Football · Brazil Serie A · 25/10, 00:30

Prediction: Chapecoense vs Fluminense

Team pages: Chapecoense · Fluminense

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.09Total

Chapecoense1.18

Fluminense1.91

1X2

22% 25% 53%

Chapecoense Draw Fluminense

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Chapecoense 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LDWLWLDLLL

Fluminense 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

DWWDWLWWLL

Head-to-head

Chapecoense 0–2–4 Fluminense (6 last)

Fluminense2-1Chapecoense
Fluminense3-0Chapecoense
Chapecoense1-2Fluminense
Fluminense1-1Chapecoense
Chapecoense1-1Fluminense
Chapecoense1-2Fluminense

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Chapecoense 1437 · Fluminense 1515

	Chapecoense	Draw	Fluminense
Our model	22%	24%	54%
Market	21%	26%	53%

Estimated total (ours) 3.09 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Fluminense (rating 1437 vs 1515).
H2H favours Fluminense: 4-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Chapecoense	Fluminense
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 2.1	1.9 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 1.2	0.5 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/20/60%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4.7	2 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0	4.7 / 0

Odds Bet365

14.33

X3.50

21.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.82

2 (-0.75)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.85

Under 2.52.00

Diff.: 0.75 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 07:10

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.10 → 4.33▲	Bet365 4.33
X	3.40 → 3.50▲	Pinn 3.76 ★
2	1.83 → 1.75▼	Pinn 1.81

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 8.8% Pinnacle margin 5%

Time*	1	X	2
00:25 +10’	4.10	3.40	1.83
07:06 +4’	4.33▲	3.50▲	1.75▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
21:11 +13’	4.37	3.77	1.77
22:12 +8’	4.42▲	3.82▲	1.77▲
23:05 +11’	4.14▼	3.70▼	1.85▲
07:00 +10’	4.30▲	3.76▲	1.81▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Chapecoense 0–2–4 Fluminense

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Date	Home	Score	Away
27/04/26 Brazil Serie A	Fluminense	2-1 HT 0-0	Chapecoense
10/12/21 Brazil Serie A	Fluminense	3-0 HT 0-0	Chapecoense
08/09/21 Brazil Serie A	Chapecoense	1-2 HT 0-2	Fluminense
27/10/19 Brazil Serie A	Fluminense	1-1 HT 0-1	Chapecoense
14/06/19 Brazil Serie A	Chapecoense	1-1 HT 1-0	Fluminense
25/09/18 Brazil Serie A	Chapecoense	1-2 HT 0-2	Fluminense

Standings · Brazil Serie A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Flamengo	31	20	7	4	61	25	67
2	Palmeiras	31	19	9	3	54	22	66
3	Athletico Paranaense	31	15	8	8	49	37	53
4	Cruzeiro	31	15	6	10	50	46	51
5	Fluminense	31	14	9	8	49	39	51
6	Atletico Mineiro	31	14	8	9	42	35	50
7	EC Bahia	31	13	10	8	44	39	49
8	Santos	31	12	9	10	48	46	45
9	Sao Paulo	31	12	6	13	36	35	42
10	Bragantino	31	11	8	12	39	36	41
11	Botafogo	31	10	9	12	44	48	39
12	Coritiba	31	10	9	12	38	49	39
13	Vitoria	30	10	6	14	33	44	36
14	Mirassol	31	9	9	13	36	44	36
15	Vasco da Gama	30	9	8	13	36	43	35
16	Corinthians	30	8	8	14	31	38	32
17	Internacional	31	7	11	13	33	40	32
18	Gremio	31	7	10	14	34	44	31
19	Remo	31	5	11	15	34	49	26
20	Chapecoense	30	3	9	18	30	62	18

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Chapecoense	Fluminense
Botafogo	0-1 L	1-1 D
Athletico Paranaense	1-4 L	3-3 D
Atletico Mineiro	1-1 D	1-3 L
Corinthians	2-1 W	3-1 W
Coritiba	1-2 L	4-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 3 L	2 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Fluminense (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Chapecoense

LDWLWLDLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Botafogo Brazil Serie A	0-1	0-1	4	1	L
13/10	Athletico Paranaense Brazil Serie A	0-3	1-4	6	3	L
08/10	Vitoria Brazil Serie A	0-1	0-4	6	5	L
19/09	Atletico Mineiro Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-1	2	3	D
12/09	Internacional Brazil Serie A	1-1	1-2	4	8	L
07/09	Corinthians Brazil Serie A	1-1	2-1	2	4	W
30/08	Gremio Brazil Serie A	1-2	1-3	7	4	L
23/08	Sao Paulo Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-0	7	4	W
16/08	EC Bahia Brazil Serie A	1-2	3-3	3	3	D
09/08	Coritiba Brazil Serie A	0-1	1-2	6	2	L

Fluminense

DWWDWLWWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Santos Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-2	4	3	L
11/10	Flamengo Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-1	2	7	L
09/10	Coritiba Brazil Serie A	1-0	4-0	3	1	W
20/09	Corinthians Brazil Serie A	1-0	3-1	1	8	W
12/09	Atletico Mineiro Brazil Serie A	0-0	1-3	2	3	L
06/09	Vasco da Gama Brazil Serie A	0-0	1-0	6	6	W
30/08	Athletico Paranaense Brazil Serie A	1-1	3-3	3	4	D
22/08	Remo Brazil Serie A	0-1	2-1	11	2	W
15/08	Palmeiras Brazil Serie A	1-1	3-2	5	7	W
09/08	Botafogo Brazil Serie A	0-1	1-1	7	6	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Chapecoense vs Fluminense?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Fluminense win (53%). Probabilities: Chapecoense 22%, draw 25%, Fluminense 53%.

How many goals are expected in Chapecoense vs Fluminense?

The model expects 3.09 goals (Chapecoense 1.18 · Fluminense 1.91), with a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Chapecoense vs Fluminense?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.