Football · Brazil Serie A · 18/10, 22:00

Prediction: Mirassol vs Internacional

Team pages: Mirassol · Internacional

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Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.65Total

Mirassol1.43

Internacional1.21

1X2

41% 28% 31%

Mirassol Draw Internacional

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Mirassol 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

LLDDLWDWDL

Internacional 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

DDDDLLWLWD

Head-to-head

Mirassol 2–1–0 Internacional (3 last)

Internacional1-2Mirassol
Mirassol3-1Internacional
Internacional1-1Mirassol

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Mirassol 1511 · Internacional 1451

	Mirassol	Draw	Internacional
Our model	41%	28%	31%
Market	41%	28%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 2.65 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Mirassol (rating 1511 vs 1451).
H2H favours Mirassol: 2-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 9.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Mirassol	Internacional
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.7	1.1 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.7	0.6 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.4	1.3 / 3.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.3	6.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.25

X3.30

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.00

2 (+0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.93

Under 2.51.93

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 8 moves · last 22:43

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.00▼	Pinn 2.11 ★
X	3.30 → 3.60▲	Bet365 3.60
2	3.00 → 3.60▲	Pinn 3.61

See the full journey (8)

Bet365 margin 5.6% Pinnacle margin 3.3%

Time*	1	X	2
00:26 +7’	2.25	3.30	3.00
03:04 +3’	2.15▼	3.30	3.20▲
17:18 +2’	2.10▼	3.40▲	3.25▲
04:06 +1’	2.15▲	3.40	3.40▲
13:23 +8’	2.15	3.40	3.50▲
15:26 +5’	2.00▼	3.60▲	3.60▲
18:37 +4’	2.00	3.50▼	3.70▲
22:03 +40’	2.00	3.60▲	3.60▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
12:45 +273’	2.28	3.38	3.20
20:03 +16’	2.19▼	3.41▲	3.34▲
05:31 +35’	2.18▼	3.41	3.37▲
16:39 +41’	2.16▼	3.41	3.42▲
01:54 +15’	2.14▼	3.42▲	3.45▲
07:00 +5’	2.15▲	3.39▼	3.46▲
01:04 +2’	2.17▲	3.43▲	3.49▲
07:23 +41’	2.17	3.42▼	3.50▲
09:50 +18’	2.17	3.43▲	3.49▼
10:47 +24’	2.18▲	3.42▼	3.47▼
13:01 +30’	2.19▲	3.44▲	3.49▲
15:05 +26’	2.10▼	3.54▲	3.65▲
17:58 +42’	2.10	3.53▼	3.65
22:40 +3’	2.07▼	3.59▲	3.68▲
23:25	2.11▲	3.54▼	3.61▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Mirassol 2–1–0 Internacional

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/04/26 Brazil Serie A	Internacional	1-2 HT 0-2	Mirassol
16/10/25 Brazil Serie A	Mirassol	3-1 HT 2-1	Internacional
19/05/25 Brazil Serie A	Internacional	1-1 HT 0-1	Mirassol

Standings · Brazil Serie A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Palmeiras	31	19	9	3	54	22	66
2	Flamengo	30	19	7	4	58	25	64
3	Athletico Paranaense	31	15	8	8	49	37	53
4	Fluminense	30	14	9	7	48	37	51
5	Atletico Mineiro	31	14	8	9	42	35	50
6	EC Bahia	30	13	10	7	44	36	49
7	Cruzeiro	30	14	6	10	46	44	48
8	Sao Paulo	31	12	6	13	36	35	42
9	Santos	30	11	9	10	46	45	42
10	Bragantino	30	11	7	12	38	35	40
11	Botafogo	31	10	9	12	44	48	39
12	Coritiba	31	10	9	12	38	49	39
13	Vitoria	30	10	6	14	33	44	36
14	Mirassol	31	9	9	13	36	44	36
15	Vasco da Gama	30	9	8	13	36	43	35
16	Corinthians	30	8	8	14	31	38	32
17	Internacional	31	7	11	13	33	40	32
18	Gremio	30	7	10	13	32	40	31
19	Remo	30	5	10	15	33	48	25
20	Chapecoense	30	3	9	18	30	62	18

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Mirassol	Internacional
EC Bahia	0-1 L	2-3 L
Flamengo	0-2 L	1-1 D
Palmeiras	1-1 D	0-0 D
Santos	1-1 D	2-3 L
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 2 L	0 W 2 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Mirassol

LLDDLWDWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/10	EC Bahia Brazil Serie A	0-1	0-1	2	5	L
08/10	Bragantino Brazil Serie A	0-0	1-1	3	1	D
19/09	Botafogo Brazil Serie A	2-0	2-0	3	1	W
13/09	Vitoria Brazil Serie A	0-2	2-2	12	10	D
06/09	Coritiba Brazil Serie A	0-0	2-1	7	5	W
03/09	Flamengo Brazil Serie A	0-2	0-2	7	2	L
30/08	Palmeiras Brazil Serie A	0-0	1-1	3	3	D
23/08	Santos Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-1	2	6	D
16/08	Flamengo Brazil Serie A	0-1	1-5	4	3	L
09/08	Cruzeiro Brazil Serie A	1-1	1-3	1	4	L

Internacional

DDDDLLWLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Gremio Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-1	5	5	D
08/10	Corinthians Brazil Serie A	1-0	2-1	3	9	W
20/09	Sao Paulo Brazil Serie A	0-1	0-1	3	4	L
12/09	Chapecoense Brazil Serie A	1-1	2-1	2	8	W
06/09	Santos Brazil Serie A	0-3	2-3	7	9	L
31/08	EC Bahia Brazil Serie A	1-3	2-3	3	6	L
22/08	Atletico Mineiro Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-0	6	8	D
18/08	Remo Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-1	4	5	D
09/08	Palmeiras Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-0	2	4	D
30/07	Flamengo Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-1	2	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Mirassol vs Internacional?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Mirassol win (41%). Probabilities: Mirassol 41%, draw 28%, Internacional 31%.

How many goals are expected in Mirassol vs Internacional?

The model expects 2.65 goals (Mirassol 1.43 · Internacional 1.21), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Mirassol vs Internacional?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.