Football · Brazil Serie A · 24/10, 23:30

Prediction: Vasco da Gama vs Corinthians

Team pages: Vasco da Gama · Corinthians

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.08Total

Vasco da Gama1.36

Corinthians0.72

1X2

52% 28% 20%

Vasco da Gama Draw Corinthians

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 58% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

1-0 16%

Recent form · 10 last

Vasco da Gama 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

DLLWLWWWDL

Corinthians 1-1-8 (W-D-L)

DWLLLLLLLL

Head-to-head

Vasco da Gama 0–1–5 Corinthians (6 last)

Corinthians1-0Vasco da Gama
Vasco da Gama1-2Corinthians
Corinthians0-0Vasco da Gama
Vasco da Gama2-3Corinthians
Corinthians3-0Vasco da Gama
Corinthians3-1Vasco da Gama

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Vasco da Gama 1542 · Corinthians 1440

	Vasco da Gama	Draw	Corinthians
Our model	51%	31%	19%
Market	53%	26%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 2.08 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 69%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Vasco da Gama (rating 1542 vs 1440).
H2H favours Corinthians: 5-1-0.
High corners: 13.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Vasco da Gama	Corinthians
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.2	0.9 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.1	0.1 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/60/10%	0/40/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.2 / 7.1	2.2 / 6.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0	6 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.75

X3.50

24.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)2.02

2 (+0.75)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.02

Under 2.51.82

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:35

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.75 → 1.75	Bet365 1.75
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.9%

Time*	1	X	2
00:31 +4’	1.75	3.50	4.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Vasco da Gama 0–1–5 Corinthians

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/04/26 Brazil Serie A	Corinthians	1-0 HT 1-0	Vasco da Gama
21/12/25 Copa do Brasil	Vasco da Gama	1-2 HT 1-1	Corinthians
18/12/25 Copa do Brasil	Corinthians	0-0 HT 0-0	Vasco da Gama
24/08/25 Brazil Serie A	Vasco da Gama	2-3 HT 0-1	Corinthians
05/04/25 Brazil Serie A	Corinthians	3-0 HT 2-0	Vasco da Gama
24/11/24 Brazil Serie A	Corinthians	3-1 HT 3-0	Vasco da Gama

Standings · Brazil Serie A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Flamengo	31	20	7	4	61	25	67
2	Palmeiras	31	19	9	3	54	22	66
3	Athletico Paranaense	31	15	8	8	49	37	53
4	Cruzeiro	31	15	6	10	50	46	51
5	Fluminense	31	14	9	8	49	39	51
6	Atletico Mineiro	31	14	8	9	42	35	50
7	EC Bahia	31	13	10	8	44	39	49
8	Santos	31	12	9	10	48	46	45
9	Sao Paulo	31	12	6	13	36	35	42
10	Bragantino	31	11	8	12	39	36	41
11	Botafogo	31	10	9	12	44	48	39
12	Coritiba	31	10	9	12	38	49	39
13	Vitoria	30	10	6	14	33	44	36
14	Mirassol	31	9	9	13	36	44	36
15	Vasco da Gama	30	9	8	13	36	43	35
16	Corinthians	30	8	8	14	31	38	32
17	Internacional	31	7	11	13	33	40	32
18	Gremio	31	7	10	14	34	44	31
19	Remo	31	5	11	15	34	49	26
20	Chapecoense	30	3	9	18	30	62	18

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Vasco da Gama	Corinthians
Coritiba	5-0 W	1-2 L
Fluminense	0-1 L	1-3 L
Cruzeiro	3-1 W	1-2 L
Palmeiras	1-4 L	1-4 L
Santos	0-3 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 3 L	0 W 0 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Vasco da Gama (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Vasco da Gama

DLLWLWWWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Sao Paulo Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-1	4	4	L
10/10	Remo Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-0	6	4	D
08/10	Botafogo Brazil Serie A	1-0	2-1	14	1	W
20/09	Coritiba Brazil Serie A	2-0	5-0	12	3	W
12/09	Gremio Brazil Serie A	0-1	2-1	5	6	W
06/09	Fluminense Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-1	6	6	L
30/08	Cruzeiro Brazil Serie A	1-0	3-1	11	3	W
23/08	Palmeiras Brazil Serie A	0-0	1-4	3	4	L
16/08	Santos Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-3	4	2	L
09/08	EC Bahia Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-0	6	3	D

Corinthians

DWLLLLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Palmeiras Brazil Serie A	0-2	1-4	3	7	L
08/10	Internacional Brazil Serie A	0-1	1-2	12	9	L
20/09	Fluminense Brazil Serie A	0-1	1-3	11	8	L
13/09	Flamengo Brazil Serie A	0-0	1-2	0	6	L
07/09	Chapecoense Brazil Serie A	1-1	1-2	5	4	L
30/08	Santos Brazil Serie A	0-1	0-1	8	6	L
24/08	Coritiba Brazil Serie A	0-1	1-2	14	4	L
17/08	Cruzeiro Brazil Serie A	0-1	1-2	3	5	L
09/08	Bragantino Brazil Serie A	0-0	2-0	2	4	W
31/07	Athletico Paranaense Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-0	6	7	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Vasco da Gama vs Corinthians?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Vasco da Gama win (52%). Probabilities: Vasco da Gama 52%, draw 28%, Corinthians 20%.

How many goals are expected in Vasco da Gama vs Corinthians?

The model expects 2.08 goals (Vasco da Gama 1.36 · Corinthians 0.72), with a 58% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Vasco da Gama vs Corinthians?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.