Football · Brazil Serie A · 27/10, 00:00

Prediction: Flamengo vs Atletico Mineiro

Team pages: Flamengo · Atletico Mineiro

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.88Total

Flamengo2.12

Atletico Mineiro0.76

1X2

68% 21% 11%

Flamengo Draw Atletico Mineiro

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

2-0 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Flamengo 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

WLWWWWWDWW

Atletico Mineiro 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

WDWLWDWDWW

Head-to-head

Flamengo 3–2–1 Atletico Mineiro (6 last)

Atletico Mineiro0-4Flamengo
Atletico Mineiro1-1Flamengo
Atletico Mineiro0-1Flamengo
Flamengo0-1Atletico Mineiro
Flamengo1-0Atletico Mineiro
Flamengo0-0Atletico Mineiro

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Flamengo 1627 · Atletico Mineiro 1552

	Flamengo	Draw	Atletico Mineiro
Our model	68%	21%	11%
Market	68%	21%	11%

Estimated total (ours) 2.88 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Flamengo (rating 1627 vs 1552).
H2H favours Flamengo: 3-2-1.
High corners: 13.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Flamengo	Atletico Mineiro
Goals for / against (FT)	2.2 / 0.7	1.5 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0	0.4 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/40/0%	30/60/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	4.2 / 7.4	3.1 / 6.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5 / 0.1	3.8 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.40

X4.50

28.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)2.00

2 (+1.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 31.98

Under 31.88

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 05:25

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.36 → 1.40▲	Bet365 1.40
X	4.75 → 4.50▼	Pinn 5.42 ★
2	8.00 → 8.50▲	Bet365 8.50

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 5.4% Pinnacle margin 5.3%

Time*	1	X	2
00:17 +3’	1.36	4.75	8.00
05:23 +2’	1.40▲	4.50▼	8.50▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:02 +18’	1.33	5.49	8.37
13:01 +24’	1.34▲	5.41▼	8.29▼
10:53 +37’	1.34▲	5.38▼	8.27▼
15:38 +3’	1.33▼	5.42▲	8.40▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Flamengo 3–2–1 Atletico Mineiro

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
27/04/26 Brazil Serie A	Atletico Mineiro	0-4 HT 0-3	Flamengo
26/11/25 Brazil Serie A	Atletico Mineiro	1-1 HT 1-0	Flamengo
07/08/25 Copa do Brasil	Atletico Mineiro	0-1 HT 0-1	Flamengo
01/08/25 Copa do Brasil	Flamengo	0-1 HT 0-0	Atletico Mineiro
28/07/25 Brazil Serie A	Flamengo	1-0 HT 0-0	Atletico Mineiro
14/11/24 Brazil Serie A	Flamengo	0-0 HT 0-0	Atletico Mineiro

Standings · Brazil Serie A

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Flamengo	31	20	7	4	61	25	67
2	Palmeiras	31	19	9	3	54	22	66
3	Athletico Paranaense	31	15	8	8	49	37	53
4	Cruzeiro	31	15	6	10	50	46	51
5	Fluminense	31	14	9	8	49	39	51
6	Atletico Mineiro	31	14	8	9	42	35	50
7	EC Bahia	31	13	10	8	44	39	49
8	Santos	31	12	9	10	48	46	45
9	Sao Paulo	31	12	6	13	36	35	42
10	Bragantino	31	11	8	12	39	36	41
11	Botafogo	31	10	9	12	44	48	39
12	Coritiba	31	10	9	12	38	49	39
13	Vitoria	31	10	7	14	34	45	37
14	Mirassol	31	9	9	13	36	44	36
15	Vasco da Gama	30	9	8	13	36	43	35
16	Corinthians	31	8	9	14	32	39	33
17	Internacional	31	7	11	13	33	40	32
18	Gremio	31	7	10	14	34	44	31
19	Remo	31	5	11	15	34	49	26
20	Chapecoense	30	3	9	18	30	62	18

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Flamengo	Atletico Mineiro
Fluminense	1-0 W	3-1 W
Santos	2-2 D	2-1 W
Bragantino	2-1 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 0 L	3 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Atletico Mineiro (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Flamengo

WLWWWWWDWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	EC Bahia Brazil Serie A	0-0	3-0	14	6	W
11/10	Fluminense Brazil Serie A	0-0	1-0	4	7	W
09/10	Santos Brazil Serie A	2-0	2-2	5	11	D
20/09	Bragantino Brazil Serie A	1-0	2-1	2	6	W
13/09	Corinthians Brazil Serie A	0-0	2-1	20	6	W
06/09	Remo Brazil Serie A	0-0	1-0	9	4	W
03/09	Mirassol Brazil Serie A	2-0	2-0	9	2	W
30/08	Botafogo Brazil Serie A	1-0	3-0	5	2	W
23/08	Cruzeiro Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-2	3	4	L
16/08	Mirassol Brazil Serie A	1-0	5-1	3	3	W

Atletico Mineiro

WDWLWDWDWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Coritiba Brazil Serie A	0-0	1-0	10	2	W
11/10	Santos Brazil Serie A	0-0	2-1	12	7	W
09/10	Athletico Paranaense Brazil Serie A	1-1	2-2	3	3	D
03/10	Bragantino Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-0	5	2	W
19/09	Chapecoense Brazil Serie A	0-1	1-1	10	3	D
12/09	Fluminense Brazil Serie A	0-0	3-1	5	3	W
05/09	Sao Paulo Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-2	2	2	L
29/08	Vitoria Brazil Serie A	1-0	2-1	4	3	W
22/08	Internacional Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-0	5	8	D
16/08	Gremio Brazil Serie A	1-0	3-0	8	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Flamengo vs Atletico Mineiro?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Flamengo win (68%). Probabilities: Flamengo 68%, draw 21%, Atletico Mineiro 11%.

How many goals are expected in Flamengo vs Atletico Mineiro?

The model expects 2.88 goals (Flamengo 2.12 · Atletico Mineiro 0.76), with a 54% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Flamengo vs Atletico Mineiro?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.