Football · Brazil Serie A · 26/10, 23:30

Prediction: Coritiba vs Gremio

Team pages: Coritiba · Gremio

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.8Total

Coritiba1.55

Gremio1.25

1X2

43% 28% 29%

Coritiba Draw Gremio

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Coritiba 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

WDWWLDLLDL

Gremio 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

LLWLLLDDDL

Head-to-head

Coritiba 0–1–5 Gremio (6 last)

Gremio1-0Coritiba
Coritiba1-2Gremio
Gremio5-1Coritiba
Coritiba1-1Gremio
Gremio2-1Coritiba
Coritiba0-1Gremio

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Coritiba 1470 · Gremio 1453

	Coritiba	Draw	Gremio
Our model	43%	27%	30%
Market	42%	29%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 2.8 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Gremio: 5-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 9.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Coritiba	Gremio
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 2.1	1 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.7	0.7 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.6	2.1 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.1	5.7 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.25

X3.25

23.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.93

2 (+0.25)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.93

Under 2.51.93

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 05:25

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.20 → 2.25▲	Bet365 2.25
X	3.25 → 3.25	Pinn 3.58 ★
2	3.20 → 3.30▲	Bet365 3.30

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 5.5% Pinnacle margin 4.9%

Time*	1	X	2
00:14 +5’	2.20	3.25	3.20
05:20 +5’	2.25▲	3.25	3.30▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
09:28 +891’	2.16	3.60	3.25
08:37 +42’	2.17▲	3.58▼	3.24▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Coritiba 0–1–5 Gremio

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/04/26 Brazil Serie A	Gremio	1-0 HT 1-0	Coritiba
02/11/23 Brazil Serie A	Coritiba	1-2 HT 0-1	Gremio
25/06/23 Brazil Serie A	Gremio	5-1 HT 1-1	Coritiba
31/01/21 Brazil Serie A	Coritiba	1-1 HT 0-1	Gremio
08/10/20 Brazil Serie A	Gremio	2-1 HT 2-0	Coritiba
15/10/17 Brazil Serie A	Coritiba	0-1 HT 0-0	Gremio

Standings · Brazil Serie A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Flamengo	31	20	7	4	61	25	67
2	Palmeiras	31	19	9	3	54	22	66
3	Athletico Paranaense	31	15	8	8	49	37	53
4	Cruzeiro	31	15	6	10	50	46	51
5	Fluminense	31	14	9	8	49	39	51
6	Atletico Mineiro	31	14	8	9	42	35	50
7	EC Bahia	31	13	10	8	44	39	49
8	Santos	31	12	9	10	48	46	45
9	Sao Paulo	31	12	6	13	36	35	42
10	Bragantino	31	11	8	12	39	36	41
11	Botafogo	31	10	9	12	44	48	39
12	Coritiba	31	10	9	12	38	49	39
13	Vitoria	31	10	7	14	34	45	37
14	Mirassol	31	9	9	13	36	44	36
15	Vasco da Gama	30	9	8	13	36	43	35
16	Corinthians	31	8	9	14	32	39	33
17	Internacional	31	7	11	13	33	40	32
18	Gremio	31	7	10	14	34	44	31
19	Remo	31	5	11	15	34	49	26
20	Chapecoense	30	3	9	18	30	62	18

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Coritiba	Gremio
Atletico Mineiro	0-1 L	0-3 L
Botafogo	1-1 D	2-3 L
Vasco da Gama	0-5 L	1-2 L
Remo	3-2 W	1-1 D
Chapecoense	2-1 W	3-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 2 L	1 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Coritiba (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Coritiba

WDWWLDLLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Atletico Mineiro Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-1	5	2	L
12/10	Botafogo Brazil Serie A	1-1	1-1	8	7	D
09/10	Fluminense Brazil Serie A	0-1	0-4	2	1	L
20/09	Vasco da Gama Brazil Serie A	0-2	0-5	2	3	L
12/09	Athletico Paranaense Brazil Serie A	1-2	3-3	8	8	D
06/09	Mirassol Brazil Serie A	0-0	1-2	5	5	L
01/09	Remo Brazil Serie A	0-0	3-2	4	4	W
24/08	Corinthians Brazil Serie A	1-0	2-1	4	4	W
16/08	Sao Paulo Brazil Serie A	0-1	1-1	3	3	D
09/08	Chapecoense Brazil Serie A	1-0	2-1	5	2	W

Gremio

LLWLLLDDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Cruzeiro Brazil Serie A	2-1	2-4	8	6	L
11/10	Internacional Brazil Serie A	0-1	1-1	6	5	D
08/10	Remo Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-1	4	7	D
20/09	Palmeiras Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-0	2	10	D
17/09	Botafogo Brazil Serie A	1-1	2-3	3	2	L
12/09	Vasco da Gama Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-2	3	6	L
08/09	Vitoria Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-1	1	7	L
30/08	Chapecoense Brazil Serie A	2-1	3-1	5	4	W
23/08	Bragantino Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-1	5	5	L
16/08	Atletico Mineiro Brazil Serie A	0-1	0-3	6	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Coritiba vs Gremio?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Coritiba win (43%). Probabilities: Coritiba 43%, draw 28%, Gremio 29%.

How many goals are expected in Coritiba vs Gremio?

The model expects 2.8 goals (Coritiba 1.55 · Gremio 1.25), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Coritiba vs Gremio?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.