Football · Brazil Serie A · 20/10, 01:00

Prediction: Corinthians vs Vitoria

Team pages: Corinthians · Vitoria

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.19Total

Corinthians1.52

Vitoria0.66

1X2

58% 27% 16%

Corinthians Draw Vitoria

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 63% Not both to score 53%

Most likely score

1-0 16%

Recent form · 10 last

Corinthians 1-1-8 (W-D-L)

DWLLLLLLLL

Vitoria 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LLWLLWDLWL

Head-to-head

Corinthians 3–3–0 Vitoria (6 last)

Vitoria0-0Corinthians
Vitoria0-1Corinthians
Corinthians0-0Vitoria
Vitoria1-2Corinthians
Corinthians3-2Vitoria
Vitoria2-2Corinthians

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Corinthians 1426 · Vitoria 1430

	Corinthians	Draw	Vitoria
Our model	57%	28%	15%
Market	58%	26%	16%

Estimated total (ours) 2.19 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Corinthians: 3-3-0.
High corners: 11.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 11.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Corinthians	Vitoria
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.8	1.1 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.1 / 0.8	0.6 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/40/60%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 6.4	2.6 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6 / 0	5.5 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.65

X3.70

26.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.82

2 (+0.75)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.88

Under 2.251.98

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 7 moves · last 14:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.65 → 1.65	Bet365 1.65
X	3.60 → 3.70▲	Pinn 3.82 ★
2	5.25 → 6.00▲	Bet365 6.00

See the full journey (7)

Bet365 margin 4.3% Pinnacle margin 5.2%

Time*	1	X	2
00:30 +3’	1.65	3.60	5.25
18:37 +7’	1.70▲	3.50▼	5.00▼
12:28 +3’	1.65▼	3.60▲	5.25▲
11:24 +3’	1.61▼	3.70▲	5.50▲
03:26 +4’	1.65▲	3.70	5.75▲
18:16 +5’	1.67▲	3.70	5.75
14:12 +6’	1.65▼	3.70	6.00▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
09:42 +541’	1.67	3.76	5.37
07:09 +11’	1.66▼	3.80▲	5.42▲
19:33 +144’	1.65▼	3.82▲	5.51▲
22:47 +30’	1.63▼	3.86▲	5.64▲
12:23 +14’	1.63▲	3.82▼	5.64

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2.25

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Corinthians 3–3–0 Vitoria

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/04/26 Brazil Serie A	Vitoria	0-0 HT 0-0	Corinthians
25/10/25 Brazil Serie A	Vitoria	0-1 HT 0-0	Corinthians
01/06/25 Brazil Serie A	Corinthians	0-0 HT 0-0	Vitoria
09/11/24 Brazil Serie A	Vitoria	1-2 HT 1-1	Corinthians
05/07/24 Brazil Serie A	Corinthians	3-2 HT 2-1	Vitoria
21/10/18 Brazil Serie A	Vitoria	2-2 HT 1-1	Corinthians

Standings · Brazil Serie A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Palmeiras	31	19	9	3	54	22	66
2	Flamengo	30	19	7	4	58	25	64
3	Athletico Paranaense	31	15	8	8	49	37	53
4	Fluminense	30	14	9	7	48	37	51
5	Atletico Mineiro	31	14	8	9	42	35	50
6	EC Bahia	30	13	10	7	44	36	49
7	Cruzeiro	30	14	6	10	46	44	48
8	Sao Paulo	31	12	6	13	36	35	42
9	Santos	30	11	9	10	46	45	42
10	Bragantino	30	11	7	12	38	35	40
11	Botafogo	31	10	9	12	44	48	39
12	Coritiba	31	10	9	12	38	49	39
13	Vitoria	30	10	6	14	33	44	36
14	Mirassol	31	9	9	13	36	44	36
15	Vasco da Gama	30	9	8	13	36	43	35
16	Corinthians	30	8	8	14	31	38	32
17	Internacional	31	7	11	13	33	40	32
18	Gremio	30	7	10	13	32	40	31
19	Remo	30	5	10	15	33	48	25
20	Chapecoense	30	3	9	18	30	62	18

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Corinthians	Vitoria
Palmeiras	1-4 L	0-4 L
Flamengo	1-2 L	0-2 L
Chapecoense	1-2 L	4-0 W
Cruzeiro	1-2 L	1-3 L
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 4 L	1 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Corinthians (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Corinthians

DWLLLLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Palmeiras Brazil Serie A	0-2	1-4	3	7	L
08/10	Internacional Brazil Serie A	0-1	1-2	12	9	L
20/09	Fluminense Brazil Serie A	0-1	1-3	11	8	L
13/09	Flamengo Brazil Serie A	0-0	1-2	0	6	L
07/09	Chapecoense Brazil Serie A	1-1	1-2	5	4	L
30/08	Santos Brazil Serie A	0-1	0-1	8	6	L
24/08	Coritiba Brazil Serie A	0-1	1-2	14	4	L
17/08	Cruzeiro Brazil Serie A	0-1	1-2	3	5	L
09/08	Bragantino Brazil Serie A	0-0	2-0	2	4	W
31/07	Athletico Paranaense Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-0	6	7	D

Vitoria

LLWLLWDLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Sao Paulo Brazil Serie A	1-1	1-2	2	8	L
08/10	Chapecoense Brazil Serie A	1-0	4-0	3	5	W
20/09	Cruzeiro Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-3	8	3	L
13/09	Mirassol Brazil Serie A	2-0	2-2	5	10	D
08/09	Gremio Brazil Serie A	0-0	1-0	6	7	W
29/08	Atletico Mineiro Brazil Serie A	0-1	1-2	5	3	L
23/08	EC Bahia Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-2	7	7	L
16/08	Botafogo Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-0	8	6	W
10/08	Flamengo Brazil Serie A	0-1	0-2	1	2	L
30/07	Palmeiras Brazil Serie A	0-2	0-4	6	7	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Corinthians vs Vitoria?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Corinthians win (58%). Probabilities: Corinthians 58%, draw 27%, Vitoria 16%.

How many goals are expected in Corinthians vs Vitoria?

The model expects 2.19 goals (Corinthians 1.52 · Vitoria 0.66), with a 52% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Corinthians vs Vitoria?

The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.