Football · Brazil Serie A · 30/10, 00:00

Prediction: Vasco da Gama vs Flamengo

Team pages: Vasco da Gama · Flamengo

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.28Total

Vasco da Gama0.93

Flamengo1.35

1X2

25% 29% 46%

Vasco da Gama Draw Flamengo

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Vasco da Gama 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

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Flamengo 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Vasco da Gama 0–3–3 Flamengo (6 last)

Flamengo2-2Vasco da Gama
Flamengo1-0Vasco da Gama
Flamengo1-1Vasco da Gama
Vasco da Gama0-0Flamengo
Flamengo2-1Vasco da Gama
Vasco da Gama0-1Flamengo

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Vasco da Gama 1522 · Flamengo 1625

	Vasco da Gama	Draw	Flamengo
Our model	24%	30%	45%
Market	26%	27%	47%

Estimated total (ours) 2.28 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Flamengo (rating 1522 vs 1625).
H2H favours Flamengo: 3-3-0.
High corners: 14.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Vasco da Gama	Flamengo
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.2	2.2 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.1	0.8 / 0
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/60/10%	60/40/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.2 / 7.1	4.2 / 7.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0	5 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.60

X3.40

22.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.82

2 (-0.5)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.88

Under 2.51.98

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:20

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.2%

Time*	1	X	2
00:05 +16’	3.60	3.40	2.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Vasco da Gama 0–3–3 Flamengo

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/05/26 Brazil Serie A	Flamengo	2-2 HT 1-0	Vasco da Gama
22/01/26 Brazil Campeonato Carioca	Flamengo	1-0 HT 0-0	Vasco da Gama
21/09/25 Brazil Serie A	Flamengo	1-1 HT 1-1	Vasco da Gama
19/04/25 Brazil Serie A	Vasco da Gama	0-0 HT 0-0	Flamengo
08/03/25 Brazil Campeonato Carioca	Flamengo	2-1 HT 1-1	Vasco da Gama
01/03/25 Brazil Campeonato Carioca	Vasco da Gama	0-1 HT 0-0	Flamengo

Standings · Brazil Serie A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Flamengo	31	20	7	4	61	25	67
2	Palmeiras	31	19	9	3	54	22	66
3	Athletico Paranaense	31	15	8	8	49	37	53
4	Cruzeiro	31	15	6	10	50	46	51
5	Fluminense	31	14	9	8	49	39	51
6	Atletico Mineiro	31	14	8	9	42	35	50
7	EC Bahia	31	13	10	8	44	39	49
8	Santos	31	12	9	10	48	46	45
9	Sao Paulo	31	12	6	13	36	35	42
10	Bragantino	31	11	8	12	39	36	41
11	Botafogo	31	10	9	12	44	48	39
12	Coritiba	31	10	9	12	38	49	39
13	Vitoria	31	10	7	14	34	45	37
14	Mirassol	31	9	9	13	36	44	36
15	Vasco da Gama	30	9	8	13	36	43	35
16	Corinthians	31	8	9	14	32	39	33
17	Internacional	31	7	11	13	33	40	32
18	Gremio	31	7	10	14	34	44	31
19	Remo	31	5	11	15	34	49	26
20	Chapecoense	30	3	9	18	30	62	18

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Vasco da Gama	Flamengo
Remo	0-0 D	1-0 W
Botafogo	2-1 W	3-0 W
Fluminense	0-1 L	1-0 W
Cruzeiro	3-1 W	1-2 L
Santos	0-3 L	2-2 D
EC Bahia	0-0 D	3-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 2 L	4 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Flamengo (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Vasco da Gama

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Sao Paulo Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-1	4	4	L
10/10	Remo Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-0	6	4	D
08/10	Botafogo Brazil Serie A	1-0	2-1	14	1	W
20/09	Coritiba Brazil Serie A	2-0	5-0	12	3	W
12/09	Gremio Brazil Serie A	0-1	2-1	5	6	W
06/09	Fluminense Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-1	6	6	L
30/08	Cruzeiro Brazil Serie A	1-0	3-1	11	3	W
23/08	Palmeiras Brazil Serie A	0-0	1-4	3	4	L
16/08	Santos Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-3	4	2	L
09/08	EC Bahia Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-0	6	3	D

Flamengo

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	EC Bahia Brazil Serie A	0-0	3-0	14	6	W
11/10	Fluminense Brazil Serie A	0-0	1-0	4	7	W
09/10	Santos Brazil Serie A	2-0	2-2	5	11	D
20/09	Bragantino Brazil Serie A	1-0	2-1	2	6	W
13/09	Corinthians Brazil Serie A	0-0	2-1	20	6	W
06/09	Remo Brazil Serie A	0-0	1-0	9	4	W
03/09	Mirassol Brazil Serie A	2-0	2-0	9	2	W
30/08	Botafogo Brazil Serie A	1-0	3-0	5	2	W
23/08	Cruzeiro Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-2	3	4	L
16/08	Mirassol Brazil Serie A	1-0	5-1	3	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Vasco da Gama vs Flamengo?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Flamengo win (46%). Probabilities: Vasco da Gama 25%, draw 29%, Flamengo 46%.

How many goals are expected in Vasco da Gama vs Flamengo?

The model expects 2.28 goals (Vasco da Gama 0.93 · Flamengo 1.35), with a 54% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Vasco da Gama vs Flamengo?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.