Football · Brazil Serie A · 18/10, 02:00

Prediction: Sao Paulo vs Vasco da Gama

Team pages: Sao Paulo · Vasco da Gama

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.21Total

Sao Paulo1.29

Vasco da Gama0.92

1X2

45% 30% 26%

Sao Paulo Draw Vasco da Gama

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Sao Paulo 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LDLWWLWLLW

Vasco da Gama 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DDLLWLWWWD

Head-to-head

Sao Paulo 2–1–3 Vasco da Gama (6 last)

Vasco da Gama2-1Sao Paulo
Vasco da Gama0-2Sao Paulo
Sao Paulo1-3Vasco da Gama
Sao Paulo3-0Vasco da Gama
Vasco da Gama4-1Sao Paulo
Vasco da Gama0-0Sao Paulo

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sao Paulo 1483 · Vasco da Gama 1550

	Sao Paulo	Draw	Vasco da Gama
Our model	44%	31%	25%
Market	45%	28%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 2.21 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Vasco da Gama (rating 1483 vs 1550).
H2H favours Vasco da Gama: 3-1-2.
High corners: 15.4 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sao Paulo	Vasco da Gama
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.2	1.4 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.5	0.4 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	4.1 / 7.8	3.3 / 7.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0.1	3.4 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.05

X3.25

23.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.80

2 (+0.25)2.05

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.88

Under 2.251.98

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:33

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.05 → 2.05	Pinn 2.17
X	3.25 → 3.25	Pinn 3.63 ★
2	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.1% Pinnacle margin 4.8%

Time*	1	X	2
00:31 +2’	2.05	3.25	3.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
09:42 +36’	2.18	3.63	3.17
17:54 +50’	2.17▼	3.63	3.21▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Sao Paulo 2–1–3 Vasco da Gama

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/04/26 Brazil Serie A	Vasco da Gama	2-1 HT 0-1	Sao Paulo
03/11/25 Brazil Serie A	Vasco da Gama	0-2 HT 0-1	Sao Paulo
13/06/25 Brazil Serie A	Sao Paulo	1-3 HT 0-2	Vasco da Gama
17/10/24 Brazil Serie A	Sao Paulo	3-0 HT 1-0	Vasco da Gama
23/06/24 Brazil Serie A	Vasco da Gama	4-1 HT 2-1	Sao Paulo
07/10/23 Brazil Serie A	Vasco da Gama	0-0 HT 0-0	Sao Paulo

Standings · Brazil Serie A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Flamengo	30	19	7	4	58	25	64
2	Palmeiras	30	18	9	3	52	22	63
3	Fluminense	30	14	9	7	48	37	51
4	Athletico Paranaense	29	14	8	7	45	34	50
5	EC Bahia	30	13	10	7	44	36	49
6	Cruzeiro	29	14	6	9	44	40	48
7	Atletico Mineiro	30	13	8	9	41	35	47
8	Santos	30	11	9	10	46	45	42
9	Sao Paulo	30	11	6	13	35	35	39
10	Coritiba	29	10	8	11	37	47	38
11	Bragantino	29	10	7	12	34	33	37
12	Vitoria	30	10	6	14	33	44	36
13	Botafogo	29	9	8	12	42	47	35
14	Vasco da Gama	29	9	8	12	36	42	35
15	Mirassol	30	8	9	13	34	44	33
16	Corinthians	30	8	8	14	31	38	32
17	Internacional	30	7	11	12	33	38	32
18	Gremio	30	7	10	13	32	40	31
19	Remo	30	5	10	15	33	48	25
20	Chapecoense	28	3	9	16	29	57	18

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sao Paulo	Vasco da Gama
Cruzeiro	0-2 L	3-1 W
Santos	1-2 L	0-3 L
Palmeiras	0-2 L	1-4 L
Coritiba	1-1 D	5-0 W
Gremio	1-2 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 4 L	3 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Vasco da Gama (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sao Paulo

LDLWWLWLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Vitoria Brazil Serie A	1-1	2-1	6	8	W
08/10	Cruzeiro Brazil Serie A	0-1	0-2	8	3	L
03/10	Santos Brazil Serie A	1-1	1-2	14	4	L
20/09	Internacional Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-0	3	4	W
12/09	Palmeiras Brazil Serie A	0-1	0-2	6	6	L
05/09	Atletico Mineiro Brazil Serie A	0-0	2-0	16	2	W
30/08	Bragantino Brazil Serie A	2-0	2-1	9	5	W
23/08	Chapecoense Brazil Serie A	0-1	0-1	3	4	L
16/08	Coritiba Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-1	6	3	D
08/08	Gremio Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-2	7	7	L

Vasco da Gama

DDLLWLWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Remo Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-0	6	4	D
08/10	Botafogo Brazil Serie A	1-0	2-1	14	1	W
20/09	Coritiba Brazil Serie A	2-0	5-0	12	3	W
12/09	Gremio Brazil Serie A	0-1	2-1	5	6	W
06/09	Fluminense Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-1	6	6	L
30/08	Cruzeiro Brazil Serie A	1-0	3-1	11	3	W
23/08	Palmeiras Brazil Serie A	0-0	1-4	3	4	L
16/08	Santos Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-3	4	2	L
09/08	EC Bahia Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-0	6	3	D
26/07	Mirassol Brazil Serie A	0-1	1-1	9	2	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sao Paulo vs Vasco da Gama?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Sao Paulo win (45%). Probabilities: Sao Paulo 45%, draw 30%, Vasco da Gama 26%.

How many goals are expected in Sao Paulo vs Vasco da Gama?

The model expects 2.21 goals (Sao Paulo 1.29 · Vasco da Gama 0.92), with a 51% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Sao Paulo vs Vasco da Gama?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.