Football · Brazil Serie A · 28/10, 23:30

Prediction: Bragantino vs Chapecoense

Team pages: Bragantino · Chapecoense

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.02Total

Bragantino2.28

Chapecoense0.74

1X2

72% 19% 10%

Bragantino Draw Chapecoense

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

2-0 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Bragantino 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

DWLLDLLDWD

Chapecoense 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LDWLWLDLLL

Head-to-head

Bragantino 2–1 Chapecoense (3 last)

Chapecoense1-2Bragantino
Bragantino1-2Chapecoense
Chapecoense0-3Bragantino

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Bragantino 1477 · Chapecoense 1429

	Bragantino	Draw	Chapecoense
Our model	71%	19%	10%
Market	72%	19%	10%

Estimated total (ours) 3.02 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Bragantino (rating 1477 vs 1429).
H2H favours Bragantino: 2-0-1.
High corners: 11.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Bragantino	Chapecoense
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.4	1.1 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.7	0.6 / 1.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	20/20/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 7	2.3 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.2	3.7 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.30

X5.00

29.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.90

2 (+1.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 31.98

Under 31.88

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:27

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.30 → 1.30	Bet365 1.30
X	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00
2	9.50 → 9.50	Bet365 9.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.4%

Time*	1	X	2
00:09 +18’	1.30	5.00	9.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Bragantino 2–0–1 Chapecoense

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/05/26 Brazil Serie A	Chapecoense	1-2 HT 1-1	Bragantino
12/09/21 Brazil Serie A	Bragantino	1-2 HT 1-0	Chapecoense
30/05/21 Brazil Serie A	Chapecoense	0-3 HT 0-2	Bragantino

Standings · Brazil Serie A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Flamengo	31	20	7	4	61	25	67
2	Palmeiras	31	19	9	3	54	22	66
3	Athletico Paranaense	31	15	8	8	49	37	53
4	Cruzeiro	31	15	6	10	50	46	51
5	Fluminense	31	14	9	8	49	39	51
6	Atletico Mineiro	31	14	8	9	42	35	50
7	EC Bahia	31	13	10	8	44	39	49
8	Santos	31	12	9	10	48	46	45
9	Sao Paulo	31	12	6	13	36	35	42
10	Bragantino	31	11	8	12	39	36	41
11	Botafogo	31	10	9	12	44	48	39
12	Coritiba	31	10	9	12	38	49	39
13	Vitoria	31	10	7	14	34	45	37
14	Mirassol	31	9	9	13	36	44	36
15	Vasco da Gama	30	9	8	13	36	43	35
16	Corinthians	31	8	9	14	32	39	33
17	Internacional	31	7	11	13	33	40	32
18	Gremio	31	7	10	14	34	44	31
19	Remo	31	5	11	15	34	49	26
20	Chapecoense	30	3	9	18	30	62	18

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Bragantino	Chapecoense
Atletico Mineiro	0-1 L	1-1 D
Botafogo	1-1 D	0-1 L
EC Bahia	2-3 L	3-3 D
Sao Paulo	1-2 L	1-0 W
Gremio	1-0 W	1-3 L
Athletico Paranaense	1-1 D	1-4 L
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 3 L	1 W 2 D 3 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Bragantino

DWLLDLLDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/10	Remo Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-1	3	3	D
13/10	Cruzeiro Brazil Serie A	3-1	4-2	7	4	W
08/10	Mirassol Brazil Serie A	0-0	1-1	11	1	D
03/10	Atletico Mineiro Brazil Serie A	0-1	0-1	10	2	L
20/09	Flamengo Brazil Serie A	0-1	1-2	5	6	L
13/09	Botafogo Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-1	4	6	D
05/09	EC Bahia Brazil Serie A	2-2	2-3	10	3	L
30/08	Sao Paulo Brazil Serie A	0-2	1-2	7	5	L
23/08	Gremio Brazil Serie A	0-0	1-0	8	5	W
15/08	Athletico Paranaense Brazil Serie A	0-0	1-1	5	1	D

Chapecoense

LDWLWLDLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Botafogo Brazil Serie A	0-1	0-1	4	1	L
13/10	Athletico Paranaense Brazil Serie A	0-3	1-4	6	3	L
08/10	Vitoria Brazil Serie A	0-1	0-4	6	5	L
19/09	Atletico Mineiro Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-1	2	3	D
12/09	Internacional Brazil Serie A	1-1	1-2	4	8	L
07/09	Corinthians Brazil Serie A	1-1	2-1	2	4	W
30/08	Gremio Brazil Serie A	1-2	1-3	7	4	L
23/08	Sao Paulo Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-0	7	4	W
16/08	EC Bahia Brazil Serie A	1-2	3-3	3	3	D
09/08	Coritiba Brazil Serie A	0-1	1-2	6	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Bragantino vs Chapecoense?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Bragantino win (72%). Probabilities: Bragantino 72%, draw 19%, Chapecoense 10%.

How many goals are expected in Bragantino vs Chapecoense?

The model expects 3.02 goals (Bragantino 2.28 · Chapecoense 0.74), with a 52% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Bragantino vs Chapecoense?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.