren	0-5 HT 0-2	Motherwell
03/01/26 Scotland Premiership	Motherwell	2-0 HT 1-0	St Mirren
01/11/25 Scotland League Cup	Motherwell	1-4 HT 0-2	St Mirren
09/08/25 Scotland Premiership	St Mirren	0-0 HT 0-0	Motherwell
15/03/25 Scotland Premiership	Motherwell	2-2 HT 1-2	St Mirren

Standings · Scotland Premiership

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Celtic	10	9	0	1	25	6	27
2	Rangers	10	7	2	1	17	7	23
3	Hearts	10	6	1	3	22	15	19
4	Dundee Utd	10	4	3	3	14	14	15
5	Dundee	10	4	2	4	14	12	14
6	St Mirren	10	4	1	5	11	18	13
7	Falkirk	10	3	3	4	12	12	12
8	St Johnstone	10	3	3	4	11	15	12
9	Aberdeen	10	3	2	5	12	13	11
10	Motherwell	10	2	2	6	11	18	8
11	Kilmarnock	10	2	2	6	10	23	8
12	Hibernian	10	2	1	7	10	16	7

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Motherwell	St Mirren
Hearts	0-2 L	0-5 L
Kilmarnock	2-3 L	1-0 W
Celtic	0-2 L	1-2 L
Dundee	1-2 L	2-1 W
Aberdeen	0-4 L	1-3 L
Rangers	0-1 L	0-1 L
Dundee Utd	3-0 W	0-3 L
Falkirk	0-0 D	2-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 6 L	3 W 0 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: St Mirren (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Motherwell

WDDWLLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	Hearts Scotland Premiership	0-1	0-2	6	8	L
17/10	Kilmarnock Scotland Premiership	1-1	2-3	3	1	L
11/10	Celtic Scotland Premiership	0-1	0-2	2	3	L
19/09	Dundee Scotland Premiership	1-2	1-2	9	2	L
15/09	Aberdeen Scotland Premiership	0-1	0-4	5	5	L
05/09	Rangers Scotland Premiership	0-1	0-1	5	0	L
02/09	Dundee Utd Scotland Premiership	1-0	3-0	9	2	W
30/08	St Mirren Scotland Premiership	2-3	3-3	7	4	D
09/08	Falkirk Scotland Premiership	0-0	0-0	2	4	D
02/08	Hibernian Scotland Premiership	1-0	2-1	2	4	W

St Mirren

WWDWLLLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Dundee Scotland Premiership	1-0	2-1	2	4	W
17/10	Aberdeen Scotland Premiership	1-1	1-3	6	3	L
10/10	Hearts Scotland Premiership	0-2	0-5	2	5	L
19/09	Dundee Utd Scotland Premiership	0-3	0-3	4	4	L
09/09	Rangers Scotland Premiership	0-0	0-1	0	2	L
05/09	Celtic Scotland Premiership	1-0	1-2	6	3	L
02/09	Kilmarnock Scotland Premiership	1-0	1-0	3	4	W
30/08	Motherwell Scotland Premiership	3-2	3-3	7	4	D
08/08	St Johnstone Scotland Premiership	0-0	1-0	5	2	W
01/08	Falkirk Scotland Premiership	1-0	2-0	7	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Motherwell vs St Mirren?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Motherwell win (51%). Probabilities: Motherwell 51%, draw 24%, St Mirren 24%.

How many goals are expected in Motherwell vs St Mirren?

The model expects 3.2 goals (Motherwell 1.92 · St Mirren 1.28), with a 50% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Motherwell vs St Mirren?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.