Football · Brazil Serie A · 25/10, 02:00

Prediction: Santos vs EC Bahia

Team pages: Santos · EC Bahia

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.99Total

Santos1.75

EC Bahia1.25

1X2

48% 26% 26%

Santos Draw EC Bahia

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Santos 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

WDWWWWWDLW

EC Bahia 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

DDWWWWLLWL

Head-to-head

Santos 1–4–1 EC Bahia (6 last)

EC Bahia2-2Santos
EC Bahia2-0Santos
Santos2-2EC Bahia
EC Bahia1-2Santos
EC Bahia1-1Santos
Santos0-0EC Bahia

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Santos 1567 · EC Bahia 1518

	Santos	Draw	EC Bahia
Our model	48%	26%	26%
Market	48%	27%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 2.99 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Santos (rating 1567 vs 1518).
Cards-heavy: 10 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Santos	EC Bahia
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1.1	1.5 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.5	1 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 4.6	2.4 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.6 / 0.4	4.4 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.95

X3.50

23.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.00

2 (+0.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.85

Under 2.52.00

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 19:26

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 1.95▼	Bet365 1.95
X	3.40 → 3.50▲	Bet365 3.50
2	3.30 → 3.60▲	Bet365 3.60

See the full journey (4)

Bet365 margin 7.6%

Time*	1	X	2
00:12 +3’	2.10	3.40	3.30
07:05 +6’	1.95▼	3.60▲	3.50▲
13:07 +10’	1.95	3.60	3.60▲
19:22 +4’	1.95	3.50▼	3.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Santos 1–4–1 EC Bahia

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/04/26 Brazil Serie A	EC Bahia	2-2 HT 0-2	Santos
24/08/25 Brazil Serie A	EC Bahia	2-0 HT 1-0	Santos
07/04/25 Brazil Serie A	Santos	2-2 HT 0-1	EC Bahia
19/09/23 Brazil Serie A	EC Bahia	1-2 HT 0-0	Santos
01/06/23 Copa do Brasil	EC Bahia	1-1 HT 0-0	Santos
18/05/23 Copa do Brasil	Santos	0-0 HT 0-0	EC Bahia

Standings · Brazil Serie A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Flamengo	31	20	7	4	61	25	67
2	Palmeiras	31	19	9	3	54	22	66
3	Athletico Paranaense	31	15	8	8	49	37	53
4	Cruzeiro	31	15	6	10	50	46	51
5	Fluminense	31	14	9	8	49	39	51
6	Atletico Mineiro	31	14	8	9	42	35	50
7	EC Bahia	31	13	10	8	44	39	49
8	Santos	31	12	9	10	48	46	45
9	Sao Paulo	31	12	6	13	36	35	42
10	Bragantino	31	11	8	12	39	36	41
11	Botafogo	31	10	9	12	44	48	39
12	Coritiba	31	10	9	12	38	49	39
13	Vitoria	30	10	6	14	33	44	36
14	Mirassol	31	9	9	13	36	44	36
15	Vasco da Gama	30	9	8	13	36	43	35
16	Corinthians	30	8	8	14	31	38	32
17	Internacional	31	7	11	13	33	40	32
18	Gremio	31	7	10	14	34	44	31
19	Remo	31	5	11	15	34	49	26
20	Chapecoense	30	3	9	18	30	62	18

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Santos	EC Bahia
Flamengo	2-2 D	0-3 L
Remo	2-1 W	2-1 W
Internacional	3-2 W	3-2 W
Mirassol	1-1 D	1-0 W
Vasco da Gama	3-0 W	0-0 D
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 0 L	3 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Santos (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Santos

WDWWWWWDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Fluminense Brazil Serie A	0-1	2-1	5	3	W
11/10	Atletico Mineiro Brazil Serie A	0-0	1-2	3	7	L
09/10	Flamengo Brazil Serie A	0-2	2-2	5	11	D
03/10	Sao Paulo Brazil Serie A	1-1	2-1	1	4	W
19/09	Remo Brazil Serie A	0-0	2-1	4	7	W
13/09	Cruzeiro Brazil Serie A	2-0	2-1	13	5	W
06/09	Internacional Brazil Serie A	3-0	3-2	2	9	W
30/08	Corinthians Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-0	1	6	W
23/08	Mirassol Brazil Serie A	0-1	1-1	10	6	D
16/08	Vasco da Gama Brazil Serie A	0-0	3-0	2	2	W

EC Bahia

DDWWWWLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Flamengo Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-3	4	6	L
12/10	Mirassol Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-0	6	5	W
09/10	Palmeiras Brazil Serie A	0-1	0-1	3	3	L
21/09	Athletico Paranaense Brazil Serie A	1-1	1-2	3	5	L
15/09	Remo Brazil Serie A	1-0	2-1	7	3	W
05/09	Bragantino Brazil Serie A	2-2	3-2	8	3	W
31/08	Internacional Brazil Serie A	3-1	3-2	3	6	W
23/08	Vitoria Brazil Serie A	0-0	2-0	7	7	W
16/08	Chapecoense Brazil Serie A	2-1	3-3	5	3	D
09/08	Vasco da Gama Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-0	4	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Santos vs EC Bahia?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Santos win (48%). Probabilities: Santos 48%, draw 26%, EC Bahia 26%.

How many goals are expected in Santos vs EC Bahia?

The model expects 2.99 goals (Santos 1.75 · EC Bahia 1.25), with a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Santos vs EC Bahia?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.